[100nl] bottom set deep

ChuckTs

ChuckTs

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Villain was a slightly loose 25/17/4 after ~70 hands and I'd been close to those stats as well. I have one note on villain: "weak donk flop, fold to raise", but I'm not sure his weak lead on the flop and turn here mean the same thing.

What's his range at the turn and what's the ideal line?

poker stars, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 9 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

BB: $100
UTG: $143.65
UTG+1: $114.65
UTG+2: $97.50
MP1: $87.20
Hero (MP2): $216.70
CO: $79.50
BTN: $67.80
SB: $116.05

Pre-Flop: [3d] [3c] dealt to Hero (MP2)
UTG raises to $4, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 calls $4, MP1 folds, Hero calls $4, 4 folds

Flop: ($13.50) [6c] [9h] [3h] (3 Players)
UTG bets $6, UTG+2 calls $6, Hero raises to $28, UTG calls $22, UTG+2 folds

Turn: ($75.50) [Qs] (2 Players)
UTG bets $25, Hero ...
 
zachvac

zachvac

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hmm, this is interesting. The strangest part is the calling your raise on the turn and then betting the Q. I mean if not for that I'd say this is likely an overpair, but on a flop with 2 hearts I'd think they'd be a bit scared of the flush draw and if he thinks he's ahead be pushing that flop. Then the Qs comes out and he bets smallish. Is this a blocking bet? I don't think so. You have position on him so he'd have to do this again on the river, which would pot commit him to calling you if you shoved.

But then again I don't see a set doing this. You've shown strength and unless you're on a flat out bluff you're probably calling his flop raise.

The other question is does he have a flush draw? Maybe the Q helped him as well. AQh or something here?


I'm very interested to hear what he had (hope you didn't fold :p), but in this instance I come over the top. We're scared of exactly 3 hands and the only one this looks like it could possibly be is QQ. We have to assume we're ahead here. He could have a flush draw plus a pair (AQh mentioned above). I don't think we're laying down a set against someone with these type of stats. Honestly the only hand I can see that beats us here is QQ with a lot of hands that could be pushing from a player this aggressive, a lot of semi-bluffs. He raised 4x UTG so I'm assuming he didn't flop a set. You're both relatively deep and although we don't want to scare him off, we don't want to give him the free draw to a heart (he probably thinks he has more outs, but he at most has 9 outs if we are indeed ahead). I pop this up to around 80 here and obviously call any shove. If a heart comes that doesn't pair the board I think we almost have to pay it off if he flat calls our raise on the turn. There'd be about 230 in the pot and like 40 behind. Most likely though we get a shove or fold. I'm really interested in seeing what he did that with.
 
NineLions

NineLions

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Maybe weak leads are just his betting style. The hand from the note might have meant he caught middle pair or TP weak kicker and was taking a stab, and in this case weak bet = 2/3 pot bet from anyone else, in which case this might be AA/KK, maybe with a heart. 25/17/4 it's possible that he's UTG raising preflop with 66/99 as well I guess, but I think I'd be RR here as well.
 
Jagsti

Jagsti

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I see this sort of thing sometimes with AA/KK, on the flop were a villain is looking to get tricky with it. The donk bet on turn, well to me it represent's 1 of 2 things, either he's incredibly weak or he's a donk who's incredibly strong. You see if he's donkish, and he has a higher set, then he's not looking to protect his hand, ie 1/3 pot bet on turn. A good TAG would probably be betting with a set here 2/3 rds pot to protect against the fl dr or at least get decent value from a fl dr. So if he's a donk slow playing the higher set then sorry but I'm paying him off. I seriously suspect though that this is a donkish bet by someone who has either an o/pair ( we have him crushed or he has a small piece of the flop, maybe the fl dr ). In any case I don't think slow playing here is advisable, r/r for me.
 
vanquish

vanquish

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this is an overpair more often than something that beats your set; i think you can safely shove this turn
 
ChuckTs

ChuckTs

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I think my concern was more of whether or not we should be calling to induce more action out of JJ/TT or just pushing rather than whether we should be pushing/calling vs folding...
 
vanquish

vanquish

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I think my concern was more of whether or not we should be calling to induce more action out of JJ/TT or just pushing rather than whether we should be pushing/calling vs folding...

calling might put you to a tough decision on river if flush/broadway hits though
 
ChuckTs

ChuckTs

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ya, we're both committed anyways if we look at how much we each have left. I did shove, he showed QQ, I steam even more. Bad day yesterday and it's carrying on today; break time.

Thanks for the responses.
 
skoldpadda

skoldpadda

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Yes, I think I go broke on the turn as well. No shame in losing with a set.
 
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