This is a discussion on $100 NLHE 6-max: Rate my bluff, fine? Or spew? within the online poker forums, in the Cash Game Hand Analysis section; Only 189 hands so limited reads but this V has been active and has folded a fair amount to my aggression. One hand Hero double
Only 189 hands so limited reads but this V has been active and has folded a fair amount to my aggression. One hand Hero double barrelled A6ss after opening and flopping a 6. V floated light that hand and binked a 9 OTR to scoop a nice pot after Hero checked behind.
Turn:(37 BB, 2 players) 5♠ Hero bets 22 BB, BTN calls 22 BB
Stacks are already getting short. Here I'd normally polarize a bit more if I choose to double barrel but if I size much larger and miss I'll have no fold equity OTR. So I decide to go 2/3 ranging him on some straight draws, weaker Kx and stronger Tx if he continues.
River:(81 BB, 2 players) 3♥ Hero bets 60 BB
Everything misses and I don't think we have enough showdown value. He's got much less than a PSB left. The jam should wipe out his Tx and put his Kx is a world of hurt. If he slow played a set or two pair then we are toast but no one has seen Hero triple barrel less than TP second kicker this session. There was no flush draw on the flop so the only missed draw Hero may have here is QJs (although I'm not 3 betting that OOP V may not know that from my current stats). 3 bet and triple barrel line seems strong. I normally give up and check back here on the river, especially if I sized up turn but since I didn't I thought this may be a good bluff jam. Thoughts?
Thanks for the info. In this hand you face a conservative villain. Although it may not seem like it, this is a deviation from the stats, due to the small sample. In an SB vs BTN duel the villain should have more JX in his defense range. That's why I prefer a bluff with A9s here since we block 9-Ts; K-9s, at the same time we unlocked QJo and J7s that could play passive post flop.
In this case AJ allows a greater margin of fold equity for hands like 8-9o; 8-7s, as these combos are being crushed by better BDS for this texture. I like all the bet sizes , I think I would have bet a little less preflop to let all those medium combinations that I mentioned before filter through and then they can turn into Axs for V range, who decide to leave the river. I think you played it very well because on the turn you have to charge for the new flush draw combos that appear.
I like this bluff just because we have this info on villain.
It feels like he comes to the river with a lot of Tx and as Gustav said he is pretty conservative so I expect him to have a lot of pair + FD on the river that didn't shove the turn. He probably should sometimes call sometimes shove something like 89ss,78ss or A7ss but given the info it just seems he takes them passively to the river.
So I think not having a spade pretty much makes the difference whether I would bluff or not. Bluffing all combos of AJ and AQ is definitely too much so without spade I like it a lot.
Also since we are OOP villain could feel like bluffing now his busted draws like that 89ss that i mentioned and fold us out of our equity.
It's a little bit contradictory to say that he would now bluff 89ss on the river but not shove himself on turn but I still think that is something to take into consideration when bluffing these spots.
I don't mind the 3! or the follow up Cbet(much). Some more info would be helpful. What's his ATS? FTS Flop and Turn? Your 3! % is though the roof and is stats indicate that he's not a total drooler so this probably has not gone unnoticed. You say he called light before but how light? Did he have any equity at all or was it total Pie in the Sky?
This board is too coordinated IMO for a second (OOP) barrel let alone a third. He might float once with a pocket or bottom pair but is he really calling the turn when any higher pair, King or Ten (both solidly in your range) can beat him? Not if he's any good. I think your ranging of him is spot on but this ain't the final table of the WSOP, there's only so much pressure you can put on someone in a LL cash game, especially with a 15% 3! stat. I'm calling with any King, JJ, QQ and maybe any or most Tens.
Other than a strongish Ace you don't have much in your favor but you've got a lot working against you: You're OOP,
The board is not optimal and he called two barrels
You have a high 3! stat and probably high ATS and defend stats to match
He already called you light
3 barrelling there seems good. As the pf 3 bettor, that flop hits your range hard, and you begin telling a story and stick with it.
Did he fold?
Nope, he used almost the whole time bank but he stationed it off with QTdd then chatted for the next 3 hands about how it was such a bad call but he somehow knew Hero was capable of making a move. In the moment I thought pretty much along the same lines as your post but after more study I think we need to have at least one spade to continue on the turn so if I had the Ace or J of spade I would be happy with the line. That turn mistake is amplified on the river.
Ultimately it didn't matter this hand but it does reduce my bluff combos which is good for the times we get called. Along with the turn barrel lesson it also reinforces the notion of "you will only get called by better" being way over utilized as an excuse to under realize max value. I may not have jammed weaker hands like KQs or KJs on the river here and that's probably a leak. I tend to polarize TPTK+ here and value bet or even check back more marginal hands in really big pots where I've already essentially gotten 3 streets of value before the river due to the 3 bet but I think I need to start polarizing a little wider in this spot (but all streets have to be solid).