Originally Posted by nax
This is an insta shove spot, but what did you do at the end?
I do the mental maths think that ....
ev jam = ev jam fold + ev jam call
ev call = ev preflop + ev postflop fold + ev posflop jam call
so think that they probabally call with 77+, AJ or what ever
and this means by standard they fold about more than 50% times.... I mean two player folds both!
so ev jam = 50%* + 50% [ 40%*87860]=27-28K somthing
If I call, would have again most of A2+ to 44+ and broadway or worse what ever!
i would only fold on A high flop think that only appears about 1/6 chance
so ev call= 50%*+ 1/6[-6000]+5/6*50%[32833+6000*3+1500+2700]=32-33K,
think both player would fold some flop...since...it is very hard to get them paid off, if flops like J 2 9 or what ever...but that is fine...if they do call flop like worst top pair or some flush draws or what ever, think I have some 40-50% equity. if they hit set, two pair or trap with AA, and whatever...It will happen anyway....if jam.
think calling ev is between 22K to 33K something like that.
well compared to jam ev 27-28K chips, i think 22K is fine, just sacrifice 5K ev for a tournament life is OK, and besides potentially would gain extra 5K chips when flop is not scary and doubled up after seen a flop or even better triple up, if get both player call worse hand.
I think in my mind calling is better...
so I do call....
then unfortunately I hit A high board...which I could not go on...
so one player bet..I just save my chips go away....and after two hands bubble breaks, I went to the money
that is the whole story!
I don't know if my decision is better or not at that moment! depends on how u guys think both players' range!