$10 NL HE 6-max: NL10 - questionable bluff?

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pokernomad

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Pacific Poker - $0.10 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 102.2 BB
SB: 191.9 BB
BB: 259.7 BB
UTG: 75.8 BB
MP: 95.4 BB
Hero (CO): 163.6 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has J:heart: K:heart:

fold, fold, Hero raises to 2.5 BB, fold, SB raises to 10 BB, fold, Hero calls 7.5 BB

Easy call with villain's 3Bet being too small, my hand being strong and in position

Flop: (21 BB, 2 players) 5:heart: 5:diamond: 8:heart:
SB bets 6.9 BB, Hero calls 6.9 BB

Expected cbet and small - easy call with 2 overs and a flush draw - They should have missed this flop, only A5 or A8 have hit the flop that he may have 3bet with, possible overpass, I don't know if villain is capable of 3Bet bluffing, and I block a lot of possible strong combos.

Turn: (34.8 BB, 2 players) Q:diamond:
SB checks, Hero bets 22.9 BB, SB calls 22.9 BB

Check is weird to me. In the moment, it felt like villain is giving up or he has a 8?, so I made a big bet with a lot of equity, can rep a Q and to protect with 2 flush draws on the turn
Call is worrying but I am leaning towards a flush draw with A10s+, KJs, QJs - I am less worried about a random an off suit Q as I block a lot of those combos
Although he could have JT/T9, I don't think he 3bets these - maybe I am not giving them enough credit?

River: (80.6 BB, 2 players) 3:spade:
SB checks, Hero bets 66.1 BB,

All the flush draws miss, although I have 2 cards which I want villain to have, they block KQ,QJ making it less likely he has a Q - I can rep a queen with a bet (along with my turn bet) that beats JJ, TT, A8 (or a random 8) and a bet puts pressure on the missed flushes or possible straights

It's a big bet, could possibly go larger here?

Let me know your thoughts on this play

SB fold
Hero wins 76.6 BB
I suspect
 
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Sopt

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So..

Pre flop bet was ok and so was to call opponents 3 bet. I wouldn't agree his 3-bet is too small however, I'd say it's nicely sized.

Flop gave you pretty nice cards, opponent most likely hits nothing on that board so if he doesn't have a pair in his hand already he's most likely just playing with 2 over cards like you. His c-bet is expected, while I'd say it's a bit low. Call here is ok.

Turn gave us a Q and no flush, it did potentially open up diamond version of it. His check could be anything there. If he did just normal c-bet on flop and missed all by now he could play like that. If he tried to squeeze a bit of a value on flop and tried to play tricky with a set of 8s he could also opt out for this move, as you seemed willing to call all his bets. Your bet on the turn is fine, you represent a strong hand here, his call here however would make me very nervous however. Especially since your bet was quite big.

Everything missed on the river and our opponent checks again. As said I would be nervous as hell here. Is he trapping us or just gave up on hand after not catching anything (something in the direction of what you suggested - chasing of diamond flush). Since you opted to bet on turn, you most likely decided you are going to the end with the bluff here and I'd give it 50-50 here. Personally I wouldn't play the hand this way, but I'm glad it worked out for you. Just try to not step on a mine with such plays as you could have lost 90BB there on a bluff, while you earned 30BB.
 
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Nice hand, I think it's well played, even though in theory you are probably not meant to bet the missed flush draw on the river. Villains line looks alot like JJ, TT or a flush draw that will fold to a river bet.

As Sopt says 3bet pre is not small, 4x is pretty normal size
 
Aballinamion

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Easy call with villain's 3Bet being too small, my hand being strong and in position
Villain’s 3-bet is normal, not too small. Villain goes to 4x the sizing of your preflop raise.
SB checks, Hero bets 22.9 BB, SB calls 22.9 BB
I think betting for bluff here is fine but dangerous: we do not have too much equity for river and villain could call with a bunch of Qx. When we call a 3-bet preflop we don’t own the best hands possible for this scenario.
The point is that at low stakes players make a lot of exploitative callings, this is why I think it’s dangerous to bluff in spots like this. If we at least had a combo draw for the flush OTR, but we are assuming that “villain thinks” or “villain has X, Y”, when, in fact, they are not thinking too much.
It's a big bet, could possibly go larger here?
I think your sizing is fine in spite of the results. If villain shoved, we had to call with our two overcards. It continue to be a dangerous bluff when villain could simply call with AJ, AK, hard to believe villain folded AQ here.
 
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pokernomad

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I wouldn't agree his 3-bet is too small however, I'd say it's nicely sized.
I agree - I don't know why but I thought is was 3x, not 4x - probably thinking of another hand
If he tried to squeeze a bit of a value on flop and tried to play tricky with a set of 8s he could also opt out for this move, as you seemed willing to call all his bets
I discounted 88 as a 3bet hand as I don't think the population 3bets overpays from SB enough at this level - happy to hear if someone thinks differently
Just try to not step on a mine with such plays as you could have lost 90BB there on a bluff, while you earned 30BB.
This makes sense, but are you saying you should not bluff for this large a pot? At the time, I felt this was the only way I can win the hand as I lose to and Ax he 3bet with
 
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pokernomad

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The point is that at low stakes players make a lot of exploitative callings,
My feeling is that the population bet and the river when they have made hands and don't bluff enough - are you saying at NL10 that the population, or some players in the population, actually will call with medium hands because they believe players bluff too often?
 
Aballinamion

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My feeling is that the population bet and the river when they have made hands and don't bluff enough - are you saying at NL10 that the population, or some players in the population, actually will call with medium hands because they believe players bluff too often?
Nope, they will call because the general population aren’t thinking about ranges, sizings, player profile, etc.
Sure that at NLHE 10 are decent players but most of the population aren’t thinking enough.
 
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pokernomad

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Nope, they will call because the general population aren’t thinking about ranges, sizings, player profile, etc.
Sure that at NLHE 10 are decent players but most of the population aren’t thinking enough.
Thanks for the follow up - always super helpful
 
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This makes sense, but are you saying you should not bluff for this large a pot? At the time, I felt this was the only way I can win the hand as I lose to and Ax he 3bet with
Nah I'm not saying your play was strictly bad or anything, it's more of a question if it's worth to risk whole stack to get back 1/3, especially after a "questionable" play of opponent on turn. Especially since you're playing NLHE10, which is still a low limit with a lot of people who don't think much about the game.
My thought was more in the direction of, you need to win 3 of such pots for one backfired bluffs, that will happen, by playing that way, in the long run. It's just my perspective and observation, I do play a bit more of a defensive/sure poker or whatever you might want to call it, and rarely bluff against people who I got no idea how they play and can't presume their game. :)
 
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pokernomad

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you need to win 3 of such pots for one backfired bluffs

it's more of a question if it's worth to risk whole stack to get back 1/3,
I think these are really good points - I need to look into the maths of this kind of play to better understand if it's worth the risk
 
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I think these are really good points - I need to look into the maths of this kind of play to better understand if it's worth the risk
Honestly I'm not sure they are , this is quite nitty advice and will hurt your game long term. Also it's not correct. The river bluff needs to work something like 40-45% of the time to be profitable, you risk 66bb to win 80bb. So if you lose the 66, well you just need to win 132bb ( if you put half in) so it's more like 1.7 such 80bb pots not 3.
 
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fundiver199

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Seems fine to me, at least if Villain is a reg. His hand looks a lot of 99-JJ, and this is mostly, what you are trying to get him to fold. As well as some hands like AQ or AT of diamonds. If you are ever going to float and run a big bluff like this, KJ high definitely does not have showdown value in a 3-bet pot, so the hand was a fine candidate for bluffing.
 
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