€10 NLHE 6-max: $10 NLHE 6-max: Should I call here?

[johnlocke]

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD

NL Holdem 0,10(BB)
CO ($14,84) [VPIP: 21,2% | PFR: 13,5% | AGG: 25% | hands: 109]
BTN ($11,38) [VPIP: 28,1% | PFR: 20,3% | AGG: 33% | Hands: 457]
SB ($10,32) [VPIP: 21,1% | PFR: 17,9% | AGG: 27,3% | Hands: 194]
BB ($9,69) [VPIP: 21% | PFR: 17,6% | AGG: 37,8% | Hands: 123]
HERO ($20,13) [VPIP: 22,6% | PFR: 18% | AGG: 34,2% | Flop Agg: 39,5% | Turn Agg: 33,7% | River Agg: 22,4% | 3-Bet: 6,4% | 4-Bet: 12% | Hands: 3205]
HJ ($8,12) [VPIP: 25,1% | PFR: 19,8% | AGG: 30% | Flop Agg: 23,7% | Turn Agg: 36,6% | River Agg: 33,3% | 3-Bet: 8,7% | 4-Bet: 3,8% | Cold Call: 13,2% | Hands: 729]

Dealt to Hero: A♦ Q♣

HERO Raises To $0,23, HJ Calls $0,23, CO Folds, BTN Folds, SB Folds, BB Folds

Hero SPR on Flop: [12,93 effective]
Flop ($0,61): J♣ A♣ Q♦
HERO Bets $0,40 (Rem. Stack: $19,50), HJ Calls $0,40 (Rem. Stack: $7,49)

Turn ($1,41): J♣ A♣ Q♦ 3♥
HERO Bets $1,03 (Rem. Stack: $18,47), HJ Calls $1,03 (Rem. Stack: $6,46)

River ($3,47): J♣ A♣ Q♦ 3♥ 6♣
HERO Checks, HJ Bets $2,14 (Rem. Stack: $4,32), HERO Calls $2,14 (Rem. Stack: $16,33)

Spoiler

HJ shows: 4♣ 5♣

HJ wins: $7,37

Hello,
Do you think i should fold in this spot? At the time I only decided to call because i had the Qc which blocked many of his possible flushes. Had I a different Q i may have folded.

Thank you.

 

[300HPGOD]

I make that call. There are Ax combos (some 2 pair that we beat) that think they are betting for value here, there are also bluffs here that do this. Plus, as you mentioned we do have a club so it is a little less likely that villain has two of them. I hate it when the club comes down on the river but as played I am not folding top two pair there. I think we beat enough of what they could have to justify the call.

I will say though (not sure if it changes anything or not) that you need to be raising more than 2.3x pre flop, especially with these types of hands. Lucky that we did not have to go multi way with it.

 

[Clean]

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD

NL Holdem 0,10(BB)
CO ($14,84) [VPIP: 21,2% | PFR: 13,5% | AGG: 25% | Hands: 109]
BTN ($11,38) [VPIP: 28,1% | PFR: 20,3% | AGG: 33% | Hands: 457]
SB ($10,32) [VPIP: 21,1% | PFR: 17,9% | AGG: 27,3% | Hands: 194]
BB ($9,69) [VPIP: 21% | PFR: 17,6% | AGG: 37,8% | Hands: 123]
HERO ($20,13) [VPIP: 22,6% | PFR: 18% | AGG: 34,2% | Flop Agg: 39,5% | Turn Agg: 33,7% | River Agg: 22,4% | 3-Bet: 6,4% | 4-Bet: 12% | Hands: 3205]
HJ ($8,12) [VPIP: 25,1% | PFR: 19,8% | AGG: 30% | Flop Agg: 23,7% | Turn Agg: 36,6% | River Agg: 33,3% | 3-Bet: 8,7% | 4-Bet: 3,8% | Cold Call: 13,2% | Hands: 729]

Dealt to Hero: A♦ Q♣

HERO Raises To $0,23, HJ Calls $0,23, CO Folds, BTN Folds, SB Folds, BB Folds

Hero SPR on Flop: [12,93 effective]
Flop ($0,61): J♣ A♣ Q♦
HERO Bets $0,40 (Rem. Stack: $19,50), HJ Calls $0,40 (Rem. Stack: $7,49)

Turn ($1,41): J♣ A♣ Q♦ 3♥
HERO Bets $1,03 (Rem. Stack: $18,47), HJ Calls $1,03 (Rem. Stack: $6,46)

River ($3,47): J♣ A♣ Q♦ 3♥ 6♣
HERO Checks, HJ Bets $2,14 (Rem. Stack: $4,32), HERO Calls $2,14 (Rem. Stack: $16,33)

Spoiler

HJ shows: 4♣ 5♣

HJ wins: $7,37

Hello,
Do you think i should fold in this spot? At the time I only decided to call because i had the Qc which blocked many of his possible flushes. Had I a different Q i may have folded.

Thank you.

I can’t handle this, the money is too much, bets $0.40, r u kidding me?

 

[johnlocke]

I make that call. There are Ax combos (some 2 pair that we beat) that think they are betting for value here, there are also bluffs here that do this. Plus, as you mentioned we do have a club so it is a little less likely that villain has two of them. I hate it when the club comes down on the river but as played I am not folding top two pair there. I think we beat enough of what they could have to justify the call.

I will say though (not sure if it changes anything or not) that you need to be raising more than 2.3x pre flop, especially with these types of hands. Lucky that we did not have to go multi way with it.

Alright, thank you for taking the time to give your opinion. I will take all that into consideration

 

[MidnightSleepless]

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD

NL Holdem 0,10(BB)
CO ($14,84) [VPIP: 21,2% | PFR: 13,5% | AGG: 25% | Hands: 109]
BTN ($11,38) [VPIP: 28,1% | PFR: 20,3% | AGG: 33% | Hands: 457]
SB ($10,32) [VPIP: 21,1% | PFR: 17,9% | AGG: 27,3% | Hands: 194]
BB ($9,69) [VPIP: 21% | PFR: 17,6% | AGG: 37,8% | Hands: 123]
HERO ($20,13) [VPIP: 22,6% | PFR: 18% | AGG: 34,2% | Flop Agg: 39,5% | Turn Agg: 33,7% | River Agg: 22,4% | 3-Bet: 6,4% | 4-Bet: 12% | Hands: 3205]
HJ ($8,12) [VPIP: 25,1% | PFR: 19,8% | AGG: 30% | Flop Agg: 23,7% | Turn Agg: 36,6% | River Agg: 33,3% | 3-Bet: 8,7% | 4-Bet: 3,8% | Cold Call: 13,2% | Hands: 729]

Dealt to Hero: A♦ Q♣

HERO Raises To $0,23, HJ Calls $0,23, CO Folds, BTN Folds, SB Folds, BB Folds

Hero SPR on Flop: [12,93 effective]
Flop ($0,61): J♣ A♣ Q♦
HERO Bets $0,40 (Rem. Stack: $19,50), HJ Calls $0,40 (Rem. Stack: $7,49)

Turn ($1,41): J♣ A♣ Q♦ 3♥
HERO Bets $1,03 (Rem. Stack: $18,47), HJ Calls $1,03 (Rem. Stack: $6,46)

River ($3,47): J♣ A♣ Q♦ 3♥ 6♣
HERO Checks, HJ Bets $2,14 (Rem. Stack: $4,32), HERO Calls $2,14 (Rem. Stack: $16,33)

Spoiler

HJ shows: 4♣ 5♣

HJ wins: $7,37

Hello,
Do you think i should fold in this spot? At the time I only decided to call because i had the Qc which blocked many of his possible flushes. Had I a different Q i may have folded.

Thank you.

This is of course your classic ...sigh... call spot. Should it be?

Let's do some combo analysis; Which hands would you open from LJ and take this line with (bet flop, bet turn, check river)
For me it could be:
AA-TT (Maybe we go for 3 streets with AA, QQ, JJ not sure - for this we will imagine we don't)
AKs-A9s (A9s might be a push but we'll go with it for now)
AKo-ATo (you might not have ATo in your LJ open range but again lets go with it)
KQs,KJs,KTs,K9s (again not sure if K9s is in your LJ open range)
KQo, KJo,
QJo (again not sure if in opening range)
JTs, T9s, 98s

this is 109 combos
I would imagine the rest of your range would have either checked flop or turn.

So with that in mind when villain bets 50% pot on the river we only have to be good 25% of the time to justify the call.
What hands does villain arrive at river with after calling from the HJ, calling flop and turn?

(I'm going to assume that villain 3 bets AA, KK, QQ and AK preflop as he is 3 betting nearly 9% - he is probably wider than this but we don't know his 3 bet HJ vs LJ so we will go with this)

JJ-TT
AQo, KQo (this might be stretch villain does't look that fishy at 25% VPIP)
AQs-A2s (again might be stretch)
KQs-KTs
QJs, QTs
JTs
Tc9c-45c (normnally I wouldn't put 4c5c in someones LJ cold calling range but it obviously is for him so we will add it in)

This gives him 82 combos
we beat:
TT, AJ-A2s (if we chop this down to ATs only things change a bit but not much), KQ(not clubs), KJs, KTs QJs QTs(not clubs), JTs

We loose to:
KcTc, Kc9c, QQ, JJ, QcTc, JcTc, Tc9c, 9c8c, 8c7c, 7c6c, 6c5c, 5c4c

This is only 16 hands
can we find about 8 natural bluffs from villain?
easily in fact most of villains range at this point could easily be turned into a bluff as it blocks or partially blocks the straight.

So I would say it's a call almost all the time and make a not of villain is willing to go 2 streets (with decent sized bets) to hit his flush and next time raise higher with most of your range (especially the 2 pair/sets/straights)

Anyway just my thoughts.

let me know if you agree or disagree.

 

[jaworek1405]

Hello, I think that we have to call on the river this bet. I agree with 300HPGOD, we have top two pair, if you check on the river opponents can think that you afraid of something on the river and he can bluffs you sometimes, in this situation you can afraid the flush. I have one read on players when they check on the river in situation like this that they haven't a flush, for me it means a weakness and if I have something like two pair I bet for value and I try represent a flush. So I think you have no choice in this situation, you have to risk with top two pair and pay this bet, because sometimes you will have better two pair than your opponent. I agree with hero that in this situation is worth, because we have one club, so we take one out to flush. GL

 

[johnlocke]

This is of course your classic ...sigh... call spot. Should it be?

Let's do some combo analysis; Which hands would you open from LJ and take this line with (bet flop, bet turn, check river)
For me it could be:
AA-TT (Maybe we go for 3 streets with AA, QQ, JJ not sure - for this we will imagine we don't)
AKs-A9s (A9s might be a push but we'll go with it for now)
AKo-ATo (you might not have ATo in your LJ open range but again lets go with it)
KQs,KJs,KTs,K9s (again not sure if K9s is in your LJ open range)
KQo, KJo,
QJo (again not sure if in opening range)
JTs, T9s, 98s

this is 109 combos
I would imagine the rest of your range would have either checked flop or turn.

So with that in mind when villain bets 50% pot on the river we only have to be good 25% of the time to justify the call.
What hands does villain arrive at river with after calling from the HJ, calling flop and turn?

(I'm going to assume that villain 3 bets AA, KK, QQ and AK preflop as he is 3 betting nearly 9% - he is probably wider than this but we don't know his 3 bet HJ vs LJ so we will go with this)

JJ-TT
AQo, KQo (this might be stretch villain does't look that fishy at 25% VPIP)
AQs-A2s (again might be stretch)
KQs-KTs
QJs, QTs
JTs
Tc9c-45c (normnally I wouldn't put 4c5c in someones LJ cold calling range but it obviously is for him so we will add it in)

This gives him 82 combos
we beat:
TT, AJ-A2s (if we chop this down to ATs only things change a bit but not much), KQ(not clubs), KJs, KTs QJs QTs(not clubs), JTs

We loose to:
KcTc, Kc9c, QQ, JJ, QcTc, JcTc, Tc9c, 9c8c, 8c7c, 7c6c, 6c5c, 5c4c

This is only 16 hands
can we find about 8 natural bluffs from villain?
easily in fact most of villains range at this point could easily be turned into a bluff as it blocks or partially blocks the straight.

So I would say it's a call almost all the time and make a not of villain is willing to go 2 streets (with decent sized bets) to hit his flush and next time raise higher with most of your range (especially the 2 pair/sets/straights)

Anyway just my thoughts.

let me know if you agree or disagree.

I see where you are coming from, he could be bluffing hands like KQo or JTs on some frequency just to get me off an ace or something. And yes, i am not going to have a straight as often. I agree with you, i did not think about that but it makes a lot of sense. Also I don´t think this player will have sets too often in this spot, he would probably raise them on the flop or turn which makes the call even better. Thank you for the analysis, i definitely learned something from it.

 

[fundiver199]

Its never fun, when we are out of position, and some draw complete on the river. But I am going to go with the majority here and say, that your hand is just to good to fold. You kind of said it yourself already. With Qc in your hand and also with Ac and Jc on the board, there are really not that many natural flush combos for him to have. There are also no sets other than maybe JJ.

I am a little surpriced, he showed up with a low suited connector, given that he called you as the second player on the table to act. This is a very loose call and not something, I would expect from a player with solid looking preflop stats. But maybe you were his favourite opponent, or he just felt bored. It just goes to show, that even with HUD-data we never have perfect information.

On a side note this is not a table, I would be on in the first place, without having already clicked "sit out next blind". You are playing with 5 other regs here, and with typical 5% rake, this is almost certainly not profitable. Table selection is key to success in cash games.

 

[lcartaxo]

Due to the size of the villain's bet on the river (60% pot), it consists more of valuable hands, which are trying to extract some value.

I don't see the villain betting here with TPWK (AT, A9), or even QJ (two pair).

The villain also has no sets here, as we would already know on the flop or turn.

From the way you got here, calling on previous streets, I don't see missed draws.

You commented that, as you have Qd, there is less chance of the villain having a flush.

But do you realize that the opposite is also true? Because you are holding the Qc, he has less hands to bluff. For he could bluff with a Qc. As you did, you eliminated some hands that could bluff like QcT, KQc. Have you ever thought about it?


But I would also pay, in this situation. Because not paying here, a half pot bet, with 2 pairs in hand, would be easily exploited by opponents.

=====

I confess that I was surprised to see the villain with a baby flush here. Because calling a UTG bet with that hand, it means being very loose.