This is a discussion on Caliing raise with flushdraw + or - ev within the online poker forums, in the Learning Poker section; I am fairly ashamed to ask this because I know its a very simple concept that for some reason I cant wrap my head around.
I am fairly ashamed to ask this because I know its a very simple concept that for some reason I cant wrap my head around. I think I understand breakeven percentages so when I hold a king high flush draw with 18% equity on the turn against my opponents value range, meaning i hit my flush 18% of the time and then I beat his value range, which is sets and better. Lets say I am certain he holds a set but I still go all in (just for the sake of the explanation), and my opponent calls with a set. This bet was - EV, right? because i put money into the pot when i knew he had a better hand. this is logical. but then what if i don't go all in, but go 1cent short of all in, when i know he has a set. and then he reraises the 1cent that he has left. then calling that 1cent would be a + EV call right? because I am only calling 1cent to have a chance to win the whole pot for only 1cent. which are good odds for the price, right? So that logic would render the whole hand+ev then? because the whole hand lead me to me buying the right to win the pot for only 1 cent, when i have 18% equity? But how can it be both ways? when essentially it is just the same thing happening, us putting all of our money into the pot when he has the winning hand. I know i don't get something i just don't know what
Really glad you asked something you dont understand and willing to learn.
I dont have very definitive answer however it may help.
When you raise on the turn when you are basically dead you are burning money, however if you need to add only 1/60 or so of the pot to win it all and you have at least single out alive it becomes +ev as you say, but decision prior that was massively negative ev.
Thats probably the worst explanation you have read (dont try reading it again, haha)
1. Jamming would be -EV unless you think he will sometimes fold his set.
2. Betting everything besides 1c is also -EV.
3. If you did that and he shoved, calling the shove for 1c more would be +EV.
4. You have to be a little careful with the term +EV. It means that one action is higher EV than another base point action, usually folding or sometimes checking. I don't think it has a clear meaning to say the hand as a whole is +EV or -EV instead of talking about specific actions.
With that said, just because your final decision in a hand is +EV (calling the 1c beats folding), that doesn't mean you played the hand well or will win money overall if the situation repeats itself many times.
+/- EV is a tool that can be used to make betting decisions at any point with your given hand.
When you make a massively -EV decision that leaves you with a mildly +EV decision on a subsequent action, you still played your hand terrible and overall the outcome is -EV.
In your case, the majority of the stack that you put at risk will be lost more often than it will be won. However, in the instances where you put in the remaining 1 cent, you will make more money over the long term than if you just folded when facing that remaining 1 cent bet - since by folding you would just be giving away the entire stack that you had bet before for no reason at all..
re: Poker & Caliing raise with flushdraw + or - ev
Sorry, but I think you started to study mathematics with integrals. At the low limits, all this does not work, because here there are a lot of maniacs playing who can call all-in with unsuccessful 72 without even knowing that this is the worst of all hands. They do not stay in the tournament for a long time, but they drink a lot of blood. If you nevertheless master all these mathematical wisdom, then at a long distance you will find yourself in the pros, but your bankroll will be so insignificant and inconsistent with the efforts spent on its construction. If you are not going to become a professional and play at high stakes, you will be completely disappointed. Do not bother with math, enjoy the game. Good luck!