$2 NL HE Full Ring: Should I Bluff on the River or Should I Check for Showdown Value?

[PockerGod]

Game

Hold'em

Game Format

No Limit

Stakes

$.01/$.02

Table Format

Full (8-10 seats)

VP$IP

27

PFR

2

AF

1

Currency

$

Villain Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 27/2/1
I was not sure if I should be betting on the river or check/calling a small raise for showdown value. The villain had fishy PF stats but had solid aggressive post flop stats with 83% c-bet, 59% fold to c-bet on the flop. This is at 2NL, so how would you play it at this stake and how would you play it in a vacuum where stats and stakes are not variables?

Winning Poker, Hold'em No Limit - $0.01/$0.02 - 8 players
Replay this hand on CardsChat

UTG: $1.60 (80 bb)
UTG+1: $1.62 (81 bb)
MP: $3.00 (150 bb)
MP+1: $0.53 (27 bb)
CO: $0.73 (37 bb)
BU: $2.42 (121 bb)
SB (Hero): $2.06 (103 bb)
BB: $1.52 (76 bb)

Pre-Flop: ($0.03) Hero is SB with K♠ J♠
5 players fold, BTN calls $0.02, Hero raises to $0.09, 1 fold, BTN calls $0.07

Flop: ($0.20) 8♦ J♣ Q♦ (2 players)
Hero bets $0.13, BTN calls $0.13

Turn: ($0.46) Q♠ (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $0.11, Hero calls $0.11

River: ($0.68) 6♣ (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN checks

 

[fundiver199]

Preflop
I like the isolation, but it would also be ok to just complete this hand and look to keep the pot small out of position.

Flop
You flop second pair on a very connected board. Personally I start with a check here, but I dont think, C-betting is terrible.

Turn
This was a good card for you, because nothing got there, which did not beat you already, and now its less likely, he has a Q. For that reason as played I lean towards betting again to charge draws and worse two pair hands. But check-calling is also fine.

River
As played on the turn the standard play is to check to him against. Betting would be out of flow and a so called donk bet. I could get on board with that, because his turn bet was so small. I think, that if he had a strong hand like trips, he would have bet more than just $0,11 into a pot of $0,46. His bet looks pretty weak, so I would put him on a range consisting mostly of draws and worse two pair hands. Which mean, you could make a bet for value but not a bluff, as you suggest in the title. The purpose of a bet would be to get worse hands like JT, J9, A8 and so on to call. The purpose would not be to make better hands like AJ, KK or AA fold, because its pretty unlikely, he has them, and if he does, he is almost certainly going to call.

 

[Poker_Mike]

Villain Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 27/2/1
I was not sure if I should be betting on the river or check/calling a small raise for showdown value. The villain had fishy PF stats but had solid aggressive post flop stats with 83% c-bet, 59% fold to c-bet on the flop. This is at 2NL, so how would you play it at this stake and how would you play it in a vacuum where stats and stakes are not variables?

Winning Poker, Hold'em No Limit - $0.01/$0.02 - 8 players
Replay this hand on CardsChat

UTG: $1.60 (80 bb)
UTG+1: $1.62 (81 bb)
MP: $3.00 (150 bb)
MP+1: $0.53 (27 bb)
CO: $0.73 (37 bb)
BU: $2.42 (121 bb)
SB (Hero): $2.06 (103 bb)
BB: $1.52 (76 bb)

Pre-Flop: ($0.03) Hero is SB with K♠ J♠
5 players fold, BTN calls $0.02, Hero raises to $0.09, 1 fold, BTN calls $0.07

Flop: ($0.20) 8♦ J♣ Q♦ (2 players)
Hero bets $0.13, BTN calls $0.13

Turn: ($0.46) Q♠ (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $0.11, Hero calls $0.11

River: ($0.68) 6♣ (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN checks

You have two pair on a paired board.

There are hands that beat you like 9T, AJ and of course any Q.

It's low micro stakes - but what would your opponent call you with?

At micro stakes he could call you for curiosity and other bad play.

But generally only a better hand would call your bet.

And - what would you do if he raised you big? He should think about doing so even with air.

Good luck !

 

[fundiver199]

And - what would you do if he raised you big? He should think about doing so even with air.

Against a good opponent we should definitely look to check-call the river. But against someone, who limped their button in a cash game and has stats like VPIP 27 / PFR 2, we can do a lot of bet-folding for value without worrying to much about ever getting bluffed. Its kind of the bread and butter of soft games

 

[puzzlefish]

It's looking a lot like a busted flush draw that was played very passively. Sometimes, very rarely, opponents will trap this way on the river while holding the nuts, but in this specific instance I don't think you will be extracting any value out from this spot in the long term whether you check or bet on the river.

 

[Aballinamion]

Villain Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 27/2/1
I was not sure if I should be betting on the river or check/calling a small raise for showdown value. The villain had fishy PF stats but had solid aggressive post flop stats with 83% c-bet, 59% fold to c-bet on the flop. This is at 2NL, so how would you play it at this stake and how would you play it in a vacuum where stats and stakes are not variables?

Winning Poker, Hold'em No Limit - $0.01/$0.02 - 8 players
Replay this hand on CardsChat

UTG: $1.60 (80 bb)
UTG+1: $1.62 (81 bb)
MP: $3.00 (150 bb)
MP+1: $0.53 (27 bb)
CO: $0.73 (37 bb)
BU: $2.42 (121 bb)
SB (Hero): $2.06 (103 bb)
BB: $1.52 (76 bb)

Pre-Flop: ($0.03) Hero is SB with K♠ J♠
5 players fold, BTN calls $0.02, Hero raises to $0.09, 1 fold, BTN calls $0.07

Flop: ($0.20) 8♦ J♣ Q♦ (2 players)
Hero bets $0.13, BTN calls $0.13

Turn: ($0.46) Q♠ (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $0.11, Hero calls $0.11

River: ($0.68) 6♣ (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN checks

You played the hand just fine. Preflop sizing is good and we couldn't fold on the turn given such a small price. Raising against these type of player is not a good idea, and the check on the river is okay too.

 

[ScooperNova]

Seems fine to me. We have to consider the opponent was on a draw and wouldn't call anything anyway. If you bet and they have a very strong holding, the cost to call will also be greater. If they are strong, their bet will likely be a smaller value bet, to which you could fold or call-either way, saving money.

 

[fundiver199]

If they are strong, their bet will likely be a smaller value bet, to which you could fold or call-either way, saving money.

If we check the river, as hero did, the intension is clearly to check-call. It is however sizing dependant. If a passive opponent like this bets small on the turn and now bet full pot on a blank river, then I would actually give him credit for having trips or better and fold.