Originally Posted by Colehain
I'm playing a $100 freeze out and about 70 people played in the tournament and were down to about 15 people left SB 800 BB 1600. Started off with 10,000 chips and at about this time I was the chip leader in the tourney with over about 40,000 chips. Short stack out our table goes all in with A9 clubs, for 16,000, everyone else folds until the small blinds wakes up with pocket 10's and just calls, and then there's me in the BB with pocket kings. I end up going all in and the person in the small blind thinks about it and then eventually calls with about 20,000 left behind. I was really surprised he called and was very happy to see his 10's until he happens to bust me with the flop J-7-5-8-9 hitting runner runner for a straight. Did I do the right thing by shoving in that spot? Or should I have just called?
1. If starting stack is 10,000 and 70 players register, it is IMPOSSIBLE to be chip leader with 40,000 when 15 people are left !!!
The AVERAGE stack at this point is 10,000 x (70/15) = 46,667 !
You cannot have less than average stack and be the leader !
2. Even if you had spy camera and knew the cards of both opponents in advance, saying that allin was best, is NOT so easy !!!
If 70 people started, I assume it is only the final table (9 or 10 ?) who get in the money !
There is one WRONG thning about probablities that many people apply, as if it is right.
People count CHIPS.
You are near the bubble. You have an unfoldable allin player and one caller with a stack almost equal to yours.
In the best case, you win it all and... you are big chip leader, but still not in the money, with a lot more hands to play...
Middle case - you win against the big stack, but the small one picks an A and wins the main pot. You lose 16,000 to him and win 20,000 from the big stack. Net result - 4,000 more chips that do not dramatically improve your position.
Worst case - lose 36,000 to 10-10 and soon bust with the remaining 4,000.
Now let us NOT count chips and count MONEY !
If you win, there is absolutely NO guarantee that you will remain chip leader until the end of the tournament.
If you lose, there is 100% guarantee you do NOT win ANY money and even lose your buyin ! Always factor the buyin in the analysis !
It is the NET profit that makes your bankroll.
I just input the three hands in the CardsChat Odds
Calculator. (I can explain the whole mathematics, but I want to cut it short)
KK wins 54.77%, tie 0.27%, loss 44.96%.
And in 27% you don't lose, but win the minimal 4,000.
While in 18% you almost bust.
3. I personally would have called pre-flop.
Probably, on the flop I would shove and then say 100 times "f*ck you, poker software" after the turn and river appear...
4. I have had numerous situations to bust on the bubble with AA, KK, QQ and AK against pathetic hands of huge stack bingo players.
And I did the math...
YES - there ARE cases when on the bubble, you MUST FOLD even AA, if you evaluate the scenarios in terms of MONEY and not in CHIPS.
I wrote about those peculiar situations in another thread.