$2 NL HE 6-max: I think I made the right fold but gto wiz said 0 ev

ratbat615

ratbat615

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8F6AC181 E0E6 4525 A283 F3835F0480C4
pokerstars Zoom, Hold'em No Limit - $0.01/$0.02 - 6 players
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julimatt (UTG): $2.04 (102 bb)
ratbat615 (MP): $3.56 (178 bb)
vikragnar (CO): $2.26 (113 bb)
gilberto98 (BU): $3.54 (177 bb)
leedsrounder (SB): $2.22 (111 bb)
ToddyZZZ (BB): $7.48 (374 bb)

Pre-Flop: ($0.03) Hero (ratbat615) is MP with J J
1 fold, ratbat615 (MP) raises to $0.04, 2 players fold, leedsrounder (SB) 3-bets to $0.16, 1 fold, ratbat615 (MP) calls $0.12

Flop:
($0.34) 4 5 2 (2 players)
leedsrounder (SB) checks, ratbat615 (MP) bets $0.17, leedsrounder (SB) raises to $0.42, ratbat615 (MP) folds

Total pot: $0.68 (Rake: $0.02)
leedsrounder (SB) wins $0.66

Pre: I picked up pocket JJs in mp I min raised and the villain 🦹‍♀️ in the sb 3bets to 16 cents about 6 more bigs to call so I call.

Flop: 4 5 2 rainbow and the villain checks so the villain made a big 3bet pre flop so his range is AK or 10s plus but some players like to 3bet suited Ax like A3 A2 A5 so A3 is not impossible anyway I bet about half pot and the villain re raise I am not Familiar with this player so don’t know how the villain plays so I fold.

Summary: I think 🤔 the villain had KKs cause the villain was ready to go all in pre and this was the zoom game so players are very tight. Fast fold. Anyway what do you guys think 🤔 did I make the right fold because gto said I should have went all in.
 

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fundiver199

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I dont really know, what the solver is saying, so I will ignore that and just analyse the hand "old school".

Preflop
Definitely standard to open and also call his 3-bet.

Flop
Bet-folding for value on the flop is extremely exploitable and the only line, you should definitely never take. Its kind of weird, that he check-raised rather than put out the traditional C-bet, but any AX flopped a gutshot, so he can have a ton of bluffs in his range. As played you 100% have to call, but it would also be ok to check back for pot control. Its pretty clear, which cards are bad for you (A or 3), you have position, and you probably cant get 3 streets of value from many worse hands. So its fine to let a turn card roll off then go from there.
 
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Station_Master

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I know it looks grim when you face the check raise, but for such a small size I think you have to continue as fundiver says there are lots of potential bluffs.

The solver probably checks alot on this board as it's bad for the 3bettor and so will therefore have plenty of check raises include AK and AQ. If you've solved the spot have a look, but i imagine that's what's happening and JJ wants to deny equity versus those hands and get it in (it can also get called by TT, 99 I expect). In practice I think call is the better line, as villain likely has fewer bluffs than the solver.
 
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fundiver199

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I ran the spot in GTO Wizard now. There are some slight deviations in bet sizes including HJ opening to 2,5BB rather than min-raising, and effective stacks being 100BB rather than 111BB. But I cant imagine, that this change the solve in any meaningfull way. And to make a short story preflop is of course 100% standard. JJ always open, and when facing the 3-bet it mainly call. It does also 4-bet around 20% of the time, but of course there are no folds preflop.

On the flop SB check 57% of the time, so nothing surpricing about that in solver land. When checked to HJ mostly check back (40%) or bet very small (40%), but a bet of around half pot is used 20% of the time. However with JJ specifically the large bet is used 50% of the time, while the rest is a mix of small bet (35%) and checking back (15%). So Heros bet is in fact the line most commenly chosen by the solver. What the solver never does however is to then fold JJ to a check-raise. JJ is mostly jammed (85%) and less commonly called (15%). So the solver massively disagree with the final fold.
 
Aballinamion

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View attachment 343110
PokerStars Zoom, Hold'em No Limit - $0.01/$0.02 - 6 players
Replay this hand on CardsChat

julimatt (UTG): $2.04 (102 bb)
ratbat615 (MP): $3.56 (178 bb)
vikragnar (CO): $2.26 (113 bb)
gilberto98 (BU): $3.54 (177 bb)
leedsrounder (SB): $2.22 (111 bb)
ToddyZZZ (BB): $7.48 (374 bb)

Pre-Flop: ($0.03) Hero (ratbat615) is MP with J J
1 fold, ratbat615 (MP) raises to $0.04, 2 players fold, leedsrounder (SB) 3-bets to $0.16, 1 fold, ratbat615 (MP) calls $0.12

Flop:
($0.34) 4 5 2 (2 players)
leedsrounder (SB) checks, ratbat615 (MP) bets $0.17, leedsrounder (SB) raises to $0.42, ratbat615 (MP) folds

Total pot: $0.68 (Rake: $0.02)
leedsrounder (SB) wins $0.66

Pre: I picked up pocket JJs in mp I min raised and the villain 🦹‍♀️ in the sb 3bets to 16 cents about 6 more bigs to call so I call.

Flop: 4 5 2 rainbow and the villain checks so the villain made a big 3bet pre flop so his range is AK or 10s plus but some players like to 3bet suited Ax like A3 A2 A5 so A3 is not impossible anyway I bet about half pot and the villain re raise I am not Familiar with this player so don’t know how the villain plays so I fold.

Summary: I think 🤔 the villain had KKs cause the villain was ready to go all in pre and this was the zoom game so players are very tight. Fast fold. Anyway what do you guys think 🤔 did I make the right fold because gto said I should have went all in.
We can raise more large preflop, 2.5x or 3x. I'm not sure about this fold OTF, if villain insists OTT we can fold but right here we still have equity and playability.
 
pentazepam

pentazepam

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I ran the spot in GTO Wizard now. There are some slight deviations in bet sizes including HJ opening to 2,5BB rather than min-raising, and effective stacks being 100BB rather than 111BB. But I cant imagine, that this change the solve in any meaningfull way. And to make a short story preflop is of course 100% standard. JJ always open, and when facing the 3-bet it mainly call. It does also 4-bet around 20% of the time, but of course there are no folds preflop.

On the flop SB check 57% of the time, so nothing surpricing about that in solver land. When checked to HJ mostly check back (40%) or bet very small (40%), but a bet of around half pot is used 20% of the time. However with JJ specifically the large bet is used 50% of the time, while the rest is a mix of small bet (35%) and checking back (15%). So Heros bet is in fact the line most commenly chosen by the solver. What the solver never does however is to then fold JJ to a check-raise. JJ is mostly jammed (85%) and less commonly called (15%). So the solver massively disagree with the final fold.
If both play GTO I think at least half your Overpairs (the better half) almost never fold on this low rainbow board.

But if they play GTO at the lowest nanostakes in hold'em now, I think it's best to start recommending switching to mixed games or PLO.:(
 
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fundiver199

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But if they play GTO at the lowest nanostakes in hold'em now, I think it's best to start recommending switching to mixed games or PLO.:(
They are almost certainly not playing GTO at 2NL. But we have no way of knowing, if a flop check-raise on this board is skewed towards value or semi-bluff. The opponent could be wildly overbluffing, if he C-bet all his overpairs and check-raise all his whiffed AX, because he dont want to check-call with just a gutshot. Raises on the late streets are often skewed towards value, but that is not true on the flop, not even at 2NL. Check-raising the flop is one of the first "bluffy" moves, people tend to learn.
 
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fundiver199

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Just a few more words on, why I dont view this flop check-raise as a particularly value heavy line. In "old school" poker check-raising the flop is used for two different purposes. The first is to be able to play for stacks. But that is mainly in single raised pots. In a 3-bet pot its easy to get all the money in by going bet, bet, jam. Unless stacks are unusually deep of course, but that was not the case here. So if we assume, that the opponent is a somewhat simple player, who is not worrying about being balanced, then why would he check his strong hands on the flop? Which leave the other reason for check-raising, which is to get fold equity.

Now I am not saying, that Hero can never be beat here. But I dont think, this is a spot, where it makes any sense to say, we have a population read, that people are always taking Villains line for value and never bluffing. And then we at least have to defend "correctly", which as already stated definitely includes JJ. Of course it also matters, that Hero most likely dont have QQ+, because those hands are often 4-bet. So JJ is pretty high in Heros range, especially if he dont always defend to the 3-bet with 22-55, because then he dont have all the flopped sets either.
 
ratbat615

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I dont really know, what the solver is saying, so I will ignore that and just analyse the hand "old school".

Preflop
Definitely standard to open and also call his 3-bet.

Flop
Bet-folding for value on the flop is extremely exploitable and the only line, you should definitely never take. Its kind of weird, that he check-raised rather than put out the traditional C-bet, but any AX flopped a gutshot, so he can have a ton of bluffs in his range. As played you 100% have to call, but it would also be ok to check back for pot control. Its pretty clear, which cards are bad for you (A or 3), you have position, and you probably cant get 3 streets of value from many worse hands. So its fine to let a turn card roll off then go from there.
My thought’s exactly I could have checked but I wanted to deny equity but I don’t think that folding is that bad?9
 
ratbat615

ratbat615

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I know it looks grim when you face the check raise, but for such a small size I think you have to continue as fundiver says there are lots of potential bluffs.

The solver probably checks alot on this board as it's bad for the 3bettor and so will therefore have plenty of check raises include AK and AQ. If you've solved the spot have a look, but i imagine that's what's happening and JJ wants to deny equity versus those hands and get it in (it can also get called by TT, 99 I expect). In practice I think call is the better line, as villain likely has fewer bluffs than the solver.
Thank you 🙏 very helpful
 
ratbat615

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I ran the spot in GTO Wizard now. There are some slight deviations in bet sizes including HJ opening to 2,5BB rather than min-raising, and effective stacks being 100BB rather than 111BB. But I cant imagine, that this change the solve in any meaningfull way. And to make a short story preflop is of course 100% standard. JJ always open, and when facing the 3-bet it mainly call. It does also 4-bet around 20% of the time, but of course there are no folds preflop.

On the flop SB check 57% of the time, so nothing surpricing about that in solver land. When checked to HJ mostly check back (40%) or bet very small (40%), but a bet of around half pot is used 20% of the time. However with JJ specifically the large bet is used 50% of the time, while the rest is a mix of small bet (35%) and checking back (15%). So Heros bet is in fact the line most commenly chosen by the solver. What the solver never does however is to then fold JJ to a check-raise. JJ is mostly jammed (85%) and less commonly called (15%). So the solver massively disagree with the final fold.
I know that but I think 🤔 I was beat. But you Analyzed the spot perfect 😍 very helpful thank you 🙏.
 
ratbat615

ratbat615

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Just a few more words on, why I dont view this flop check-raise as a particularly value heavy line. In "old school" poker check-raising the flop is used for two different purposes. The first is to be able to play for stacks. But that is mainly in single raised pots. In a 3-bet pot its easy to get all the money in by going bet, bet, jam. Unless stacks are unusually deep of course, but that was not the case here. So if we assume, that the opponent is a somewhat simple player, who is not worrying about being balanced, then why would he check his strong hands on the flop? Which leave the other reason for check-raising, which is to get fold equity.

Now I am not saying, that Hero can never be beat here. But I dont think, this is a spot, where it makes any sense to say, we have a population read, that people are always taking Villains line for value and never bluffing. And then we at least have to defend "correctly", which as already stated definitely includes JJ. Of course it also matters, that Hero most likely dont have QQ+, because those hands are often 4-bet. So JJ is pretty high in Heros range, especially if he dont always defend to the 3-bet with 22-55, because then he dont have all the flopped sets either.
After looking over the spot I like 👍 jamming .the solver was right but I have played sets like this and even AAs . If I had AK AQ AJ I would just call. Why 3bet post flop,Maybe TTS would 3bet pre but not 22 plus 99 . The villain was trying to play for stacks because of the bet size. This was a zoom game so players are very tight I have seen KKs being checked down on every street with fear of the A on board. And I have seen players limp with AK . Zoom games are very tight.
 
ratbat615

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We can raise more large preflop, 2.5x or 3x. I'm not sure about this fold OTF, if villain insists OTT we can fold but right here we still have equity and playability.
Just had a bad feeling because of villain bet size.
 
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