D
Dwarf
Rock Star
Silver Level
For those unfamiliar: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem
The Monty Hall problem parallels making post flop decisions.
This is a lot like playing AK (In the negative.)
Odds are AK will win 45%+ of the time.
Odds are AK will not flop an A or K 66% of the time.
In general, this means changing your decision of how you are playing your AK is the opposite of the Monty Hall problem. You lose (in general) not playing it out to the river.
Why do I mention this?
Because AK is played in 2 very different ways. Some folks like to 3bet/4bet/Shove (capitalizing on all their potential equity). Other folks like to 3bet/flat call, and play out the hand.
My point:
Playing an aggressive style while holding AK preflop is good for balancing your AA KK QQ hands. HOWEVER Giving up on the flop if you don't hit Ace or King (even though you bet aggressive preflop) is a -EV play. If you are going to give up on the flop without hitting an Ace/King -> you should play Ace King to trap... Don't 3bet, don't call 4bets, don't lead out when OOP. Then when you do hit your A/K plan to check call/check raise.
The Monty Hall problem parallels making post flop decisions.
This makes sense because the act of switching does not change your earlier decisions probability. You had a 1/3 chance of being right the first time and given an opportunity switching gives your 2/3 chance of picking incorrectly winning odds.In the game show example, contestants who switch have a2/3chance of winning the car
This is a lot like playing AK (In the negative.)
Odds are AK will win 45%+ of the time.
Odds are AK will not flop an A or K 66% of the time.
In general, this means changing your decision of how you are playing your AK is the opposite of the Monty Hall problem. You lose (in general) not playing it out to the river.
Why do I mention this?
Because AK is played in 2 very different ways. Some folks like to 3bet/4bet/Shove (capitalizing on all their potential equity). Other folks like to 3bet/flat call, and play out the hand.
My point:
Playing an aggressive style while holding AK preflop is good for balancing your AA KK QQ hands. HOWEVER Giving up on the flop if you don't hit Ace or King (even though you bet aggressive preflop) is a -EV play. If you are going to give up on the flop without hitting an Ace/King -> you should play Ace King to trap... Don't 3bet, don't call 4bets, don't lead out when OOP. Then when you do hit your A/K plan to check call/check raise.