$10 NL HE 6-max: TPTK Facing River Overbet

[blueskies]

Game

Hold'em

Game Format

No Limit

Stakes

$.05/$.10

Table Format

6-max (6 seats)

VP$IP

26

PFR

20

AF

3

Currency

$

Villain Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 26/20/3
Wondering how you would have played this differently. (This is on BOL and I cannot make its HH fit this forum's format)

Opponent is a LAG. He's a losing player based on my tracking data, but he's also not diarrhea loose and is a reg.

His stack is over $25. My stack is a bit over $11.

I have AdKs on BTN.

UTG limps. HJ raises to 40c. I raised to $1.80. UTG folds and HJ calls.

JsKc7d flop.

HJ checks. I bet $1.82 into $3.64 (rake-adjusted) pot. HJ calls.

Turn's Jh.

HJ checks. I decided to check as IF I am ahead here, I am well ahead and am not afraid of too many cards, save a Q or T which would help his KQ or AQ (if he has them). I didn't want to bet and possibly get raised, which puts me in a rough spot. I plan to just call off a river bet if he bets. And the river bricks and he checks, I plan to bet half pot.

And the river is Td. My first reaction is dislike as AQ flashes in my mind and a few secs later he shoves his remaining ~$22. I would be calling off my remaining $7.50against the ~$15 pot.

My gut says AQ or TT as I have caught this guy bluffing before, but he wasn't shoving like this. Really can't see him doing this as a bluff. I can see him floating the flop with AQ or TT. And of course if he has AJ he already caught his out on the turn.

Kinda wondering if I should have bet larger on the flop or fired a second barrel on the turn?

 

[liuouhgkres]

Should have bet smaller if you range bet. I think your sizing is fine if you don't range bet. Turn you can shove, you can check, both are fine. If villain is lag and can bluff then river is an easy call.

 

[Station_Master]

It's about a pot size bet in the end rather than overbet. About $7.20 in pot with effective stacks of $7.50, so you need about 33% equity to call.

when villain calls your (too big) 3bet and then large flop bet I would put him on a pretty strong range so difficult to find bluffs. The bluffs would generally need to be pairs with showdown value like QQ, but most villains would check their showdown value. I would fold here as I dont think you will have the 33% equity needed.

 

[Ace of Spad3s]

Few things I noticed about the hand:

- Rather large 3-bet sizing. He called and that means you can put him on a strong range.
- quite large flop bet for TPTK. 33% of the pot would do just fine.
- I kind of get the check on the turn, but you said villain is known to bluff. Checking here can be interpreted as weakness and on that board would open up for bluffs which put you in a tough position. A small double barrel might restrain him here and if he check-raises or shoves the river you can still get out.

Overall, I'd say this is a fold with TPTK vs a strong range and potential straight, trips, FH or even quads.

 

[Sopt]

Preflop - quite a large 3-bet, but I don't really see much wrong with it. As others say, your opponent calling there should automatically put him on a strong range however, which we must take into account as the hand progresses.
Flop - normal cbet, exactly the same as I would have played.
Turn - here I don't like us just checking behind. If anything it doesn't show strength. It rather shows weakness and us being afraid of the second J that dropped here. I believe us betting here is more profitable play in the long run. At worst case we get rerised and we can always just fold if we don't feel like being ahead. Honestly I don't see our opponent reraising in that position tho, even if he hit a jack and we get to see the river anyways and play from there. More time than not I'd see opponent folding on the second bet, unless he actually has something.
River - we are not calling his all in here with a board like that and how hand went. As said at the start, he isn't calling our 3-bet with complete trash, so he most likely has us beat in this position. We might have induced a bluff with out play on turn though, but I still don't see us calling.

 

[georgi krastev]

Kinda wondering if I should have bet larger on the flop or fired a second barrel on the turn?

If you bet the turn, you should call the river also (imo)... value(?) The bet sizing is ok OTF (imo). Also the re-raise pre looks fine...

 

[300HPGOD]

Pre: I think you can make this bet smaller as its a cold 3 with a limper involved so it has a little 4 bet feeling to it from opponents so I think it can smaller knowing the limper likely is not coming in unless they like to limp jam with big hands. You are in position with AK so we are not worried if HJ calls us and we are making this raise as a value raise instead of a bluff raise therefore I think a raise to 3.5x is better than 4.5x.

Flop: Villain dependent on sizing and it sounds like you know this player so if you think they will float a lot or call off with 99 type hands then I like your sizing. If they dont have that tendency and most likely would fold anything other than 77, Jx or Kx then your sizing needs to be smaller. You would know the answer to those questions better than me so I will leave that for you to decide but this should not be a half pot bet everytime against every opponent as I am pretty sure you already know. I have played against you and trust your judgement so half pot was probably fine there.

Turn: Comes down to again to villain and do we think we could get 3 streets from a hand worse than TPTK? With going with the defualt answer of no since I really dont know we have to check somewhere and depending on villains flop floats/call % Jx was one of our target hands that now we lose to. We already know Kx is less lilely since we can account for 2 of them so I think checking here makes sense given our value target range has shrunk considerably and this might not have been a triple barrel situation to begin with.

River: I am not sure this is a slam dunk fold as others have said. Are we ever checking the turn if we have Jx? I wouldnt think so even though the board is badugi we would still try to get value so villain likely knows this as they have played against us just as much as we have played against them. Their bets on the river would never be half pot or less as if they are bluffing then they know they are behind and need folds and if they are ahead then with our 3 bet pre and bet on flop they know we likely have a little something and could call. I think the only bet sizing you would ever face on this river with this board would be what you faced. Its clearly polarized and you could be ahead and could be behind. AQ and 1010 fit here. I dont think QJ and J10 type hands call that large of a 3 bet pre but you again know them better than me. KJ is limited due to the board and us having a K so that to me leaves AJ as the only Jx that makes sense. Does 1010 call that flop with two overs after facing a large 3 bet pre? I doubt it so I diminish the chances of 1010 as well. This to me seems like AQ, AJ or a bluff. Without really knowing the villain I couldnt guess how much they are bluffing but that is the million dollar or $15 dollar question in this case. My gut tells me this is close to a call but probably more likely than not a better fold over time than a call.

 

[eetenor]

Villain Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 26/20/3
Wondering how you would have played this differently. (This is on BOL and I cannot make its HH fit this forum's format)

Opponent is a LAG. He's a losing player based on my tracking data, but he's also not diarrhea loose and is a reg.

His stack is over $25. My stack is a bit over $11.

I have AdKs on BTN.

UTG limps. HJ raises to 40c. I raised to $1.80. UTG folds and HJ calls.

JsKc7d flop.

HJ checks. I bet $1.82 into $3.64 (rake-adjusted) pot. HJ calls.

Turn's Jh.

HJ checks. I decided to check as IF I am ahead here, I am well ahead and am not afraid of too many cards, save a Q or T which would help his KQ or AQ (if he has them). I didn't want to bet and possibly get raised, which puts me in a rough spot. I plan to just call off a river bet if he bets. And the river bricks and he checks, I plan to bet half pot.

And the river is Td. My first reaction is dislike as AQ flashes in my mind and a few secs later he shoves his remaining ~$22. I would be calling off my remaining $7.50against the ~$15 pot.

My gut says AQ or TT as I have caught this guy bluffing before, but he wasn't shoving like this. Really can't see him doing this as a bluff. I can see him floating the flop with AQ or TT. And of course if he has AJ he already caught his out on the turn.

Kinda wondering if I should have bet larger on the flop or fired a second barrel on the turn?

We want to trust our reads---So if you cannot give this V the correct bluff freq then you have to fold
If we cannot give the V the correct river bluff freq then we can check back turn more often when the J pairs especially if the V calls TT on the river when a blank hits- the reason is we do not face difficult river decisions vs low freq bluffing players

Yes we can bet larger on this flop vs this specific V type- If they are inelastic in their ranges and do not balance bluffs correctly- Not to get folds though from AQ we want to get max value from AQ on flop as again we can make easy folds vs an under bluffing V

The one factor we want to think about where this V might bluff in this spot is that they have played with you as 300hp mentioned, so we always want to think about them deviating from the norm. Reread 300hp's thoughts as we do want to incorporate those concepts into our cash games.

I would suggest a mental game exercise for you as well-- Review your hands where you had these type of decisions and instead of thinking about the nuts first and then trying to think of bluffs reverse the order---When the T hits think "will they bluff here and why?" first because we already know they will shove the nuts- the power of suggestion is a real thing and if we preload our brains to think nuts first it is very difficult to then come off of that thought and make the call.

 

[Aballinamion]

Villain Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 26/20/3
Wondering how you would have played this differently. (This is on BOL and I cannot make its HH fit this forum's format)

Opponent is a LAG. He's a losing player based on my tracking data, but he's also not diarrhea loose and is a reg.

His stack is over $25. My stack is a bit over $11.

I have AdKs on BTN.

UTG limps. HJ raises to 40c. I raised to $1.80. UTG folds and HJ calls.

JsKc7d flop.

HJ checks. I bet $1.82 into $3.64 (rake-adjusted) pot. HJ calls.

Turn's Jh.

HJ checks. I decided to check as IF I am ahead here, I am well ahead and am not afraid of too many cards, save a Q or T which would help his KQ or AQ (if he has them). I didn't want to bet and possibly get raised, which puts me in a rough spot. I plan to just call off a river bet if he bets. And the river bricks and he checks, I plan to bet half pot.

And the river is Td. My first reaction is dislike as AQ flashes in my mind and a few secs later he shoves his remaining ~$22. I would be calling off my remaining $7.50against the ~$15 pot.

My gut says AQ or TT as I have caught this guy bluffing before, but he wasn't shoving like this. Really can't see him doing this as a bluff. I can see him floating the flop with AQ or TT. And of course if he has AJ he already caught his out on the turn.

Kinda wondering if I should have bet larger on the flop or fired a second barrel on the turn?

OTT if we do thing we are ahead we must c-bet more often than checking. Our hand is good but it is also fragile and we want to extract of villain as soon as possible with its dominated Kings and other hands that could continue calling such as draws. If we bet and we get raised we continue because as you stated, our villain is a loose and many times these type of players will raise us in spots where they should've folded or with any dominated king.
In my opinion your c-bet flop was fine the point is that you should've made a second barrel because now it completed a draw on the river and villain might be bluffing and we are in a hard spot. I'm afraid that versus this opponent profile I'm calling this river shove more often than folding, for villain is loose and because we own bluff catchers/blockers.
I don't like slow playing fragile hands such as TPTK, Two Pair or even Sets when there's no better hand possible on the board. I only like to slow play when I hit a Straight on a clean and dry board, when I hit a flush in a non-double paired board and of course, when I own Full-Houses or Quads, otherwise the overall strategy is to fire as much as possible.

 

[fundiver199]

Preflop
Normally a good 3-bet sizing is 3X in position. Maybe we can add a little extra here due to the limper, but I would not go larger than $1.30. I think, when you go this large, you are giving yourself a bad price on your bluffs, and you also lose more, when you fold to a 4-bet. Which with this sizing almost has to be a jam.

Flop
C-betting is fine, but half pot is a bit large, especially given the very large preflop sizing.

Turn
I do agree with checking back. The pot is already very large, and you cant really bet again without committing yourself to the pot. And I just dont think, enough worse hands can call, if you jam. Maybe you get a crying call with KQ, but other than that all better hands will call, and all worse hands fold.

River
Normally when we pot control a hand like TPTK, our intention is to call a river bet from the opponent to snap off any bluffs. But here I just dont think, he has enough bluffs in his range, going back to your sizing preflop and on the flop. He would almost have to take a made hand like QTs/ATs (which rivered a pair) or QQ and turn it into a bluff. And most players just dont do that. I also dont think, you beat any value, since his value here is at minimum trips and more likely a straight or a full house. You are also not getting the best price facing an essentially full pot sized bet. So as played I fold.