$100 NLHE Full Ring: If there ever was a time to fold kk pre??

[Dorkus Malorkus]

So, I'd be spending how much time to have 50.5% chance to make a dollar? I don't think so.

What I'm saying is, we run thousands of computer simulations of 220-hand sets, or 136-hand sets, or 111-hand sets. You wouldn't take that bet for $1 per set, and neither would dorkus.

seeing as i like money i'm pretty sure i would for 111 hand sets

e: gordon, what's the probability of 2 flips of a fair coin resulting in 1 or more heads? is that 100% too? if not, how exactly is it different from the aces examples above? i would like to gain a better understanding of how statistics work in gordonworld, thanks!

 

[blankoblanco]

It's 220-1 against getting AA. So there is a 62% probability that he got AA in one of those 136 hands. That constitutes "likely".

it's 1-1 against flipping a coin and landing heads. so there is a 100% probability of flipping a coin and getting a heads in 2 flips? this is the logic you are using. it is completely wrong. the only way your math would work is if it was impossible to get AA more than once in 221 hands. then you would have to get it exactly once every 221 to meet that probability. but since there will be many spans of 221 hands where you get dealt AA two or three or four times, there are more sequences where you'll get dealt zero, to balance for this in the long-term

Yep, that's what probability is. A mathematical way to predict what will most likely happen in reality. It's not the mathematics of certainty. 100% probability does not equal certainty.

oh. my. god. you. are. the dumbest. person. i. have ever. seen.

PROBABILITY MEANS CHANCE. IF THERE IS A 100% CHANCE OF SOMETHING HAPPENING, IT HAS TO HAPPEN. WHAT IS WRONG WITH YOUR BRAIN? have you ever been right about anything you have ever posted? your entire existence has to be an elaborate level, or i weep for humanity

edit: i'll do your simulation bet for $1 per set at 125 hand sets (milking my edge, obv), let's do it. every 125 hand set where the hero is not dealt AA, i get $1, every set where he's dealt at least one AA, you get $1

 

[switch0723]

I folded fwiw

 

[zachvac]

100% probability does not equal certainty.

lol

Anyway as to the hand I think it's a fold and not even close. But with that button I would definitely consider flatting the 3-bet and basically set-mining with all the dead money in there and likely another call or two behind. But yeah if he limp-calls JJ I don't see him 3-betting an EP raiser with QQ even here so I don't really see the point in raising since in the rare cases they did 3-bet queens they'll probably snap-fold to your 4-bet and if they did 3-bet QQ we can possibly get a bit more money out of them postflop.

 

[joosebuck]

i folded too

 

[wsorbust]

Aw crap. I can't read...