Help understanding a hand analysis from Moorman's Book of Poker
This is my first post, I hope someone might be able to explain this to me.
I'm currently reading Moorman's Book of Poker, which is an online tournament strategy book where Chris Moorman critiques some real hands from online tournaments and how he'd play them.
I've come across a hand and I'm a little confused by the analysis.
For anyone who has the book, I'm referring to Hand 29.
Here's a basic breakdown:
Hero(SB) $401,123, BB $207,378, CO $63,022, BTN $372,477.
Hero is SB with
CO folds, BTN raises to 25,000, Hero folds, BB calls 15,000.
BB checks, BTN checks.
BB bets 30,000, BTN folds.
- This is a great spot to apply pressure on the button player as it's the final table.
- You should re-raise here as the button is not going to go out of his way to get involved with you, because you can bust him and there are two stacks that are much shorter.
- Even if the button calls your re-raise, he will probably play straightforwardly postflop because he doesn't want to risk a significant proportion of his stack when there are two shorter stacks.
- In this spot you could re-raise profitably with any two cards.
- Winning the pot here against the button, even preflop, will give you a significant chip lead and allow you to bully your opponents four-handed.
- At the final table it is crucial to be aware of the stack sizes, since these situations in which a play with any two cards is +EV can easily arise.
Most of the analysis I completely agree with. But I don't understand why a raise with ANY two cards would be a +EV play? Is this just based on the odds
of the BTN folding to your re-raise and you taking down the pot? Why is it only a +EV play due to the stack sizes at this point of the game? How is this calculated?
I hope it's not a silly question, thanks for your help!