[100nl FR] 33 i/p river?

Jagsti

Jagsti

I'm sweet enough!
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Feb 18, 2007
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What is my best line here on the river. Does my 33 have s/d value, what do we put villain on, betting river value/bluff?

Villain is pretty juicy 42/15/1.7 over 47 hands. Me tag as usual.

poker stars, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 9 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

UTG+1: $97
UTG+2: $248.70
MP1: $56.75
Hero (MP2): $104.20
CO: $54.80
BTN: $97.65
SB: $101
BB: $26.75
UTG: $62.20

Pre-Flop: 3
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3
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dealt to Hero (MP2)
2 folds, UTG+2 raises to $3, MP1 folds, Hero calls $3, 4 folds

Flop: ($7.50) 5
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8
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2
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(2 Players)
UTG+2 bets $6, Hero calls $6

Turn: ($19.50) 5
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(2 Players)
UTG+2 checks, Hero bets $13.50, UTG+2 calls $13.50

River: ($46.50) 4
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(2 Players)
UTG+2 checks, Hero?
 
F Paulsson

F Paulsson

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His preflop raising range doesn't contain a lot of deuces, so if he has a pair, we're almost certainly behind. Will he call the turn and river with ace-high, is what you're asking? He might, but unless you've been bluffing a lot with missed draws recently, I'd take the showdown. I don't think you're good a requisite >50% of the time that he calls a bet on the river, mostly because there are more combos of 66-JJ than there are of AK.
 
blankoblanco

blankoblanco

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you're probably beat but just check. trying to push a 42/15 off a pocket pair on this board is not a profitable play. and he's almost never calling with A-high. betting would pretty clearly be a bluff not a value bet, but neither are warranted here
 
F Paulsson

F Paulsson

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Oh yeah, and he's not likely to fold anything that beats what we have. Maybe A-4, but that's really it (and he might even look us up with that).
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

Is drawing with AK
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Flush & straight draw connected... No sense in repping? Or are we not bluffing just based on his stats?
 
blankoblanco

blankoblanco

plays poker on hard mode
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i could bluff here vs. the right player, with the right image. like you said, the draws got there, and it's not impossible for us to have a full house either. but most players who hate folding preflop hate folding postflop too, so i'm not going to try to make this guy fold a pair on a board like this
 
robwhufc

robwhufc

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Flush & straight draw connected... No sense in repping? Or are we not bluffing just based on his stats?

Danger is, you could be representing a hand that your opponent actually has. Hard to think of a hand that is currently beating us but would fold to a bet, so i'd just check and see if my 3's were good.
 
F Paulsson

F Paulsson

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Flush & straight draw connected... No sense in repping? Or are we not bluffing just based on his stats?
Not "just" because of his stats, but it's a large contributing factor. The other factor is really just board texture and value we get from a bluff. Most of his folding range are unimproved overcards, and what we need is for him to fold pocket pairs. Most of the pocket pairs that didn't hit a full house are going to be overpairs to this board. It's just not a very good board for bluffing.
 
Jagsti

Jagsti

I'm sweet enough!
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Well to finish this one off. My thoughts here were my 33 doesnt have much sd value. He seems to be quite weak with the chk/call on the turn. Now I'm thinking I may get him to fold some hands better than mine with a decent bet. As you guys have rightly said, he doesn't fold much on the river.... I opts to bet just over 1/2 pot and he calls and turn's over A9o.
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

Is drawing with AK
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As you guys have rightly said, he doesn't fold much on the river.... I opts to bet just over 1/2 pot and he calls and turn's over A9o.
Obviously value-towning ace high should have been considered as another reason to bet :O
 
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