$10 NLHE 6-max: Cbet with AK, TPTK on the turn

[duggs]

jokes that you said I give bad advice in another thread when you play like this haha

I may not be the best but you calling people bad when you play worse is lol

lol he is right, different guy

 

[youregoodmate]

You should count these hands as hitting the flop because your whole plan for the hand revolves around your equity, how easy you can realise this equity, how often you have fold equity, how the hand will play out on turn cards etc... Not a lot of good stuff is going for you here when he hits this flop 75% or in your terms - hits it like 55% but has gutshots that are never folding to a flop bet another 20%, so you're gonna bet flop a ton and then what cards are you continuing on? what cards are you giving up on? How often are you going to get bluffed and have to x/f at some point?

I really dont think he hits anyway near 75%, but hey ho I just dont think x/fing the flop is the way to go.

 

[acky100]

My numbers dont come from what i think in the top of my head, which seems to be your evidence for arguing that this flop isn't as bad as you think...

edit: even though i come across as a ****, i dont mean too, i have just ran the numbers for this spot and i think my ranges for his calling a 3bet are pretty good.

 

[youregoodmate]

My numbers dont come from what i think in the top of my head, which seems to be your evidence for arguing that this flop isn't as bad as you think...

edit: even though i come across as a ****, i dont mean too, i have just ran the numbers for this spot and i think my ranges for his calling a 3bet are pretty good.

Yeah dw nothing personal taken. I never actually said that I didnt think the flop was bad. I think he has a lot of equity on it but only 99-1010 and 10x (obv QJ is big as well) has hit the board from my estimation of his range. Thats why regardless of problems we may encounter on the turn, I think a c-bet is best because at 10nl there are a lot of tight players that will just fold their overcards and gutshots. Especially considering his stats up til now seem quite tight/solid.

 

[acky100]

Well thats the thing, equity is pretty much as good as hands that have hit because its directly related to how often he will win the pot, and his whole range has a lot of equity here, i mean, the worse hand in his range is probably AQo which is still two overcards and will be floating a lot. I think a cbet is fine if you think he is really weak tight dont get me wrong, if he is "solid" though, or reasonably competent i think the last thing you want to do is cbet because you just wont be getting folds the 40% you need or whatever

 

[ChuckTs]

c/f flop, not even close in my book. As played bet turn/non-7/8/T rivers for value. Too many 88/99/89s/Tx/KJ/KQ/random K9s/K8s hands in his range. He doesn't ever fold turned TP, doesn't fold Tx that often, and sometimes looks you up with the pair+gutters.

 

[youregoodmate]

I would inlcude hands like AJ and KQ in his range as well, maybe even KJ. Ive only switched to 6 max recently but after 20k+ hands, I've been quite surprised by the 3 bet calling ranges. As you can tell by the result of the hand. Like JC said, so many 10nl players just play fit/fold flops and thats why I think c-betting is profitable, plus we have a 1 in 8 chance of making what will probably be the best hand on the turn if we get called, which reduces us needing folds to about 34% if my maths is correct.

 

[acky100]

I would inlcude hands like AJ and KQ in his range as well, maybe even KJ. Ive only switched to 6 max recently but after 20k+ hands, I've been quite surprised by the 3 bet calling ranges. As you can tell by the result of the hand. Like JC said, so many 10nl players just play fit/fold flops and thats why I think c-betting is profitable, plus we have a 1 in 8 chance of making what will probably be the best hand on the turn if we get called, which reduces us needing folds to about 34% if my maths is correct.

I included all of these hands in my analysis.

 

[acky100]

c/f flop, not even close in my book. As played bet turn/non-7/8/T rivers for value. Too many 88/99/89s/Tx/KJ/KQ/random K9s/K8s hands in his range. He doesn't ever fold turned TP, doesn't fold Tx that often, and sometimes looks you up with the pair+gutters.

+1

J/Q is also obviously 2 more terrible cards for us to barrel.

 

[youregoodmate]

Well thats the thing, equity is pretty much as good as hands that have hit because its directly related to how often he will win the pot, and his whole range has a lot of equity here, i mean, the worse hand in his range is probably AQo which is still two overcards and will be floating a lot. I think a cbet is fine if you think he is really weak tight dont get me wrong, if he is "solid" though, or reasonably competent i think the last thing you want to do is cbet because you just wont be getting folds the 40% you need or whatever

Im just getting confused now

 

[acky100]

Im saying one of the worst hands equity wise in his range is something like AQo. That still is getting floated by a ton of regs because its Ace high with two overs sometimes and that is one of the least connected hands he has with this flop.

 

[youregoodmate]

Right, you swayed me a bit there, but surely c/f is just so weak.

 

[acky100]

not range vs range - we are going to have better hands to bluff and value bet in our range, its not like x/f'ing the worst parts of our range on these bad flops makes us weak, just clever if anything. A lot of bad players justify bad play by not wanting to be "weak" and are usually super unbalanced because of it i.e. the guys who c-bet 100% in 3bet pots, this kind of thing will get them killed at higher stakes.

 

[JCgrind]

so i play bad and am a huge station (much like most 10NL regs that will flat your 3bs). hands that id definitely call a 3b with and call your flop bet with include;

ATs/KTs/QJ/KJ/KQ/67s-JTs/97s-T8s/77/88/99/TT/JJ, and if youre fit or fold in 3b pots then id probably float you to at least the turn with AJ/AQ highs etc.

This puts you in a terrible spot on quite literally any turn card other than an A or K, you have to c/f and give up- and a lot of the time turn cards like these will further improve villains hand so that hes still ahead.

so yeah. i dont think c/f flop, although it definitely has its merits. i expect villain to be weaktight like acky suggested so im barreling the flop before giving up. when i turn the K though, ill fire out small but be very cautious of and heat i get on it, since an A or a K hits out percieved range much harder than it hits villain, so if hes still trying to get money in when one peels, its generally a pretty big hand

 

[OMGITSOVER9K]

am I just hating on random people now?

Bluenowhere powers initiated.

but yeah, bigger pre, smaller on flop, bet turn since c/r oversells your hand.

 

[youregoodmate]

Thanks for your help guys, especially Acky. I appreciate you putting up with me, this has been very helpful.