Originally Posted by WVHillbilly
Sorry about the derail TPC but the whole AK is a drawing hand BS needed to be addressed.
I still like your shove.
No worries, I know the "AK is a drawing hand" gets to you just as much as SSers.
I understand why you like the shove, but with the stack sizes and the stage we are at in the SnG it's not the right play at all. I think the above ICM calculation will give you a better understanding of why.
Originally Posted by cjatud2012
To answer TPC, I can see how there might be better plays than shoving considering the stack sizes. However, shoving is still +EV, and eliminates the possibilities of any mistakes we might make in the future (which is bound to happen, playing out of position).
Shoving does make the hand easier to play, but it's not the right play, due to the stack sizes as you mentioned. I still want some responses from other folks on what they think the right play is so I don't want to elaborate to much more.
It's really not a +EV play if we take ICM into consideration (see above). Granted, villain needs a pretty good hand to call us and how often does he have a hand to call us with? We don't have a huge number of hands on the villain, but lets assume we had 1k hands on the villain with the same stats. He is going to call us more than he folds there because he is going to have a hand more than he wouldn't. If that makes sense, I'm not explaining it very well. Long story short, the risk isn't worth the reward.
Originally Posted by PC69
Jumping in here and not looking at all the responses.. His steal is 4% and his 3bet% fold is 50% here Id likely call here or fold. If iam jamming hes likely going to call and I need to suck out. If I fold hes gonna take down a small pot and Iam gonna have a better spot. Its a great spot for discussion because a lot of leaks are exposed here including mine at times. If Ive gone few orbits and hes not betting that spot alot Iam most likely to flat preflop and see a flop. He may be on a pp and If i flop it then i got the odds to get him in. If i dont I still got some equity to fold. Quick thought before bed, sorry if its a little short.
No need to be sorry, these are the kind of things I'm looking for.
I've shown why shoving is the wrong play in above the above posts and calculations. So what is the better play here? There have been some good responses so far, lets have some more.