$5.50 NLHE STT: Call all in OTF with AKs NFD against very active villain

mbrenneman0

mbrenneman0

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1, do you bet the flop here?
2, do you call his shove? I think we are getting odds to call, even in an ICM sense...if i fold, to his shove OTF I have a 10.3% equity share of the prize pool. If I call I have 20.6% if i win, or 4.3% if i lose

In post-game analysis, ive identified his range as:
99-JJ,55,KTs,QTs+,J8s+,T4s+,97s,95s,87s,KTo,Q2o+,J4o+,T7o+,95o

I am 65% equity against this range

if i narrow it further to strictly Tx hands, sets, and two pairs which i think is most likely (99-TT,55,KTs,QTs,JTs,T4s+,95s,KTo,QTo,JTo,T7o+,95o) I'm at 45%
can I reduce the range any further? or is this a pretty realistic range?

worst case scenario, im risking 6% ICM to win 10% ICM with 45% equity. (+0.54$EV)
is that the right way to think about this from a math perspective?


iPoker - $5+$0.50|<> NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (UTG+1): 34 BB
MP: 23.48 BB (VPIP: 57.14, PFR: 35.71, 3Bet Preflop: 20.00, Hands: 14)
MP+1: 51.86 BB (VPIP: 35.71, PFR: 7.14, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 14)
CO: 25.28 BB (VPIP: 57.14, PFR: 7.14, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 14)
BTN: 29.6 BB (VPIP: 14.29, PFR: 7.14, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 14)
SB: 51.4 BB (VPIP: 50.00, PFR: 14.29, 3Bet Preflop: 12.50, Hands: 14)
BB: 7.18 BB (VPIP: 50.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 14)
UTG: 47.2 BB (VPIP: 35.71, PFR: 7.14, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 14)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has K:club: A:club:

fold, Hero raises to 3.3 BB, MP calls 3.3 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold

Flop: (8.1 BB, 2 players) 9:heart: 5:club: T:club:
Hero bets 4.04 BB, MP raises to 20.18 BB, Hero calls 16.14 BB
 
Last edited:
T

trent32la

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Nh, snap call. Betting the flop 100% of the time.

Considering we're 8 handed in a 9man STT, I don't really think we need to be focused on ICM or $EV at this point (please correct me if I am wrong WiZZiM). We have two overs + a FD against what is likely a one pair or worse hand.

The range you give your opponent is a tad too wide, though a 57/35 over what is a small sample will definitely be hooding wider than normal range here.
 
mbrenneman0

mbrenneman0

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in the moment during the hand, I was thinking he is almost always showing up with top pair. and sometimes JJ. I dont think he shows up with a pair of 9s very often. but i do think, based on the type of player he is, that he could be making this play with worse flush draws or even straight draws...

i know ICM isnt necessary this early. 1.7:1 is pot odds in ICM and 2:1 is pot odds in chips so it does make a bit of a difference. but mostly I want to practice thinking in terms of ICM since its a new concept to me.

(EDIT: getting a little too sleepy for math lol, correction to pot odds)
 
Last edited:
Beanfacekilla

Beanfacekilla

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mbrenneman0 said:
1, do you bet the flop here?
2, do you call his shove? I think we are getting odds to call, even in an ICM sense...if i fold, to his shove OTF I have a 10.3% equity share of the prize pool. If I call I have 20.6% if i win, or 4.3% if i lose

In post-game analysis, ive identified his range as:
99-JJ,55,KTs,QTs+,J8s+,T4s+,97s,95s,87s,KTo,Q2o+,J4o+,T7o+,95o

I am 65% equity against this range

if i narrow it further to strictly Tx hands, sets, and two pairs which i think is most likely (99-TT,55,KTs,QTs,JTs,T4s+,95s,KTo,QTo,JTo,T7o+,95o) I'm at 45%
can I reduce the range any further? or is this a pretty realistic range?

worst case scenario, im risking 6% ICM to win 10% ICM with 45% equity. (+0.54$EV)
is that the right way to think about this from a math perspective?


iPoker - $5+$0.50|<> NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (UTG+1): 34 BB
MP: 23.48 BB (VPIP: 57.14, PFR: 35.71, 3Bet Preflop: 20.00, Hands: 14)
MP+1: 51.86 BB (VPIP: 35.71, PFR: 7.14, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 14)
CO: 25.28 BB (VPIP: 57.14, PFR: 7.14, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 14)
BTN: 29.6 BB (VPIP: 14.29, PFR: 7.14, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 14)
SB: 51.4 BB (VPIP: 50.00, PFR: 14.29, 3Bet Preflop: 12.50, Hands: 14)
BB: 7.18 BB (VPIP: 50.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 14)
UTG: 47.2 BB (VPIP: 35.71, PFR: 7.14, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 14)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has K<font color='black'>♣</font> A<font color='black'>♣</font>

fold, Hero raises to 3.3 BB, MP calls 3.3 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold

Flop: (8.1 BB, 2 players) 9<font color='red'>♥</font> 5<font color='black'>♣</font> T<font color='black'>♣</font>
Hero bets 4.04 BB, MP raises to 20.18 BB, Hero calls 16.14 BB
Click to expand...



My official input is as follows...


Raise smaller pre. 2.5x should be fine.

Bet flop 1/2 pot, so that's what you did.

Not folding here. Nope.
 
W

WiZZiM

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icm isn't that much of an issue here. if we call and lose we're still left with 10bb and a perfectly fair chance of cashing the tournament. but if we call and win, we now have a monster stack which we can use to make sure we cash and have more of a chance for first place. yeah i call.
 
mbrenneman0

mbrenneman0

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Beanfacekilla said:
My official input is as follows...


Raise smaller pre. 2.5x should be fine.

Bet flop 1/2 pot, so that's what you did.

Not folding here. Nope.
Click to expand...

My sizing pre was to try to avoid a multiway pot. 2.5 is standard, but the table was very lose


WiZZiM said:
icm isn't that much of an issue here. if we call and lose we're still left with 10bb and a perfectly fair chance of cashing the tournament. but if we call and win, we now have a monster stack which we can use to make sure we cash and have more of a chance for first place. yeah i call.
Click to expand...
Cool thanks
 
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