dooydoo
Rock Star
Silver Level
Overbetting the River for Value
What is overbetting?
Overbetting is betting bigger than pot.
Why do it?
Just like any other bet, you should overbet for 2 main reasons.
Reason 1 - For value. Make worse hands call.
Reason 2 - As a bluff. Make better hands fold.
What is some bet size math i could use?
A basic guideline on how big your bet has to be in order to break even is as follows.
For example if the pot is $100 and you bet 50% pot ($50) you need him to fold 33% of the time to break even. 50/(100+50) = 33%.
50% - 50/150 - 33%
60% - 60/160 - 37,5%
70% - 70/170 - 41%
75% - 75/175 - 43%
80% - 80/180 - 44,4%
90% - 90/190 - 47,4%
100% - 100/200 - 50%
125% - 125/225 - 55.5%
150% - 150/250 - 60%
200% - 200/300 - 67%
As you can see, the bigger your bet, the more successful you have to be if bluffing. If you want to overbet bluff the river for 150% pot, the villain will have to fold at least 60% of the time for you to profit. We will see later how often villains fold to various sized river bets.
Why not overbet the river as a bluff?
At the micros i highly recommend not overbetting as a bluff. Because of the lack of fold equity and the lack of players being able to read hands, your chances of getting someone to fold is much less likely than you need in order to be profitable.
Even though mathematically we can show profit by getting them to fold as you will see later where i post screen shots of my success rates, its not worth the variance. Most of the time it will be better to give up or bluff smaller.
There is also no need to balance. No one is going to pick up that you overbet only for value. Most players play their cards and if the cards match the board strong enough, they will call regardless of bet size.
When should I overbet the river for value?
When you have a strong hand that is ahead of the villain's range and you think the villain also has a strong hand, you can overbet. If the villain has a weak hand based on the post flop actions, its better to bet smaller as he will fold far too often to an overbet.
How successful is overbetting the river?
The following tables are filtered out so i only have value hands and when i bet the river with various sizes.
This is betting 3/4 pot on the river (75-89% pot).
This is when i pot the river (90-100% pot).
This table is when i overbet the river (101-149%).
This is when i bet 1.5x pot or more.
Analysis
As you can see from the tables, my won $ at showdown is high for all situations. The reason that it is less successful when i bet 1.5x+ the pot is because it will isolate their calling range more to their strongest of hands than if i bet pot. They will fold more medium and medium-strong hands and end up calling with better hands at a higher frequency. This however should not hinder you from overbetting. Its still very very profitable in the long run.
My saw showdown is on average 39% when i overbet so the villains will fold their hand about 61% of the time. As you can see when i bet 75-100% pot i get folds about 63% of the time. That is a very small difference and with the money i win by overbetting, it massively makes up the 2% difference when they fold.
What should i look for when overbetting?
When you are thinking about overbetting, there are certain things you need to look for before you bet. They are:
1. Your hand strength. You need to have a strong hand if you are going to overbet for value. When overbetting you isolate their calling range to the strongest of their hands. So in order for you to profit, you need to beat that range.
2. Is the villain capable of calling overbets. Some players will fold everything but the nuts to an overbet. You need to determine based on the players stats and tendancies if he is likely to call an overbet. Usually nitty players wont call an overbet without a very nutted hand. Very loose bad players will gladly call an overbet with any top pair. There is not clear way to know if anyone is capable but usually the bad players are the most capable and the good regs and nits can fold.
3. Did the board texture come out in a way that would likely have improved his hand. If the turn and river go brick brick and its unlikely the villain improved, then it would be not a good spot to overbet as they will be folding very often. If the turn and river came out connecting the board but still leaving you with a very strong hand, then its a better spot to overbet as they most likely improved to 2 pair or better.
What should i do vs an overbet on the river?
I recommend folding to river overbets by default. One reason is if we are hero calling, we have to be successful far more often than if it was a 3/4 bet. The times they are bluffing are tiny compared to the times they will overbet for value so odds are we wont be nearly as successful as we need to be.
Overbets will almost always be fat value bets so we should limit our calling range to the very tip top of our range until proven otherwise.
Conclusion
Overbetting the river is a great tool to get maximum value from players who were going to call regardless of bet size. Why not bet more if they were going to call anyways right?
Mathematically it doesnt need to work much more often than a normal pot size bet but when it does you get a ton more value.
Try it out in your game and dont get upset if it doesnt work for you the first time, keep doing it in the right situations and you will end up showing more profit than if you never did it at all.
If you have any feedback or add ons feel free to post them.
Thanks for your time and go out there and make some money!
What is overbetting?
Overbetting is betting bigger than pot.
Why do it?
Just like any other bet, you should overbet for 2 main reasons.
Reason 1 - For value. Make worse hands call.
Reason 2 - As a bluff. Make better hands fold.
What is some bet size math i could use?
A basic guideline on how big your bet has to be in order to break even is as follows.
For example if the pot is $100 and you bet 50% pot ($50) you need him to fold 33% of the time to break even. 50/(100+50) = 33%.
50% - 50/150 - 33%
60% - 60/160 - 37,5%
70% - 70/170 - 41%
75% - 75/175 - 43%
80% - 80/180 - 44,4%
90% - 90/190 - 47,4%
100% - 100/200 - 50%
125% - 125/225 - 55.5%
150% - 150/250 - 60%
200% - 200/300 - 67%
As you can see, the bigger your bet, the more successful you have to be if bluffing. If you want to overbet bluff the river for 150% pot, the villain will have to fold at least 60% of the time for you to profit. We will see later how often villains fold to various sized river bets.
Why not overbet the river as a bluff?
At the micros i highly recommend not overbetting as a bluff. Because of the lack of fold equity and the lack of players being able to read hands, your chances of getting someone to fold is much less likely than you need in order to be profitable.
Even though mathematically we can show profit by getting them to fold as you will see later where i post screen shots of my success rates, its not worth the variance. Most of the time it will be better to give up or bluff smaller.
There is also no need to balance. No one is going to pick up that you overbet only for value. Most players play their cards and if the cards match the board strong enough, they will call regardless of bet size.
When should I overbet the river for value?
When you have a strong hand that is ahead of the villain's range and you think the villain also has a strong hand, you can overbet. If the villain has a weak hand based on the post flop actions, its better to bet smaller as he will fold far too often to an overbet.
How successful is overbetting the river?
The following tables are filtered out so i only have value hands and when i bet the river with various sizes.
This is betting 3/4 pot on the river (75-89% pot).
This is when i pot the river (90-100% pot).
This table is when i overbet the river (101-149%).
This is when i bet 1.5x pot or more.
Analysis
As you can see from the tables, my won $ at showdown is high for all situations. The reason that it is less successful when i bet 1.5x+ the pot is because it will isolate their calling range more to their strongest of hands than if i bet pot. They will fold more medium and medium-strong hands and end up calling with better hands at a higher frequency. This however should not hinder you from overbetting. Its still very very profitable in the long run.
My saw showdown is on average 39% when i overbet so the villains will fold their hand about 61% of the time. As you can see when i bet 75-100% pot i get folds about 63% of the time. That is a very small difference and with the money i win by overbetting, it massively makes up the 2% difference when they fold.
What should i look for when overbetting?
When you are thinking about overbetting, there are certain things you need to look for before you bet. They are:
1. Your hand strength. You need to have a strong hand if you are going to overbet for value. When overbetting you isolate their calling range to the strongest of their hands. So in order for you to profit, you need to beat that range.
2. Is the villain capable of calling overbets. Some players will fold everything but the nuts to an overbet. You need to determine based on the players stats and tendancies if he is likely to call an overbet. Usually nitty players wont call an overbet without a very nutted hand. Very loose bad players will gladly call an overbet with any top pair. There is not clear way to know if anyone is capable but usually the bad players are the most capable and the good regs and nits can fold.
3. Did the board texture come out in a way that would likely have improved his hand. If the turn and river go brick brick and its unlikely the villain improved, then it would be not a good spot to overbet as they will be folding very often. If the turn and river came out connecting the board but still leaving you with a very strong hand, then its a better spot to overbet as they most likely improved to 2 pair or better.
What should i do vs an overbet on the river?
I recommend folding to river overbets by default. One reason is if we are hero calling, we have to be successful far more often than if it was a 3/4 bet. The times they are bluffing are tiny compared to the times they will overbet for value so odds are we wont be nearly as successful as we need to be.
Overbets will almost always be fat value bets so we should limit our calling range to the very tip top of our range until proven otherwise.
Conclusion
Overbetting the river is a great tool to get maximum value from players who were going to call regardless of bet size. Why not bet more if they were going to call anyways right?
Mathematically it doesnt need to work much more often than a normal pot size bet but when it does you get a ton more value.
Try it out in your game and dont get upset if it doesnt work for you the first time, keep doing it in the right situations and you will end up showing more profit than if you never did it at all.
If you have any feedback or add ons feel free to post them.
Thanks for your time and go out there and make some money!