This is a discussion on $2 NLHE 6-max: Flop decision within the online poker forums, in the Cash Game Hand Analysis section; Mp 82/23 fish
sb 48/18 fish
only 23 hands on each both playing short stacked
Im not sure i can do much else other than
Facing a tiny 3bet from the guy who has almost no money... I'm fine with this 4bet. In fact I may even consider going a bit larger, to 40-50c. When SB cold calls and is a passive whale, there's no reason to think they have a ton of strong hands.
Anyway both players call, and we go to a flop. We flop reasonably well, and certainly this would warrant a cbet, but the SB leads right out. This... this is not that good for us. The guy is passive, but was willing to get into a 4bet pot with his holding. I wouldn't expect him to lead basically any bluffs here, except for MAYBE some flush draws.
I would expect a BUNCH of KQ, QJ, AQ, KJ, sets, and maybe some weird QTs or T9s. And he's folding NONE of that. Plus most of his FD's are already Qx or open ended anyway. The FD's that aren't already included in the hands I listed would be hands like AJss and AKss and... I can't even think of other hands that he'd likely have in a 4bet pot, but being generous maybe we give him every AXss?
So if he's never folding, we know that to get it in here we'd be risking his stack $1.30, to win the flop pot and his stack, which is $2.08. Our breakeven equity here is $1.30 / ($2.08 + $1.30) = 1.3/3.38 = 38.5% equity. That's a LOT. I doubt we have it, but let's plug this into PokerCruncher.
Best Case Scenario (removing a BUNCH of hands I think he'd still probably do this with that beat us, just due to preflop action or not leading them, like sets):
AQs, AsKs, AsJs, As8s-As2s, KJs+, QTs+, AQo
And by the way, this is all assuming that MP has 2 napkins, never a FD, never a Jx hand that can chop with us for the main pot as well. So I'd be sighing but probably just folding here. The guy has effectively gone all in with this lead, and he's most likely way ahead of us here most of the time. Just cause he's a whale doesn't mean you're always ahead equity wise.
very detailed thanks very much , i need to do some more work with these spots with equity calculaions it's been a few years since ive done any real detailed analysis. I haven't played much in recent years so im just shaking some of the rust of off at the moment but thanks again much asppreciated.
I pretty much agree with the other answer. I dont think, he is ever leading here with something, he is then going to fold to a jam, and to profitably jam a draw we almost always need fold equity.
So I perfer to just let this one go and take a note one, what he had. This is an important aspect in multiway pots, when someone is already all in. Sure in this case there was a small side pot, but he still have less incentive to bluff, and we dont need to call to see his hand.
If I was going to continue here, I would just call and pretty much take it as a 1-card draw looking to get out on the turn, unless I improve. But its dicy, because only 3 offsuit Kｴs give us the nuts, and it can be difficult to get paid on a 1-liner.