$10 NLHE 6-max: Trips facing aggression V2

[Beanfacekilla]

I don't really know much of anything, but I think villain has a boat here. Either 3-3, 9-9, or J-9.

You online players are so analytical.

Vpip, aggression, etc aside, I think OP is beat FOR SURE in this spot.

That is all.

 

[hutz]

I think OP is beat FOR SURE in this spot.

If true, then folding on the turn is the only option.

 

[youregoodmate]

Huh?

Logically this makes no sense. Is he really raising TJ or worse UTG? Are you being honest with yourself there? Because if he is, then raising the turn looks even better.

What do you put him on check/min-raising that turn card? Be specific.

Raising the turn is terrible. Villains range is probably KJ+, 99+ but we cant rule out weaker jacks considering how fishy the villain is.

 

[Beanfacekilla]

Raising the turn is terrible. Villains range is probably KJ+, 99+ but we cant rule out weaker jacks considering how fishy the villain is.

Yes very true. A true donk may think his J-7 is golden here.

However, I am eagerly anticipating the results of the hand. I am really hoping to be right in my initial conclusion. I need this little itty bitty one.

 

[youregoodmate]

Yes very true. A true donk may think his J-7 is golden here.

However, I am eagerly anticipating the results of the hand. I am really hoping to be right in my initial conclusion. I need this little itty bitty one.

The results are really unimportant here, just how the hand is played.

 

[Beanfacekilla]

The results are really unimportant here, just how the hand is played.

Fair enough, but I still want to know. I understand the point of the thread is to analyze the play.

 

[hutz]

There is only 1 combo of TJs left and 3 combos of TJo (I think it's a stretch for a 30/15 player to be raising TJo UTG, but maybe he's getting frisky). So that's 4 combos out of 15 total you think he might have here. Almost a quarter of the time you have him beat. Maybe he has QJ, too and you guys are chopping it up. That's 3 more combos possible but you'll just be splitting up the blinds and antes. We'll not worry about those.

In this scenario 4/15 times you call this min-raise you have the best of it. But, it might really only be 1/12. If it's 1/12, then is it plus EV to call two streets?

EV = (1/12)(8.67) + (1/12)(7.60) + (11/12)(-9.60)
EV = (.083)(8.67) + (.083)(7.60) + (.917)(-9.60)
EV = 0.72 + 0.63 - 8.80
EV = -7.45

Not even close.

What if he has enough hands that he'll be bet the river on when you call for you to win the hand 50% of the time?

EV = (.50)(8.67) + (.50)(7.60) + (.50)(-9.60)
EV = 4.34 + 3.80 - 4.8
EV = 3.34

Absolutely.

The question again is on the turn. What range do you put him on? And is that range realistic to the situation? Is he willing to call a turn reraise to 9.60 with his KK QQ type hands? And then call off a small value bet on the river?

 

[Sori]

Huh?

Logically this makes no sense. Is he really raising TJ or worse UTG? Are you being honest with yourself there? Because if he is, then raising the turn looks even better.

What do you put him on check/min-raising that turn card? Be specific.

This is exactly my thinking. So, he clearly is a fish but he is only raising 15%, and he is UTG. Even is a player isn't completely positionally aware, people naturally will be more tight UTG. I don't see him having weaker jacks in his range besides possibly JTs.

Also, I don't think we should assume he is going to fold with an overpair. In fact, I think most FISH will absolutely call a shove with KK/AA here because they just can't "waste" such a great starting hand. (I know I had this issue and still sometimes do)

 

[youregoodmate]

This is exactly my thinking. So, he clearly is a fish but he is only raising 15%, and he is UTG. Even is a player isn't completely positionally aware, people naturally will be more tight UTG. I don't see him having weaker jacks in his range besides possibly JTs.

Also, I don't think we should assume he is going to fold with an overpair. In fact, I think most FISH will absolutely call a shove with KK/AA here because they just can't "waste" such a great starting hand. (I know I had this issue and still sometimes do)

This isnt true for fish at all. They see their hand and think this looks good.

If we shove the turn an overpair will probably fold. Fish are not that blind they can see trips are available and the ridic shove size would put them off.

I cant believe we're talking about raising a re-raise as strong as that. Feel free to talk about folding the turn/river but I am NEVER getting this is on the turn.

 

[hutz]

youregoodmate - Would you have bet the river if villain had checked?

 

[Sori]

I'm going to start off by saying I don't pretend to be a better player than virtually anybody on this forum.

However, I disagree here. I think anybody with any sense of logic are going to be somewhat tighter UTG than opening on the BTN. (in fact, I believe blackrain states this in his book that this is typically the case, it just isn't as a distinguished difference as it should be). Secondly, maybe some fish would fold these overpairs, but there will most definitely be fish that cannot fold AA/KK. regardless if the board is paired and they are facing serious aggression. There are simply so many players that will literally NEVER fold AA.

I think is read dependent, but I have notes on multiple villians that called down with AA on a 4 to a flush board, 4 to a straight, etc. There are simply many fish that can't let go of aces, because "they have been waiting for pocket rockets for an hour". Maybe this isnt the majority, I don't have enough experience to pretend to know more than you, but I have encountered it on numerous occasions.

Hope this didn't come off rude or hostile, that is not my intention. (Having said ALL that, I still don't think I would raise the turn, but I am not going to fold this river- and depending on how fishy he seemed, I would shove the river if I thought he couldn't let go of his overpairs)

 

[youregoodmate]

youregoodmate - Would you have bet the river if villain had checked?

Yes and folded to a raise. However, I hardly ever expect villain to check the river. Getting this in is not an option

 

[youregoodmate]

I'm going to start off by saying I don't pretend to be a better player than virtually anybody on this forum.

However, I disagree here. I think anybody with any sense of logic are going to be somewhat tighter UTG than opening on the BTN. (in fact, I believe blackrain states this in his book that this is typically the case, it just isn't as a distinguished difference as it should be). Secondly, maybe some fish would fold these overpairs, but there will most definitely be fish that cannot fold AA/KK. regardless if the board is paired and they are facing serious aggression. There are simply so many players that will literally NEVER fold AA.

I think is read dependent, but I have notes on multiple villians that called down with AA on a 4 to a flush board, 4 to a straight, etc. There are simply many fish that can't let go of aces, because "they have been waiting for pocket rockets for an hour". Maybe this isnt the majority, I don't have enough experience to pretend to know more than you, but I have encountered it on numerous occasions.

Hope this didn't come off rude or hostile, that is not my intention. (Having said ALL that, I still don't think I would raise the turn, but I am not going to fold this river- and depending on how fishy he seemed, I would shove the river if I thought he couldn't let go of his overpairs)

Exactly! I dont expect every fish to fold overpairs but some/most will if we ship the turn. Shoving the river is horrible.

 

[hutz]

Raising the turn is terrible. Villains range is probably KJ+, 99+ but we cant rule out weaker jacks considering how fishy the villain is.

Actually, though shipping the turn may be terrible (because, as you assert, he only calls when we're beat), raising the turn may be better than just calling a 3/4 psb on the river.

Let's look at it.

His likely range according to you is 99+, AJs, AJ, KJs, KJ, QJs, QJ, TJs, TJ.

Hands that have us crushed: 99, AJs, AJ, KJs, KJ -- 11 combos, we have 14.26% equity
Hands that we crush: QQ+, TT, TJs, TJ -- 25 combos, we have 94.27% equity
Hands where we split: QJs, QJ -- 3 combos, split so we can ignore.

For a total of 39 combos of hands that you think is likely in his turn check/min-raise and river 3/4 pot lead range. You have already stated that you would call any reasonable river bet, but it seems you are in stack protection mode. Since you did call the turn raise and a 3/4 psb on the river, I'll assume you would do this 100% of time against this villain.

If this is the case, why not put that amount or slightly less as raise on the turn?

Make it 7.50 or 8.00. If he shoves, and you know for sure that he only does this with the hands that have you crushed plus the TJ hands, then you have to fold, but you saved yourself a couple of bucks. If he just calls and then checks the river he'll only have about a 3/4 pot size stack gives you a lot of room for value bet options into his overpair hands. Thus giving you the opportunity to make a couple of extra bucks or stack him even.

I think that if you're going to be a passive nit in a spot like this, then you might as well fold preflop. This is the best type of flop to actually win his 250bb stack. He's much more likely to go further with his overpairs than on a 89T board.

 

[youregoodmate]

Actually, though shipping the turn may be terrible (because, as you assert, he only calls when we're beat), raising the turn may be better than just calling a 3/4 psb on the river.

I think that if you're going to be a passive nit in a spot like this, then you might as well fold preflop. This is the best type of flop to actually win his 250bb stack. He's much more likely to go further with his overpairs than on a 89T board.

Unfortunately we dont know how much he will bet or if he will bet the river. As I said before I reckon overpairs fold to a turn raise so I really dont like it. Seems like you're desperate to get this in bad here.

I would rather spend the extra couple of dollars and keep in overpairs that I may be able to get value from on the river and keep my 3 outs where I would stack him.

As for passive nit... what a ridiculous statement, very constructive.

 

[hutz]

Seems like you're desperate to get this in bad here.

You play a hand like this against a fish to stack him. You get a dream flop against his range, yet you are not trying to figure how to stack him when you have the best of it. If villain has an over pair and is scared enough of a turn raise that he folds on this board, he's never betting the river when you call his min raise. So he's only betting the river when he has a J. There are not enough Js in his preflop raising range to make a river call profitable for you. Control the price and raise the turn. If he folds, fine. If he ships, you obviously fold. If he calls and ships the river, it's the same, you fold. But, if he calls your turn raise - the price you set - and checks the river, well, then you have to decide if you want to bet.

I would.

This is all a moot point, anyway. It's obvious he had 99 and you were crushed.

 

[youregoodmate]

You play a hand like this against a fish to stack him. You get a dream flop against his range, yet you are not trying to figure how to stack him when you have the best of it. If villain has an over pair and is scared enough of a turn raise that he folds on this board, he's never betting the river when you call his min raise. So he's only betting the river when he has a J. There are not enough Js in his preflop raising range to make a river call profitable for you. Control the price and raise the turn. If he folds, fine. If he ships, you obviously fold. If he calls and ships the river, it's the same, you fold. But, if he calls your turn raise - the price you set - and checks the river, well, then you have to decide if you want to bet.

I would.

This is all a moot point, anyway. It's obvious he had 99 and you were crushed.

Well he didnt...

Okay first off, we dont know if we have the best of it so getting it in would be ridic.

'If villain has an over pair and is scared enough of a turn raise that he folds on this board, he's never betting the river when you call his min raise'

Ermm.. well we are in position so we can make a bet....

We get more value from overpairs by calling the turn and either calling or betting the river than by raising the turn and making villain fold (which he probably will). Just have a think about what you're saying, by raising the turn we fold out everything realistic in his range that we beat.

I cba to discuss this anymore, these are my points if you dont agree then w/e. I posted this hand mainly for pre-flop analysis not to be told Im a passive nit.

 

[Deco]

To those suggesting a turn or river shove, what proportion of fish do you think:

A) min check raise their overpairs here
B) call a turn 3bet?