This is a discussion on $2 NLHE 6-max: Deep stacked with top set and bad turn card within the online poker forums, in the Cash Game Hand Analysis section; Winning Poker, Hold'em No Limit - $0.01/$0.02 - 6 players
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UTG: $2.00 (100 bb)
MP: $2.46 (123 bb)
CO: $0.82 (41 bb)
BU: $3.08 (154
Is checking back the turn standard here or should I continue with a smallish bet to get to the river cheaper and potentially fill up? I was not paying enough attention during this hand and did not realize villains AF was so high. Infinite AF just means he has never made a post-flop call right? Should I be looking at this stat here when deciding to call his turn bet? I feel like this player could definitely be the type to bluff on a scary board like this. This in combination with the great implied odds if I hit an out and he isn't bluffing makes me think I should have called here. Thoughts?
Preflop: Standard. Flop: This is board is great for your range, so I would advise to range bet small, like 25%. However, if you want use bigger sizing, I would not bet AA, rather have it in checking range, because you block all villain's top pairs. Turn: I like check. However when villain bets it's a mandatory call. Your checking range is quite weak, so villain easily might be value betting with 2 pairs and small sets. Also, villain might be bluffing on a scary board and on top of that you are blocking AQ, one of his most likely hands. And on top of all of that, even if villain has Q, you have outs to full house. Folding here is a huge mistake.
To start I would have bet more on the 3-bet and bet more than 1/2 pot on the flop. The question really is, "Does Villain have a queen?"
Villain opened on the button which indicates a pretty wide range, but she just called the 3-bet, which tends to deny big pairs. That leaves Villain with suited connectors, suited aces and big aces, but Hero has two aces and we see one on the flop so there is only one combo for the aces so only 4 combos of AQ. Is Villain calling KQo? I don't think so, KQs? OK 4 more combos, give her QJs for 4 more.
What other combos could she have? AK, AJ, AT, A9, A8, A7, but only one comb each. KJs, JTs, T9s, 98s, 87s, & 76s and JJ, TT, 99 & 88. Call it 54 no queen as opposed to 12 more with a queen, call it 1 out of 5.
What other hands losing hands would Villain bet on the turn? flush draw, AK, KJ, Thre look to be at least 12. I think Hero has to call.
Think about just how stupid the average American is. Half the people are dumber than that, George Carlin RIP
re: Poker & $2 NLHE 6-max: Deep stacked with top set and bad turn card
I think checking the turn says, "oh snap, villain might have the Q." I'm going with foot on the gas here because your SPR before the turn is less than 4:1. HUD stats are helpful for sure but I'm betting heavy on the flop with such a wet board because a call from a tight player isn't very likely with a draw. As the preflop aggressor you cannot give villain a reasonable bet to call on a board like this if they are tight. With a reasonable bankroll you can just top off if villain raises. Only reason I would check here is if I had the nuts.
I only intend to make a constructive opinion. But if you are folding this hand, you are literally folding 100% of your range. Since your set of aces is the second best possible hand in this texture and with which you should call, up to the largest bet size that villain can make, both on the turn and river.
It would not be wise to consider AF at this time, since from broad positions like BTN, it is more likely that there is a greater degree of aggressiveness in the villain, compared to tighter positions. That means that if, for example, the villain has an AF: 0, he could exploit this parameter and print a lot of action on these types of dangerous boards, when he has position.