100nl 6max - BB defense.

[Jagsti]

Villain is a TAG reg, 22/15/4 over 575. His steal is 32%, and he cb's 68%.

1st off I know my 3bet is light, but he had been stealing quite often without much resistence from me. Flop, I''m inclined to lead here, but I don't want him to come over the top, so I elect to chk call. Thoughts on check raise here and my line?

Now the river, thoughts are I'm almost certain I'm ahead. I don't think the K helped him after he checked. So my line on the river, bet/fold or bluff catch, or are we never ahead?

poker stars, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players
Hand History Converter by Stoxpoker

MP: $154.60 (154.6 bb)
CO: $126.45 (126.5 bb)
BTN: $104.45 (104.5 bb)
SB: $100.50 (100.5 bb)
Hero (BB): $129 (129 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is BB with 9

8

2 folds, BTN raises to $3, SB folds, Hero raises to $11, BTN calls $8

Flop: ($22.50) 7

5

9

(2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $18, Hero calls $18

Turn: ($58.50) K

(2 players)
Hero checks, BTN checks

River: ($58.50) 7

(2 players)
Hero?

 

[Chris_TC]

I'd like a c/r all-in on the flop. Takes the difficulty of playing this OOP away.
As played, the river should probably be a check/fold since he won't value bet a weaker hand and very rarely bluff after he checks back the turn. I almost wanna put him precisely on TT, but that's just a hunch
Alternatively, you could try a check-raise all-in if he bets like half pot because he can't really call with anything unless he's seen you do some crazy stuff. Either way, I don't think we should bet (he won't call with weaker), so a check is in order.

 

[BelgoSuisse]

I'd like a c/r all-in on the flop.

...

Alternatively, you could try a check-raise all-in if he bets like half pot

The nice thing about Chris is that whatever the problem, his solution is to CRAI.

I actually like the CRAI on flop, especially if his fold to 3bet stat is not too high which would mean we have significant FE. We do have 9 outs against an overpair that would have the guts to call here.

When villain fails to double barrel the turn, i think he must have some showdown value as he should really be using the scare card to bluff at us if he has air. Whether it's better than ours i have no clue.

I think check/call and bet/fold are both fine. check/fold really looks weak to me.