$10 NL HE 6-max: KTo Fold vs Value-Bet?

[AcesUTGFold]

Game

Hold'em

Game Format

No Limit

Stakes

$.05/$.10

Table Format

6-max (6 seats)

Currency

$

$0.10 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players

BTN: $11.35 (113.5 bb)
SB: $16.04 (160.4 bb)
Hero (BB): $10.00 (100 bb)
UTG: $22.51 (225.1 bb)
MP: $11.26 (112.6 bb)
CO: $14.20 (142 bb)

SB posts $0.05, Hero posts BB $0.10

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.15) Hero has K

T

4 folds, SB raises to $0.30, Hero calls $0.20

Flop: ($0.60, 2 players) Q

7

K

SB checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($0.60, 2 players) 5

SB bets $0.42, Hero calls $0.42

River: ($1.44, 2 players) 3

SB bets $1.00, Hero calls $1.00

hands:711
Stats:23/18

Flop: Check Behind for Pot Control with KTo or do we have a value bet here?

Turn: Think Standard Call KTo is too weak for a raise.

River: Kind of looks like a value bet, but of course he can also have some bluff combos, some flush draw combos he had on the turn.

 

[Aballinamion]

$0.10 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players

BTN: $11.35 (113.5 bb)
SB: $16.04 (160.4 bb)
Hero (BB): $10.00 (100 bb)
UTG: $22.51 (225.1 bb)
MP: $11.26 (112.6 bb)
CO: $14.20 (142 bb)

SB posts $0.05, Hero posts BB $0.10

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.15) Hero has K

T

4 folds, SB raises to $0.30, Hero calls $0.20

Flop: ($0.60, 2 players) Q

7

K

SB checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($0.60, 2 players) 5

SB bets $0.42, Hero calls $0.42

River: ($1.44, 2 players) 3

SB bets $1.00, Hero calls $1.00

Hands:711
Stats:23/18

Flop: Check Behind for Pot Control with KTo or do we have a value bet here?

Turn: Think Standard Call KTo is too weak for a raise.

River: Kind of looks like a value bet, but of course he can also have some bluff combos, some flush draw combos he had on the turn.

Preflop: do you believe villain is raising some kind of decent range or do you believe villain is trying to steal using a chunk of bad hands? Let’s consider these ideas into our following analysis.
Preflop villain raises and we must know if it is opening a weak or a strong range. If SB steals too often, a 3-bet is mandatory. If SB opens a decent range we can mix between 3-betting and calling for KT is a strong hand with removal and playability postflop: plus we have position.
The flop comes good in both cases: if villain is opening trash we bet to extract now of his dominated range and if villain is opening a decent range all the same, we bet to charge draws and losing hands. I don’t see the point of checking here, we would check this flop if we do had KQ, K7, Q7, or maybe a flopped set, but our hand is fragile here, so we should be betting more than checking.
On the turn SB bets and it has lots of bluffs that could be doing it, so raising here isn’t a bad idea. KT isn’t a weak hand in this particular spot. If villain was raising from CO, we could say KT is weak, but considering stats is much likely that villain has a stealing range of SB x BB.
On the river there aren’t much bluffs on SB’s range, but given price we must call it. SB could be forcing a fold or trying to extract value of our losing hands.
These stats you provided are good, it seems that SB is a decent player, but most important is how often SB steals versus BB preflop: our decision making postflop relies on this information.

 

[gustav197poker]

In a blind duel the ranges tend to be wider. In a sample > 700 hands, we can look at % fold 3-bet (OOP) and use that data to our advantage.
Disregarding this information, I see that his PFR is pretty decent, so I'd go calling and 3-bet with KTs+.
The flop is a bit bad for us as we block QKs in opponent's range and the bluffs JT and AT who might be looking for some action here. That leaves us dominated with more AK combos, while beating some inferior hands that SB could PFR. I like the x/x line against a V that by default should have a slightly tighter range than ours, given that we dominate him in position.
The turn has a relative impact on ranges, as there are now some spade combos that V could be bluffing.
We don't have relevant blockers though: we don't have spades, we don't have J, and for that reason I'd rather fold here or bluff our hand, but which would be my last option. I would first look at his AF OTT and and his chances of folding on this texture.
The river is not as neutral as blind positions are being played. And V could have any bottom set, random hands that beat us. Here I would observe the WTSD stat, although it could be biased, since in reality thousands of hands are needed to have more accurate information.
IMO we have a standard fold OTR, if we don't fold on previou street.
Greetings.

 

[puzzlefish]

As played, raise from SB tells you a lot about the range you are playing against. I think you can value bet on the flop but I don't think you will get worse hands to call and you will frequently be value betting against yourself here. Turn action is either a flush draw betting or a made hand getting value. Can't really tell them apart now as a result of the previous street. It continues on the river as either a missed flush draw bluff or something like AK, KQ, QQ betting for thin value. You are pretty much flying blind and hoping to catch a bluff or lower pair trying to get weaker K hands to fold.

I think it's played about right if you don't want to become exploitable, but you are behind a lot of the time here. But really it should be folded preflop. No need to defend this one from BB.

 

[Station_Master]

I think all 4 streets were played well.

Its a clear call pre, and on the flop I think either checking or betting is fine.

Once we check back flop, many villains will reads us as weak/capped and so will start betting, yes he could have a better hand but he could even be value betting worse and there are tons of draws available plus random bluffs. None of the draws complete on the river and we have top pair so I think a very standard call - yes you will be shown better hands sometimes but you only need to win 29% of the time and I would expect you to win more like 40%+

 

[fundiver199]

Once again I agree with Station_Master. Personally I prefer betting the flop to take control of the hand and deny some equity. But if you check back for pot control, you absolutely 100% have to call both turn and river. The whole point of checking back flop with top pair is to induce bluffs, and then of course you have to snap off those bluffs, that you induced. Yes he could have some hands, that beat you, like two pair or a set or a rivered straight. But he can also have a ton of completely random bluffs or maybe even be valueowning himself with a hand like K9 or AQ.