This is a discussion on $2 NLHE 6-max: $2 NLHE 6-max:villain river shove within the online poker forums, in the Cash Game Hand Analysis section; Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD Poker HUD and Database Software
NL Holdem 0.02(BB)
HERO ($1.98) [VPIP: 23.3% | PFR: 17.5% | AGG: 30.9%
No point in raising the poster and SB limping behind with T3o so nothing to analyse really. CO posted so could literally have any 2. SB is slightly tighter but only slightly.
You flop the world, but the board is scary with flush and straight draw possibilities. I like leading out here to tax the draws and allow the obviously recreational players to make a calling mistake. Sizing up against these players to get maximum value is also smart.
A5 and 65 get there. Maybe A5s gets raised pre and it's not scary enough to slow down anyway. We can still get value from a naked 5 or ace, clubs, spades, and overpairs.
All draws missed so we bet for value. The CO raise doesn't really make any sense apart from all villain's boats + or total air. Vulnerable hands like straights, trips and two-pair would've likely bet earlier on this wet board. We can't know for sure though because CO is obviously a recreational player. Slowplayed 44, 22, and nines that got there on the river still make the most sense for a value bet though.
The question remains if we can attribute enough bluffs to villain's range to make this a profitable call. Although this player type at, at these stakes, is normally very value heavy, this line with this board runout makes very little sense for most value combo's. Considering most draws missed, and villain is playing a very wide range, I guess we can hero call a lot and expect to be up against missed draws a lot of the time.
We cant rely on a poster to build the pot for us, so I like your decision to simply lead out. I also like your sizing. The pot is so small, so if we want to get any kind of money in later, we need to start building it up now.
Not the best card, since it completed A5 and 65, but still on board with betting for value and also using a very large sizing. There are a bunch of draws, which we can charge.
On board with going for another street of value and also with sizing it down to half pot, since we are now trying to get called by fairly weak hands like sticky 4x or maybe a hand like 98 of clubs, which were trying to hit a flush but accidentally rivered top pair instead.
When he move all in for more than the size of the pot, I prefer to fold. There are some busted draws out there (which he did in fact have), but as a general rule for the micros a big raise on the river is almost always the nuts. This time it was not, but that is the socalled exception, which prove the rule.
Also T3 should be one of the worst hands, you take like this for value, so if you are calling T3, you are almost certainly calling to much in a generally underbluffed spot. Its ok to sometimes let people bluff you, if they are willing to risk 1,55$ to pick up 0,75$. This need to work for him almost 70% of the time to just be break even.
I agree with fundiver, have learned from calling a ton on the river at 2nl tha when they wanna put their stack in on the river they have it, probrably a better 3x or a boat, have not looked at spoilers yet.
Edit. Looked st spoiler, I would consider this an outlier and long term would still fold without reads. Nice to take note this player capable of bluffing broken draws for 2x pot.
Thanks for the feed back, i actually considered folding but villains line was just too strange.
Dont think it would be particularly strange for him to take this line with a boat. He had position, so there was no risk, a street got checked through, and with a boat he did not need to worry about flushes or straights coming in. In fact it would be great for him, if that happened, and you actually made it. So I think, his line certainly represent boats but probably not to much else for value. In fact two other forum members have recently posted fairly similar hands, where they faced a big raise on the river on a paired board, and in both cases the opponent had a boat. So I guess, if we want to justify your call, it is actually better to call with trips rather than a straight, because with trips you at least block some of the boats like 43 and 32 making it more likely, he is bluffing.