2$ NL: Flopped Set, Comments on Line?

c9h13no3

c9h13no3

Is drawing with AK
Joined
Jan 2, 2007
Total posts
8,819
Sorry, no exact hand history, as I'm at work.

================================
8 Handed, Villain is tight (for 2$ NL), and hasn't shown down much, so no real reads. Villain also has *never raised preflop*.

Hero: $2.60
Villain: $1.80

Hero is dealt :9c4::9s4:

Preflop
Folds to villain. Villain limps for $0.02. Hero raises to $0.09. Blinds fold, villain calls.

Potsize = $0.21

Flop: :9h4::2c4::4d4:

Villain Checks, Hero Checks.

Potsize = $0.21

Turn: :9h4::2c4::4d4::kd4:

Villain bets $0.02. Hero raises $0.21 to $0.23. Villain calls $0.21.

Potsize = $0.67

River: :9h4::2c4::4d4::kd4::ad4:

Villain checks. Hero bets $0.45. Villain goes all-in for $1.48. Hero folds.

Pot odds on call: 2.5:1

================================

Should I have looked villain up here on the river? Does villain do this with anything besides a flush/straight? Bet the flop? Is bet/fold the right line for the river?
 
WVHillbilly

WVHillbilly

Legend
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If you're not going to call his all-in on the river, just check behind. It's $1.03 to call a pot of $2.60. I think your chances of winning here are better than that. Do you really think the villain checks the river with the flush or top set??? I call and expect to see 2 pr here more often than not.
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

Is drawing with AK
Joined
Jan 2, 2007
Total posts
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the flush or top set???
Yeah, it happens a lot at these limits. Villains make a flush, and then c/r AI on the river. I honestly see that just as much as villains valuebetting/shoving the riv. They think they have to get tricky.
 
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WVHillbilly

WVHillbilly

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What 2 diamond hand makes sense for the villain here though? He called a pot sized bet on the turn (after his min bet) and then get crazy on the river. If we had bet the flop I'd say we could almost certainly rule out the flush but since we waited it does become more possible although still exteamely unlikely. I think this is A9/A4 way too often to fold a set on the river.
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

Is drawing with AK
Joined
Jan 2, 2007
Total posts
8,819
I'll admit, playing 2$ NL where everyone plays J2 s00ted has made me flush paranoid. But I'd say that any two suited cards is a bigger part of his range than A2, A4 or AK. Sure, villain is making a mistake calling a PSB on the turn. But villain's make this kind of mistake ALL the time at these limits.

What I think is less likely is a player with bottom or 2nd pair calling a pot sized bet on the turn when a king hit. K2/K4 would certainly bet out a little stronger than 2c. Villain is way more likely to chase a flush than an ace in this situation.

You're right about betting the flop though. If I had fired, it would be a much easier call on the river. But is it worth betting such a dry flop?

So yeah, anyways. Villain showed extreme weakness all through the hand, except on the river he made a play that screamed "Ha! I gotcha!" I think villain's range is:

A2, A4, Any two semi connected diamonds.
 
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WVHillbilly

WVHillbilly

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Well if you think 2 random diamonds make up that much of his range you need to check behind on the river and stay out of this spot all together.

BTW I still call. If he has Jd 3d at least you can come here and bitch. :)
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

Is drawing with AK
Joined
Jan 2, 2007
Total posts
8,819
Well if you think 2 random diamonds make up that much of his range you need to check behind on the river and stay out of this spot all together.

BTW I still call. If he has Jd 3d at least you can come here and bitch. :)
No I think his c/r AI range is those few hands. His calling range on the turn is a lot bigger. Hence the bet on the river. Plus, isn't checking behind on the river with a set pure lunacy? Until the CRAI on the riv, he's done nothing to show strength, so I've gotta assume I'm ahead of his range.

My thinking before I bet the river was "Gee, this is an easy bet/fold spot". But after thinking a while I think it's closer to a bet/call than I originally thought. I'd still prolly fold this again tho in the same situation. But getting 2.5:1 is hard to turn down.
 
WVHillbilly

WVHillbilly

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No I think his c/r AI range is those few hands. His calling range on the turn is a lot bigger. Hence the bet on the river. Plus, isn't checking behind on the river with a set pure lunacy? Until the CRAI on the riv, he's done nothing to show strength, so I've gotta assume I'm ahead of his range.

My thinking before I bet the river was "Gee, this is an easy bet/fold spot". But after thinking a while I think it's closer to a bet/call than I originally thought. I'd still prolly fold this again tho in the same situation. But getting 2.5:1 is hard to turn down.

Fair enough.

I doubt I'm still never folding a set at these limits (or any limit that I've played) with an 80bb effective stack.
 
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