$2 NLHE 6-max: OESD, big bluff sizing on the turn.

[Casey55]

pokerstars, Hold'em No Limit - $0.01/$0.02 - 5 players
Hand delivered by Upswing Poker

UTG: $2.31 (116 bb)
CO: $1.58 (79 bb)
BU: $1.31 (66 bb)
SB: $2.00 (100 bb)
BB (Hero): $2.95 (148 bb)

Pre-Flop: ($0.03) Hero is BB with Q♥ J♥
1 fold, CO calls $0.02, 1 fold, SB calls $0.01, Hero raises to $0.10, CO calls $0.08, 1 fold

Flop: ($0.22) T♦ 7♦ 3♠ (2 players)
Hero bets $0.14, CO calls $0.14

Turn: ($0.50) K♣ (2 players)
Hero bets $0.38

I wanted to get a 10 to fold but should I be targeting Tx? what do you think about this bluff? can we get the same results with a cheaper bluff? I guess we need villain to fold roughly 43% of his range here, I'm under the impression he will likely fold more than that but not 100% sure

 

[Hermus]

If you think he's folding more than the breakeven percentage it's a profitable bluff. You have some real equity with the open ender with one card to come so even if villain under-folds it might be a profitable bet. Nothing wrong with the sizing. The reason we size up on the turn from the smallish standard c-bet on the flop is that both players represent a stronger range after bet/calling the flop. i.e. we can target strong hands with our value combo's and we can't expect too many total junk combo's in villains range.

It's always a bit tricky to determine a limp/call range, let alone a flop call range, for a random player since they don't really play a refined strategy. Limp/calling pre is also often a sign of a weak passive player who we want to under-bluff most of the time precisely because they tend to under-fold most spots. QJ is drawing to the nuts though so if we are ever betting non-made hands QJs and nut-flush draws are likely candidates. We have plenty of value combo's since we're playing an uncapped range on a king-high board.

 

[fundiver199]

I think, the hand is played fine, and I very much agree with the previous comment. I dont think, you are getting a fishy limper to fold a T on the turn, but maybe he fold some weaker pairs like A3 or 75, unless he is a total whale. Or even A high, if he floated you with something like A5. On the river I would tend to give up, unless I improve.

 

[mktpppr]

P: standard.

F: cbet slightly bigger to 67-75% pot, fine as played.

T: perfect.

We're targeting 7x 3x Ax and draws to fold on turn. Tx is a bonus.