$2 NLHE 6-max: Bad bluff catch board vs aggro opponent

[braun_kan]

Winning Poker, Hold'em No Limit - $0.01/$0.02 - 4 players
Replay this hand on CardsChat

UTG: $2.00 (100 bb)
BU: $2.00 (100 bb)
SB (Hero): $3.75 (188 bb)
BB: $2.21 (111 bb)

Pre-Flop: ($0.03) Hero is SB with A♣ Q♠
2 players fold, Hero raises to $0.06, BB calls $0.04

Flop: ($0.12) 3♣ 7♥ Q♥ (2 players)
Hero bets $0.07, BB raises to $0.21, Hero calls $0.14

Turn: ($0.54) 9♦ (2 players)
Hero checks, BB bets $0.29, Hero calls $0.29

River: ($1.12) 4♥ (2 players)
Hero checks, BB bets $0.85, SB (Hero) folds

Villain Stats: 21/18 AF:5 (329 hands)

On the river I couldn't think of any bluffs villain has that I am beating. Does a player with 5 AF have bluffs on this river? I am getting 30% to call. If I give villain some bluffs such as AJo,ATo,KJo,KTo with the ace and king of hearts respectively then I have 33% equity against him with the following range: https://i.imgur.com/YAHUPxJ.png Though I think this would still be a -EV call after rake. But if villain ever has a complete air bluff here like KJo then calling becomes profitable.

 

[Sidetracked]

It's a nasty spot, and the fact that hearts got there on the river doesn't help.

I think your fold is going to be good most of the time.

 

[mktpppr]

P: fine.

F: cbet much bigger to 75-100% pot.

As played (58% pot cbet), vs raise, yes cbet/call. Cbet/3bet is overplaying our hand and cbet/fold isn't practical.

T: fine. We can check/call vs reasonable bet one more time.

R: fine.

Population in nl2 isn't bluff jamming rivers enough to bluff catch.

Also, for PokerTracker 4 specifically, AF of 5 only means villain doesn't like to call vs a bet postflop: it doesn't say anything about whether he raises or folds vs a bet.

AF by itself is useless in determining someone's aggression postflop.

 

[lanelosee100]

good fold. opponent probably had the flush. if he bluffed it was a good timing

 

[gustav197poker]

AF: 5 in + 370 hands is enough to say that this V has a significant degree of aggressiveness. Against that you can 3-bet on the flop and then push on the turn. Sometimes you will find that V has all the sets in his range. However, in a passive aggressive player, your offensive lines would often block splits, when your V could have the same hand with the A of heart.
Instead here, when you simply call on the flop and then call on the turn, your villain is forced to tighten his attack range further.
That means that OTR the split is less likely now, because the V has a position with respect to you and does not need to risk more when your line seems strong. Therefore, I agree to fold the river against these types of villains. But my suggestion is to attack more when you have interesting hands like in this case.
Greetings.

 

[John A]

Please 3-bet the flop all day. In a BvB spot 4 handed, you want to make sure you're aggressive, especially on that board vs. an aggro opponent. He may spaze out on you and you can fist pump call.

CR the turn.

River is close, I lean towards call based on the opponent, but I don't hate a fold at these stakes.

I guess you played pre-flop ok, but to answer you question, does someone w/ AF of 5 have river bluffs here... yes. Generally speaking they are way over bluffing w/ anything over AF of 4. And AF is calculated by bets+raises / calls. So it's looking how often someone bets and raises versus calling.