$100 NLHE 6-max: 300 BB deep vs loose aggro, bad turn card, jam anyway?

[c0rnBr34d]

From the time Hero sat V had 200+ BB and he's been up to 400 BB a few times but he's playing a lot of hands and using selective aggression to overbet the pot. He's been caught bluffing a few times but has it more often than not. V has sucked out on Hero 2 or 3 times mostly making flushes on the river although we have lost the minimum most times. Hero is playing by far the tightest pre flop. Fairly passive post flop thus far. Maybe 100-150 hands in. OTTH:

UTG limps with 18.x BB stack
V min raises to 2 BB in MP and covers the table.
CO calls.
Hero 3B to 10 BB with AhKc from the big blind with a 325 BB effective stack,
UTG 4B jams 18.x BB re-opening the action.
V flats, CO folds.
V is not the trapping type and we are deep and would rather not play OOP so Hero decides V is capped and 5B to 80 BB to try and ISO the dead money and charge V if he wants to call from behind.
V calls more quickly than Hero would like.

Flop (~180 BB): Ac 4s 6c
Hero leads for 60 BB, V quickly calls.
Not sure what Vs range looks like in a 5B pot as this is the only 5B thus far but given The Ac, and Kc are accounted for I'm not worried about a flush coming in and I feel like we flopped the nuts. This bet sets up a trivial turn jam. I just don't want to see a Q or J really.

Turn (~ 300 BB): Ac 4s 6c Jd
We have 185 BB left is there any world where we don't jam here? V can have JJ here but I'd hope he's folding most AJ for this price. He's shown down 52s in raised pots before and is on the biggest stack at the table so maybe he can have some AJ. Anyways, we decide to rip it. Should we be checking this turn? What about a Q turn? Are we ripping every single turn card?

Thoughts on all streets welcome.

 

[Sidetracked]

Given that you have about a 62% pot bet left on the turn, I think folding would be horrible. I would jam, though I wouldn't be fist pumping and jumping up and down.

Please do post results, as I am puzzled with what hand villain could min raise and then call an 80 BB 5 bet.

 

[fundiver199]

Preflop
The preflop action is obviously very non-standard with the 18BB stack open limping and the player next to act then coming in for a min-raise. Your 3-bet is totally standard, and the limper back-jamming is not exactly shocking either, since he has so little left, and he is probably just bad. However when the guy next to act now call this back-jam not closing the action, this is where, the hand starts to get really weird, and I kind of smell a rat. So I am probably not loving your 5-bet, and I certainly dont love, that he call it. I think, this smells very much like AA or KK playing tricky.

Flop
C-betting a small size here seems fine.

Turn
I would definitely not be planning to fold this hand, but at the same time are you really getting called by worse, if you jam from out of position for 300 bigs? Solvers can answer this, if perhaps you tweak the hand slightly and get the fishy limper out of the equation and pretend, its just a heads-up 5-bet pot. And maybe the answer is check your entire range now with intentions to check-call this hand?

 

[liuouhgkres]

Your 3bet sizing could be slightly higher, like 12bb, but 10bb is ok too. In 4bet, 5bet pots there is so much dead money in the middle you just try to get it in with whatever equity you have. You flopped nuts basically and should jam the turn, but I guess checking is fine too, since you have Kc. As long as you get it in, it's fine.

 

[fundiver199]

Kind of repeating myself now, but the issue with this hand is, that ranges in a 5-bet pot, where players are 300BB deep, tend to be very narrow and specific. Maybe he call us with JJ+, AK, and even that is actually kind of wide, but lets just go with it for arguments sake. Lets also say, he continue with all those hands against our flop bet, which is again a little debatable, but since JJ is the hand, that got there on the turn, its sort of a worst case scenario.

In that case we have 61% equity on the turn. 46% of the time we are going to win the hand at showdown, and 32% of the time we are going to chop with another AK. But if we jam the turn, is he really calling us off with KK and QQ, which are now the only hands in his range, we beat? That seems extremely optimistic, and if we are only getting called by hands, that beat us or chop, then whats the point in jamming? Its a WAWB situations, where we are either drawing dead, chopping, or he have two outs against us.

 

[c0rnBr34d]

Kind of repeating myself now, but the issue with this hand is, that ranges in a 5-bet pot, where players are 300BB deep, tend to be very narrow and specific. Maybe he call us with JJ+, AK, and even that is actually kind of wide, but lets just go with it for arguments sake. Lets also say, he continue with all those hands against our flop bet, which is again a little debatable, but since JJ is the hand, that got there on the turn, its sort of a worst case scenario.

In that case we have 61% equity on the turn. 46% of the time we are going to win the hand at showdown, and 32% of the time we are going to chop with another AK. But if we jam the turn, is he really calling us off with KK and QQ, which are now the only hands in his range, we beat? That seems extremely optimistic, and if we are only getting called by hands, that beat us or chop, then whats the point in jamming? Its a WAWB situations, where we are either drawing dead, chopping, or he have two outs against us.

So how does it play out in the various scenarios? Are we only checking to induce bluffs? Are we ever folding? Does it make a difference if the turn was a blank? If the turn goes x/x then do we bet river or x again? I'm struggling a little bit with the logic as it seems we will likely be in the same position again on the river unless he bets turn behind us. He's twice as likely to have one of the 6 combos of AK left than the 3 combos of JJ and there's only one combo of AA left. He's probably not betting JJ or AA either so when he bets it's probably a chop or a bluff and we don't expect to find many bluffs here right? I'm not sure a x/x turn changes anything other than giving a free card to someone drawing extremely thin and given remaining stack sizes we are pretty close to the top of our range so I cant imagine folding either. So if they are going to fold river unimproved with the hands that we beat anyways isn't it better to get the money in now and allow them to make a mistake rather than giving them an additional chance to stack us? I guess I need to get a solver soon

 

[fundiver199]

I dont own a solver either, and I never really get into these kind of 300BB spots, because I am a tournament player now. But I think for me this hand goes off the rails, when you 5-bet. 5-betting AK is a bluff, since you are never getting called by worse. And the fish is already all-in, so even if you get main Villain to call, you still need to beat the fish at showdown, which makes bluffing a lot less valuable.

So I would much rather just call here and then play a 3-way pot out of position with the fish all-in. This is going to be pretty easy, because main Villain cant really bluff you either, since he also need to beat the fish at showdown. So you either flop an A or K, or you can pretty much be done with the hand, unless it goes check-check.

Bloated low SPR pots are just weird, and if we never create them, thats probably not going to be a bad idea overall. But as played looking at your hand reminded me of a recent video, which I shared in another post, but I am going to share it here again. In the video James goes through the solver solution to a 4-bet pot, where Hero is out of position with JJ on A high board.

Very similar to this situation, and while the solver unsurpricingly wants Hero to check-fold on the river, the interesting part is, that the turn is checked a lot from the player up front, and its also checked back a lot by the player in position. And I guess the point is, that the pot is already so bloated, and the situation so much of a WAWB spot, that there is really no value in betting. And of course its totally fine, if he feels the same way and checks back his AK or his QQ-KK twice.

 

[c0rnBr34d]

I dont own a solver either, and I never really get into these kind of 300BB spots, because I am a tournament player now. But I think for me this hand goes off the rails, when you 5-bet. 5-betting AK is a bluff, since you are never getting called by worse. And the fish is already all-in, so even if you get main Villain to call, you still need to beat the fish at showdown, which makes bluffing a lot less valuable.

So I would much rather just call here and then play a 3-way pot out of position with the fish all-in. This is going to be pretty easy, because main Villain cant really bluff you either, since he also need to beat the fish at showdown. So you either flop an A or K, or you can pretty much be done with the hand, unless it goes check-check.

Bloated low SPR pots are just weird, and if we never create them, thats probably not going to be a bad idea overall. But as played looking at your hand reminded me of a recent video, which I shared in another post, but I am going to share it here again. In the video James goes through the solver solution to a 4-bet pot, where Hero is out of position with JJ on A high board.

Very similar to this situation, and while the solver unsurpricingly wants Hero to check-fold on the river, the interesting part is, that the turn is checked a lot from the player up front, and its also checked back a lot by the player in position. And I guess the point is, that the pot is already so bloated, and the situation so much of a WAWB spot, that there is really no value in betting. And of course its totally fine, if he feels the same way and checks back his AK or his QQ-KK twice.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i5O6d6vQqqg

Thanks, I see some similarities here but Hero in the video is not nearly as close to the top of his range as the hand in this post. In the video V could have QQ+, AJs+, at least since he showed up with A9o. So Hero is bluff catching fairly light against what sounds like a strong LAG. When V shows up with A9o here his 4B pre seems like a super value slam dunk and I agree with x, x/f given the run out and remaining stack depth. In this hand it's closer to set over set to me as we only expect 4 combos to have us beat so I'm more willing to go broke against this type of player even though it may not be the most +EV play. Even if we give our V AJs that only adds 2 combos to worry about. But again, I'm not justifying any of this with theory. I just think we have a much easier call and am trying to wrap my head around letting V off the hook with KK-QQ, AQs, etc where they could make a mistake and call at some frequency to balance out the times where we stack off against AA, JJ, and AJs.

Also, it's debatable whether our 5B is a bluff against this guy. If we give him JJ+, AQ+, AJs+ we are still ahead by 6%. If we just give him QQ+, AK then it's a bluff but I think he's continuing wider than this. How much wider is a good question, especially with no HUD. At the time I thought V was wide enough to 5B for value and protection / equity denial since we are OOP. I don't mind showing down against the short stack with AK.

 

[fundiver199]

In the video the solver does also bet turn around 35% of the time, and watching it again it seems like AK is mostly betting. So maybe its a betsizing issue, where you should actually go even smaller on the flop and then bet very small again on the turn to put his QQ-KK in a tough spot. We are not worried about getting drawn out on, and the SPR is extremely low, so small bets might be very effective here. Of course if he can have AQ, its much easier to get paid.

 

[gustav197poker]

If hero thinks that by jamming OTT he recovers the lost value of V by allowing him to call more times with hands like: QQ and JJ (you block AA and KK) then possibly that means that the hero can deviate from his adjusted image and now he could bet bluffing with a random hand like: 78s or 99 who 5-bet preflop. Otherwise I do not agree to use your blockers in a MWB. Since you will be flipping more times than desired when called, which means that you will surrender more frequently when MP 6-bet preflop.
If V is too loose you want him to have the Kc to increase his fold equity range on the turn. That is, in this spot when you jam OTT you end up isolating yourself with all the hands that defeat you. You are playing 100NL so you must not absolutely state that this V cannot cheat.
In fact when MP min raises and then calls 4-bet without problems, this should be like a red signal that that range could have some disguised hand and then to balance you should not block the bluffs, when supposedly you have a range image very tight for the table.
Greetings.

 

[c0rnBr34d]

Given that you have about a 62% pot bet left on the turn, I think folding would be horrible. I would jam, though I wouldn't be fist pumping and jumping up and down.

Please do post results, as I am puzzled with what hand villain could min raise and then call an 80 BB 5 bet.

Results as requested.

Spoiler

V tanks for about 12 seconds and calls and the river bricks out, I have to admit I was relieved at the tank lol. Thanks everyone for the feedback. In hindsight I DO like a smaller 1/4 pot flop bet and then another small turn bet against Vs whole range. I've been playing mostly live and have not had many 5B deep stacked pots but that's not a great excuse. I got lucky this time.

V shows AQo
UTG shows KJo
Hero scoops a monster

So as suspected against a V this wide and loose I don't think the 5B is a bluff but I'm still not sure exactly how wide V would continue.

 

[Sidetracked]

Results as requested.

Spoiler

V tanks for about 12 seconds and calls and the river bricks out, I have to admit I was relieved at the tank lol. Thanks everyone for the feedback. In hindsight I DO like a smaller 1/4 pot flop bet and then another small turn bet against Vs whole range. I've been playing mostly live and have not had many 5B deep stacked pots but that's not a great excuse. I got lucky this time.

V shows AQo
UTG shows KJo
Hero scoops a monster

So as suspected against a V this wide and loose I don't think the 5B is a bluff but I'm still not sure exactly how wide V would continue.

Nice hand, Mr CornBread!

It's always nice (and a bit of a relief) when a huge hand goes your way.