This is a discussion on $2 NLHE 6-max: 3 bet pot, double paired board, with flush draw within the online poker forums, in the Cash Game Hand Analysis section; Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 30/26/1
Another rough turn card. A larger reraise on the river probably had me folding. How would you play this one?
Pacific Poker -
I like, how you played preflop, flop and turn. The river is a very interesting spot. I dont think, he ever has a 3 in his hand, but a K is certainly possible. On the other side he can also have a lot of pocket pairs, that did not want to give up on the flop, or he could have some random float. So the question is, do we go for some "thin mint value" with our flush, as they called it on the Stones live stream? And if so what is the plan, if we get raised?
The alternative is to check, and then I think, the plan pretty much has to be to check-call. You block AK and KQ, which are some of the more likely KX combos in his range, and by checking twice you would sort of underrep your hand. So check-folding is not really an option here I think. If he has the K, he is going to get paid. Good for him.
You did go for the thin mint value, and you did get raised, which is pretty gross. You are getting 4:1 so need 20% equity to break even. Going this small can certainly induce a random spazz, because your hand looks kind of exactly like, what it is. Maybe he dont put you on a flush, but you might also play like this with AA or QQ trying to get that same crying call out of his 99-JJ. So as played I think, you made the right decision to call