$10 NL HE 6-max: You Are A Poker Genius If You Can Guess What He Had

blueskies

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I have AhKs on HJ. I open to 30c. Everyone folds except BB, who's sitting there with $5.05.

Based on what I have seen from BB, he is crazy. I've seen him call and bet and shove with stuff that makes no sense. This explains my river call.

5c4hAd flop.

He checks I bet 40c into 65c pot (rake adjusted). He calls.

Turn is Jc. He checks I bet $1.20 into $1.47 pot. He calls.

River is 6c. He instashoves $3.14 into $3.84 pot. Against most guys I would fold, but since I've seen him go wild with mediocre stuff or even nothing numerous times before, I called.

Guess what he had.

Jd6d
 
Poker Orifice

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32o 'or' maybe J4o (I've noticed a lot more people have been playing J4o ever since that goofy woman played that hand)

When villain shoves river from OOP and by the way you've described their play, I'd expect them to defend with atc. So why not have something that beats AK here in this spot?
 
Poker Orifice

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That was going to be my 4th guess (after J5o)
 
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fundiver199

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I am not sure, I find it all that interesting to try to guess, what the opponent had. As described it could probably be a lot of different hands. If this is basically a bad beat story ("look how poorly he played, and how unlucky I am"), then it belongs in "bad beats and vents" rather than here. But I think, the hand as well as the situation is worth discussing, so here we go:

Preflop
Obviously a standard open, and if 3BB is your standard size, then you should also use it with AK.

Flop and turn
Here I think, the discussion is mostly about bet sizing. You went rather big, which sets it up for a river jam. And maybe thats ok against a maniac, but in general 50BB is a bit much to put in with just one pair. So this is at least something to consider.

River
Obviously not great that the BDFD came in, especially since he can have AX and 4X of it, so there are definitely hands, that naturally call on the flop, which now got there. You also have one of the worst AK combos, since you dont block any flushes. Having Ac in particular would be very usefull. But with that being said I guess, the decision to stack off was made on the flop and turn? And then you probably have to stick with that plan, even though the river card and action was less than ideal.

Results
Its obviously kind of crazy, that he called a big flop bet with basically just J high, and then backdoored into two pair. But at the same time, if J6 is part of his range, then he can have more value, which you lose to. And does he have enough bluffs to compensate for that? Its not easy to find natural bluffs on this board, since he would almost have to take a hand like 76 and turn it into a bluff, when he miss his straight but river a pair. You write:
Against most guys I would fold, but since I've seen him go wild with mediocre stuff or even nothing numerous times before, I called.
But what exactly does it mean, that you have seen him "go wild"? Was it by making bad calls on the flop, like he did here? Or by going all-in preflop with mediocre hands? Or was it by doing, what he did here, to put out a big river bet as a bluff in a situation, where his opponent had shown a lot of strength? If you had seen him make several big river bluffs, then you probably have to close your eyes and make the call.

But there is a risk of letting emotions cloud your judgement, so that you call, because you want him to be bluffing rather than because, you have an actual reason to think, he is bluffing. And the problem is, that then calling and seeing, how he sucked out on you, will only put you on even more tilt. So if a player like this annoy you, if it often best to sit out and close down the table, even though they should be some of the most profitable opponents.
 
DanielNeg

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I couldn’t exactly guess his card but I can say either he had flush or two pair in the end..
Otherwise he wouldn’t have shoved on the river..
 
puzzlefish

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If you over fold here then you become exploitable to anyone that just jams or massively overbets on the river to get you to fold. If you're calling this bet because of a long history of this particular kind of play from this particular player, then it's easier to justify sometimes calling this. But if you're just generally painting the player as "crazy" because of aggressive play, that's a great way to unconsciously get into overcall tilt.
 
blueskies

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It's possible that I have just happened to see him at his worst moments, but based on my tracking with him over 200+ hands (not including hands played on mobile) he is like 80+/30+. and he's down quite a bit, like $50.+(I am going from memory now so I might be off by a bit, but not by much.) He's one of the guys I've tagged as a favorite to play against. He usually doesn't last long on a table cuz he will bust out quickly more often than not.

I know it's hard to believe me without seeing him play cuz it's just my word and you may feel I am exaggerating, but I assure you I am not. I have seen him shove so many times and I only wish I had a hand. I have doubled up through him a handful of times but I wish it was more. Of course, this time he got me.

Again, the numbers don't include mobile hands where I actually play more than on computer, so they may not sound very bad. I've seen him lose way more than $50.
 
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I couldn’t exactly guess his card but I can say either he had flush or two pair in the end..
Otherwise he wouldn’t have shoved on the river..
I agree, usually the lead river push from such players is almost always for value, especially since they like to call any suited cards, so there will be a lot of backdoor flushes and dopers.
 
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fundiver199

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based on my tracking with him over 200+ hands (not including hands played on mobile) he is like 80+/30+.
My point was, that just because someone play a lot of hands, does not mean, they make big river bluffs in situations, where their opponent has shown a lot of strenght. Being loose preflop and bluffing the river are very different things, and one does not automatically follow from the other.
and he's down quite a bit, like $50.+(I am going from memory now so I might be off by a bit, but not by much.)
Playing 80% of hands is clearly not a profitable strategy, but you cant judge peoples results over 200 hands.
He's one of the guys I've tagged as a favorite to play against.
Sure. These are the kind of players, we want at our table. You got massive value from him on the flop and turn. So the only thing, you need to consider, is, if it was nessesary to pay him on the river, when he had sucked out on you and told you with his actions, that this had happened. Not saying you should have folded, but you need to think more about this situation, and what information you actually have, because on the river you were strictly bluffcatching.
I have seen him shove so many times and I only wish I had a hand.
To me this statement indicate, that you made an emotional AKA tilted call. This player had been annoying, because he had shoved often, and this had forced you to fold, because you did not have a hand to call with. Now though you finally had something, so this was your time to "get him". However to get actual information we need to see showdowns and not just actions.

So what did we learn from this showdown? We learned, that he might have a tendency to overplay medium strong hands. Even though he made two pair on the river, his hand was essentially only one pip better than yours, and there were many ways for him to be beat including you having a flush or even just a better two pair (aces up). And yet he donk showed into you, which is very aggressive. But he was not bluffing. So if you were to take a note on him based on this hand it would be "tend to overplay" rather than "bluff a lot".
 
Aballinamion

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I have AhKs on HJ. I open to 30c. Everyone folds except BB, who's sitting there with $5.05.

Based on what I have seen from BB, he is crazy. I've seen him call and bet and shove with stuff that makes no sense. This explains my river call.

5c4hAd flop.

He checks I bet 40c into 65c pot (rake adjusted). He calls.

Turn is Jc. He checks I bet $1.20 into $1.47 pot. He calls.

River is 6c. He instashoves $3.14 into $3.84 pot. Against most guys I would fold, but since I've seen him go wild with mediocre stuff or even nothing numerous times before, I called.
We must call here because villain can have absolutely nothing. But I wouldn’t be surprised if villain had JJ, KK or AA.
The point is not to guess what villain had, but to reflect upon the possible combinations and combos that it might had. If we assign villain just one possible hand out of several combos, we are going to make a mistake.
In this case villain could have 32, 54, 65, 87, J5, J4, J6, KQ, KJ, and a couple of AK, AQ, AJ, Ax, and even absurd hands like JJ or AA.
Or even 72o, it doesn’t matter what exactly villain had, what matters is that we make the best move based on what we know of the situation and opponent profile.
I quoted your hand because if I had chosen to reply it would show the spoiler, and I didn’t want to see it.
Best of luck;
 
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gustav197poker

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I believe you, it is very likely that V is a maniac. However that doesn't mean that V can't think. You have to put yourself in V's shoes. If someone starts floating with junk on the flop, they may have some plan for the next streets or they just think your range is too wide.
I've studied your playing style a bit (I don't consider myself a genius, just a thinking player) and you tend to make bets above 50% of the pot, which I assume you use the same size for values as for bluffs.
So in this spot the villain blocks your ability to bluff on the river.
The texture doesn't help you because here a maniac can turn a hand like 56 into a bluff (something similar happened here), a maniac could also have 78, without forgetting that on the river the third club appeared on the board.
There are definitely enough hands that beat you and you don't need to be a genius to make an exploitative fold in this texture.
Greetings.
 
smerald

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I think I lean toward fold here with clubs and straight getting there even with knowing the player. I don’t mind the call though. Especially if you think he’d do the same thing with AT or worse. I definitely didn't have him on J6 lol. I’d stay at that table as long as he’s there!!
 
blueskies

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Unfortunately he busted out shortly after this hand. The hand itself didnt tilt me but that he busted out within two rotations did piss me off and i left the table at that point cuz the remaining players were much tougher players.
 
Edu1

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before see the spoiler I - I put villain in a random 2 pairs
 
ScooperNova

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I was going to say 6c7c, which was giving them way too much credit lol. Welcome to drunken microstakes bingo!
 
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