This is a discussion on $2 NLHE 6-max: Did I over fold this set? within the online poker forums, in the Cash Game Hand Analysis section; Hi guys appreciate your thoughts on this hand, I am not sure if I overfolded but villains stats were 62 vpip 2pfr, so for him
Hi guys appreciate your thoughts on this hand, I am not sure if I overfolded but villains stats were 62 vpip 2pfr, so for him to show such aggression was unusual. Let me know what you think. https://www.cardschat.com/replayer/1tEPzTd
It's a close call. His call in the small blind probably indicates he/she doesn't have TT (or AA or KK or QQ or JJ) because he would have reraised with it, or should have. On 2cent tables, though, people don't always play the way they should so unless you have a read on the player, I'd say they didn't have TT+. Would the villain play 99 or 88 or 55 that way? Possibly. 77 and 44 are in their range so you are 50-50 against those holdings. Is T7, 53 or 85 in his range? Probably not. 89 is in their range but you aren't dead if the villain has a straight. There are other hands he could play that way which you are beating, like 76 (less likely because you hold two sixes), A♣9♣, A♣8♣, A♣5♣ and A♣4♣. You are holding a club with lessens the chance of them having a flush draw or completing the flush draw if you called. Putting all that into Equilab evaluates to you having 58% equity which means you should call. If you remove the 55 from the villain's holdings, your equity drops to 54% So unless I missed something, it looks like a call.
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I am fine checking this back. I dont think, betting this han really accomplish anything against two opponents.
Great turn card obviously, since you now have a set, however some straights are now possible with 98 and 85, and there is a lead and a raise in front of you. Even so I am never folding here, and its kind of close between calling and putting in the cold 3-bet. I do lean a bit more towards calling though, because both these guys can definitely have all 32 combos of 98 and 85 in their range.
Now SB puts in a 3-bet, and BB gets out of the way, which is fine, because now you have one player less to worry about, and SB is also the shorter stack. Its a simple math based decision now, since he has essentially moved all in. You are not going to just call and then fold on the river for his last 30c, and he is not going to fold either. So if you continue here, you are going to move all in, and he is going to call, so we simply treat this as if, he had shoved his 1,41$ into the pot. Which mean you have to put in 1,17 to win 3,21, so you need 36% equity.
Spots like these are, what the free program Equilab is for, so if you dont have it already, then please download it and install on your computer. We plug in the board and our hand, and now we assign him some different ranges. We start with the most obvious situation, that he turned a straight, and lets just give him all 32 combos of 98 and 85, since the HUD tells us, he is playing almost any two cards. You have 22,7% equity, so thats obviously a fold.
However he probably dont always have just exclusively a straight, so lets see, what happen, if we widen his range a bit. Lets start by giving him sets and top two pair with T7. I think, thats definitely reasonable, and now you have 37% equity, which mean, you can make a break even call. Now lets go even wider and give him some other two pair combos as well. T6 and T4 is certainly possible, if he can have 85. Now you have 48% equity, and note that I have not even added a single bluff but only hands, that he might overvalue and play to fast.
So while its not a great spot, I think, you have to close your eyes and make the call. Just because he is a fish and very passive before the flop, does not mean, you can narrow his postflop range down to just only the nuts. There can be some second nut type hands as well, and you beat the vast majority of those.