$10 NLHEFull Ring: Made straight on river but faced resistance earlier.

[No Brainer]

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 14/11/2.3

Check/calling this river? Or are we up against a set here more often than not so we can bet for value?

I think we could be up agaist A5, 56 here that are scared of the flush. I don't think there are many made flushes on the flop that he wouldn't want to get it in on the flop with.


Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $0.10(BB) Replayer
SB ($8.74)
Hero ($24.39)
UTG ($9.78)
UTG+1 ($9.75)
UTG+2 ($11)
MP1 ($8.80)
CO ($29)
BTN ($10.01)

Dealt to Hero 5♥ J♣

fold, UTG+1 calls $0.10, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero checks

FLOP ($0.25) 2♣ 3♣ 4♣

Hero bets $0.20, UTG+1 raises to $0.50, Hero raises to $1.50, UTG+1 calls $1

TURN ($3.25) 2♣ 3♣ 4♣ 9♥

Hero bets $2, UTG+1 calls $2

RIVER ($7.25) 2♣ 3♣ 4♣ 9♥ A♥

Hero ??

 

[fx20736]

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 14/11/2.3

Check/calling this river? Or are we up against a set here more often than not so we can bet for value?

I think we could be up agaist A5, 56 here that are scared of the flush. I don't think there are many made flushes on the flop that he wouldn't want to get it in on the flop with.


Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $0.10(BB) Replayer
SB ($8.74)
Hero ($24.39)
UTG ($9.78)
UTG+1 ($9.75)
UTG+2 ($11)
MP1 ($8.80)
CO ($29)
BTN ($10.01)

Dealt to Hero 5♥ J♣

fold, UTG+1 calls $0.10, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero checks

FLOP ($0.25) 2♣ 3♣ 4♣

Hero bets $0.20, UTG+1 raises to $0.50, Hero raises to $1.50, UTG+1 calls $1

TURN ($3.25) 2♣ 3♣ 4♣ 9♥

Hero bets $2, UTG+1 calls $2

RIVER ($7.25) 2♣ 3♣ 4♣ 9♥ A♥

Hero ??

With 14/11 stats what kind of hand would someone limp from early position? Most likely a small pocket pair, less likely but still possible a weak suited Ace or maybe even a suited connector. What I don't understand is why you tried to build such a strong pot here? Since you checked from the BB your hand is well disguised so why not check and see what your opponent does before committing chips to the pot, especially since you are not drawing to the nut flush or even the nut straight. A 6c5c has you destroyed as does AcXc. Considering he called your turn bet instead of re-raising you I'm guessing it's less likely that he has 22 33 44 as if he fears that you are drawing to a Club flush he would probably re-raise you all in rather than just call so my guess is that he flopped a nut flush or straight flush and you are drawing dead.

 

[No Brainer]

As you say we are most likely up against small pockets. Less likely suited connectors and a very slim chance of AXs but I think we can count that out.

On this flop

Board: 2c 3c 4c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 42.020% 40.79% 01.23% 21001 631.00 { 88-22, JTs, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, 65s }
Hand 1: 57.980% 56.75% 01.23% 29217 631.00 { Jc5h }

Then we face resistance so we can narrow that range even more

Board: 2c 3c 4c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 52.401% 51.00% 01.40% 18682 512.50 { 88-22, JcTc, Tc9c, 9c8c, 8c7c, 7c6c, 65s }
Hand 1: 47.599% 46.20% 01.40% 16923 512.50 { Jc5h }



So even against a range of small pairs (made sets and overpairs) and made flushes from suited connectors we are small underdogs to win the hand by the river.

As I said in the first post, I think if he has a made flush he would be raising again on the flop so I think we could discount those. Against sets, overpairs and 5,6 (not clubs) we are favorites.

Board: 2c 3c 4c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 48.438% 46.83% 01.61% 14835 510.00 { 88-22, 6d5d, 6h5h, 6s5s }
Hand 1: 51.563% 49.95% 01.61% 15825 510.00 { Jc5h }



Thats why I needed the helpwith this one, finding out a good range to put him on to decide whether or not we are favorites. Please feel free to change the ranges around to suit what you think he could have here.