How do you deal with good reads BUT bad outcomes

It has been an evening full of misery - each time I get my chips in the pot - I'm ahead but some kind of suckout always seem to happen in FullTilt.

Case 1: 5$ 90 player sng - early stage - lots of limpers 20/40 - I raise 320 from late position with AQ - get 2 callers - flop 10 9 5 with 2 suited cards - it is checked to me (1 good player 1 donky) - so pot is like 1000 with each of us left with 2400 give or take. It is checked to me - so I am pretty sure that nobody hit anything - good player with KQ/KJ donky with any 2 cards. trusting my read I go allin - donky calls with J8 offsuite - donky gets runner-runner flush with 8

Case 2: 10$ ko 90player sng -
late stage near bubble. I have a good read on a guy - he is a donk - goes all-in at least 2 times per round usually with any kind of A rag (about 15 hands ago I folded AQ to all-in from another player & and his all in - 99 vs A7o with suckout A on river) - so when I pick up AQ again - and his allin - im 99% sure I'm against A rag - so I call - sure enough A2o - flop comes with 2 - bye bye money.

Case 3: 24$ KO (each KO 4$) 90player sng (i got a free tourney chip) - late stage of tournament - I'm in BB with AJ suited 7000 chips left. 1 player is anted in - donky is next to call 1600 blind [8500 chips] - short stack goes all-in for 2900. I'm not worried about small stacks - I know donky has gone allin with wide variety of hands (hes been to where he had only 1 BB left) - so I'm sure my AJs is good - I push allin [want to avoid folding to a donky bluff on the flop] - sure enough my read is good as Donky turns over A7 offsuite. 7 on flop, A on turn (and antedin guy makes str8 on river) - bye-bye money again

Case 4: 10$ 1table sng - 4-way limp pot - from SB I hit two pair with A8 - 2 clubs on flop [Ac 10s 8c]. I bet the pot [200] - BB calls. turn card 6c. I am pretty sure that BB did not call me with flush draw - but with A. there is 600 in pot - I have 1000 left BB has 2000. I go all in - my read is spot on - he has Ace with 4 of clubs. Another club in the river & another suckout.

I am puzzled - as I got my chips in with good reads & best hand - yet drawn out each time; am I doing something terribly wrong or should I just go back on another day?

take a little breather, your instincts are right and you should therefore go with your gut and know that in the long run your good reads will pay you off

Unfortunately, people won't fold just because you think they should. They will often call either because they have the proper number of outs, because they have a big stack and are willing to gamble to knock you out, because they're bored and want to double up or leave, because they think you're bluffing, or simply because they like to gamble.

In case #1 the preflop call with J8 was a bit donkish but post flop he was even with you and in good shape even against a pair. Someone else could have easily check-called with mid pair or flush draw so pushing was a risky move. You rolled the dice and got caught.

Case 2 - you definitely had the odds to call, but it depends how important the bubble is to you. 30% chance (not knowing his cards) that you'll get knocked out right then, 70% that you'll double up, would you take it? If yes, it was the right move but it's simply not going to work out well every time.

Case 4 may be a good one for an exercise - what hands could he have called after the flop, and how many outs does he really have against you? If it turned out he did have the flush how many do you have?

J8 off-suite with inside str8 draw (4 outs against big pair)? I cant think of a time I would call allin with a hand like that - but maybe that's just me (my read was that 2 ppl in pot did not hit the pair - so I just went with my gut).

2 - yes - i think 70/30 i would take always (as with blinds & antes high - you just cant wait for big pairs - I like coin flips with a pair too - if I can be the 1st in)

4 - decent call would have like Ak/Aq with flush card - in which case 3+3+flushcards. if he had flush on turn - 4 outs


Well - after this beatdown extraordinaire - I went to play cash games - so I made it back & more

You're going to bust out of a lot of tourneys even when you play perfectly, which really never happens. When you bust out on bad beats or sick coolers (like KK all-in preflop snapped up by AA), then you know you did the right thing, played it well and you'd do it all over again if you could. Focus on your play and the decisions you made instead of the unlucky outcomes.

this has happened to me so many time. i read the guy very well, but he caught it on the river. what happened was that over bit on the turn (all in), automatically i knew that he was bluffing. so i called.
this usually happens to good players i think.

do you feel you made the right moves?
would you play it the same way again?
or will you madke adjustments?
or just give up cause it is too hard to win?

Keep playing good poker, don't let it get to you.

you cant be upset from suck outs keep playing your instincs..you cant be regret about a good play gone wrong over luck

Down

Wow, you really sound down, out and depressed. Maybe it's the time of year as many do get down this time of year. Try taking a break and relaxing some in the new year. It's also so funny how luck and leave us for a while so try playing again in a few days. Better luck at the tables.

nothin you can do when you get outdrawn, you're makin all the right moves so keep doing what ur doing, long-term you'll be good, but ya, it sucks short term

As long as your read was right pertaining to the hand, you can not control the outcome of the cards. Through out your poker playing life you will always have bad beats handed to you. You will have to just step back and as they say" Stop and smell the roses"

We had some cheerful happy holdem games over the holidays with families and friends. We play for low stakes so no one really wins or loses big but it can be lots of fun. However, it was funny as one of the family members was totally unlucky all the time and he is usally pretty lucky at holdem.

I agree with the majority here, if you are playing your A game and bad things happen, thats poker, you will prevail overall. Dont let coolers put you on tilt. I lost with pocket Ks 8 times in a row recently -- was afraid to ever play them again. But then things changed again...

Most recently I lost a chunk of my bankroll to bad beats at some cash games. I took a couple of days off and then put my head into some poker books.

First day back I placed 5th in a 90 man SNG. I did not totally replace that chunk of my bankroll, but I feel a hell of a lot better about the game.

Yes you are doing one thing wrong, you are not playing the players. It sounds like you are getting good reads on these people but by just pushing you even the playing field and let the poker gods decide, and usually they are mean. Even if you will win the hand 4/1 or even 6/1 is not the right play. Why push on the bubble first of all? and also not even many donks will call any size bet with a pair of ducks on the flop, if you decide to bluff. But also you may want to be more patient with your double ups. It looks like you are in fine position with at least average stacks, so why are you pushing? Try being a little more patient and i promise it will pay off!

GL on the felts have some fun, but remember you dont have to double up every hand you play!

Makwa said:

I agree with the majority here, if you are playing your A game and bad things happen, thats poker, you will prevail overall. Dont let coolers put you on tilt. I lost with pocket Ks 8 times in a row recently -- was afraid to ever play them again. But then things changed again...

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Words if wisdom!!! If you get the money in and you have the best of it, what more can you really do?

Bobby Baldwin (weird sense of humor) mentioned that being sucked out on a lot is a sign that you are a good player. "That's great Bobby, but does it have to hurt so much?" (he had a nice belly roll laugh as he walked away).

If your reads on a player are good and your losing out at the end its gambling.. no matter if you know what the hole cards of your opponant are you may still get that bad beat on the end... when it happens to me i get very frustrated, but if im playing online i sitout for a few hands smoke a cig. and just try to relax before coming back.. at live tables i just try to bite my tongue and relax... ppl know you just took a hit and they will try to capitolize on it

Thanks ppl - I guess the key is to not go on tilt - poker is like rollercoaster - after those bad beats - I went on cash games - won 1000$ - then lost it all - now back upto 500$ - key for me is not to tilt over this but keep Playing cash games without the freaking tilt

BTW - played 10$ midnight madness last night (b4 making 500) - made it 350th place (351 got paid - yay - I'm the master of sng tourneys!!!)