$3.30 NLHE STT: Combo draw on turn blind vs blind against aggro opponent

America's Cardroom - $3 Regular 9-Max - Level 4 (50/100) - No Limit Holdem
BTN (t2,417)
Hero (SB) (t3,650)
BB (t7,433)
Hero posts the small blind of t50
BB posts the big blind of t100
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Hero [7c][Kc]
BTN folds, Hero calls t50, BB raises to t300, Hero calls t200

POT: t600
*** FLOP *** [10c][Qs][Jd]
Hero checks, BB bets t300, Hero calls t300

POT: t1,200
*** TURN *** [10c][Qs][Jd] [5c]
Hero checks, BB bets t600, Hero ???


I'm playing without a HUD currently, so no stats on villain, but my read was that he's fairly loose and aggressive. Calling here seems awkward given stack sizes. Raising is an option, but if so what sizing would you make it? Also, what better hands are we targeting to fold out? Do you think 10s or jacks will fold here?

A raise on a 5c would not be convincing at this point. We call pre, we check call flop, then what, a check-raise when a 5c peels? What are we representing? What would we call pre J's, T's and trap with them on the flop. What could he have, 22+, AK, AQ, AJ, AT, KQ, KJ, QJ, QT, JT, then add in some that don't beat us, but all in all it seems like he may be ahead unless you have seen him get way out of line. This flop is completely horrible and the club turn is either going to suck you into losing all your chips or ya fold. How many outs do we have? Problem is the outs that complete our straight may complete his larger straight if he is playing with an A, so 9 is prolly not an out. So the A's and the clubs. K might complete their straight so that might not be an out. It really just seems like he has a made hand too, so winning with K high seams out of the question. Yikes, IDK. If he has shown an ability to fold after throwing that many chips in he might fold T's and J's. Your play looks like you could be repping the Q. But yeah, how much to bet, maybe a raise to 1,200 is all you would need. Rely on the check raise to show the strength and also the min re-raise looks like strength too because it looks like you want him to call it. IDK. I hate that spot with that flop, its not good. Only a club wins it at showdown.

fold preflop lol....

its fine to test this player out by limping the sb, but once he raises you, you simply are in no position to be able to call. ANd considering he's aggressive you are playing into his gameplan way too much.

So once he raised you here i would default to playing a tighter range from the SB but playing that range much stronger than i normally would. So i would fold more often, raise more often and limp to trap more often preflop...

im not going to get into postflop because we should not be there to begin with.

As played,just calling could be an option,then re-evaluate on the river.

Delvuter said:

Problem is the outs that complete our straight may complete his larger straight if he is playing with an A, so 9 is prolly not an out.

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How is a 9 not an Out? Only if villain has AK, neither a 9 nor a King are live. (King chops it)

we don't have the right odds too call on the river, unless we have a read that villain is crazy hyper aggro that's bluffing constant. It's a standard fold we are more than often behind even if we hit one of our outs its not the nuts so could leave us open to loose our full stack.

Why are we not raising preflop? Why give him a free flop while holding a decent hand?

TimovieMan said:

Why are we not raising preflop? Why give him a free flop while holding a decent hand?

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K7s is surely not a PF raising hand?

MoeJurphy said:

K7s is surely not a PF raising hand?

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3-way when the BTN folded and we're in the SB? It's one of the stronger raising hands!

I think what I dislike the most about this line is that you've given yourself zero chance to win without showdown. Passive play vs aggro fish works better when you actually have something

That said, postflop sucks b/c QJT board hits so so much of villain's range that raising instinctively feels awful and we're drawing face up - if a 9 or A hits and he doesn't have a K, where's your $ coming from? As played, fold turn but I'd be raising this pre as standard

once x/call flop and give up , on the turn We can't Have required EQ to call
or a long time ago drawing dead

Lucothefish said:

I think what I dislike the most about this line is that you've given yourself zero chance to win without showdown.

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Not to be too results oriented, but I did win this hand without showdown.

Lucothefish said:

That said, postflop sucks b/c QJT board hits so so much of villain's range that raising instinctively feels awful

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You can say this board hits his range well, but I would argue it hits a limp/call range just as hard. I limp almost my entire range in the SB, especially against aggro opponents, so I can have basically any 2 pair and pair+straight draw combo. Villain may not know any of this obviously, but if we're thinking range vs range, I wouldn't automatically agree that villain's range is stronger than mine.

dnegsisabadreg said:

Not to be too results oriented, but I did win this hand without showdown.

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By jamming turn? There isn't a raise size less than jam that I like with your stack size.

At least with a raise pre (or even c/r flop) we have room to get away from the hand if we have to

dnegsisabadreg said:

You can say this board hits his range well, but I would argue it hits a limp/call range just as hard. I limp almost my entire range in the SB, especially against aggro opponents, so I can have basically any 2 pair and pair+straight draw combo. Villain may not know any of this obviously, but if we're thinking range vs range, I wouldn't automatically agree that villain's range is stronger than mine.

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I wasn't thinking range vs range, that's prob 1 level too high. Just that it's hard to get folds vs fish with connected broadways on the board.

Lucothefish said:

By jamming turn? There isn't a raise size less than jam that I like with your stack size.

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Yes, I check/shoved turn.

Lucothefish said:

At least with a raise pre (or even c/r flop) we have room to get away from the hand if we have to

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I don't think raising pre will generate much fold equity against this type of opponent when he's in position, but its debatable. Also, the trouble with c/r flop is that villain can have a hand like KT, which will certainly continue vs a c/r on the flop. However, I think he'll find it very difficult to call a shove on the turn with that hand. I just think there's a lot more fold equity on the turn.

If you want to make a move on the turn then how about bet/fold instead of c/jam? Again, room to fold. You're risking 30bb to win an 18bb pot when you c/jam, and you're only about 30% to win if called. Let's do some rough math

So you lose a 73bb pot when called 70% of the time, and win a 73bb pot when called 30% of the time. That's -29bb as an average, and you're winning +18bb when you jam and he folds. So, villain needs to fold 62% of his range to make the check/jam on turn a breakeven play.

What range did you assign villain on turn?

Lucothefish said:

If you want to make a move on the turn then how about bet/fold instead of c/jam? Again, room to fold.

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I think donk betting out on the turn looks very fishy and doesn't generate much fold equity. That's obviously a matter of opinion and is villain-dependent, but that's my feel about the player population.

Lucothefish said:

You're risking 30bb to win an 18bb pot when you c/jam, and you're only about 30% to win if called. Let's do some rough math

So you lose a 73bb pot when called 70% of the time, and win a 73bb pot when called 30% of the time. That's -29bb as an average, and you're winning +18bb when you jam and he folds. So, villain needs to fold 62% of his range to make the check/jam on turn a breakeven play.

What range did you assign villain on turn?

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I'm not sure about your math. Here's my calculation:

Current pot = 1800
Hero current stack = 3050

x = chance villain folds

When I win without showdown, I win the 1800 in the pot currently.
When I win at showdown, I win a pot of 7300, but 3050 of that are my own chips I just put in, so I stand to win 7300-3050 = 4250.
When I lose at showdown, I lose the 3050 I have behind.

x*(1800) + (1-x)*(4250*.3 - 3050*.7) = 0
1800x + (1-x)*(1275 - 2135) = 0
1800x + (1-x)*(-860) = 0
1800x - 860 + 860x = 0
2660x = 860
x = 0.32

So in order for this semi-bluff to be a breakeven play, villain needs to fold 32% of the time.

dnegsisabadreg said:

Yes, I check/shoved turn.



I don't think raising pre will generate much fold equity against this type of opponent when he's in position, but its debatable. Also, the trouble with c/r flop is that villain can have a hand like KT, which will certainly continue vs a c/r on the flop. However, I think he'll find it very difficult to call a shove on the turn with that hand. I just think there's a lot more fold equity on the turn.

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vs most aggro opponants raises will typically work way more than limping will. You can try to limp on them, some of the aggros will just check it for you, but if he raises you the first time they will attack limps just as much as they will attack your raises from the SB.

So if it was me, i'd be looking to tighten up a decent amount in the SB, raise and fold more often in general vs an aggro. But i'd look to open up from the button a hell of a lot more to firstly attack the other stack similar to us, but also hopefully get more raises through as the aggro will be tightest playing from the small blind presumably. I'd also be looking to attack the player with a similar stack if he raises on our blinds.

But in general i would be looking to steer clear of the aggro big stack as muc as possible, but since we have a very bad table position, we need to have a plan of attack as we are the ones most needing chips at this stage....


The main problem with limping pre vs aggros apart from the fact that you will get raised alot is that he will have the initiative and position throughout the hand. So when we call his raise, he has initiative and it makes it very hard to know or define his range so we're essentially guessing. Now this flop does hit his range, but since he could be very wide preflop it also misses him a decent chunk also. This is one of the better flops for our hand but the key point here is that we really do not know anything about villians range, he could just be barrelling with air, or he could have hit a piece of this flop we are really just guessing.

As played i would c/j the turn also, but i wouldn't be happy at all with how i played this hand preflop and flop which i believe to be a pretty big mistake.

Fwiw in general i would raise it preflop as part of the plan i have laid out above and if he calls we then have initiative which negates his position to a certain degree. We can then c-bet and if he calls we can define his range somewhat and have more of an idea of what is going on in the hand. So yeah there's a lot of talk about the turn play and how profitable it is, but no real talk about how we put ourselves there by playing extremely passive vs a known aggro opponant.

dnegsisabadreg said:

I think donk betting out on the turn looks very fishy and doesn't generate much fold equity. That's obviously a matter of opinion and is villain-dependent, but that's my feel about the player population.



I'm not sure about your math. Here's my calculation:

Current pot = 1800
Hero current stack = 3050

x = chance villain folds

When I win without showdown, I win the 1800 in the pot currently.
When I win at showdown, I win a pot of 7300, but 3050 of that are my own chips I just put in, so I stand to win 7300-3050 = 4250.
When I lose at showdown, I lose the 3050 I have behind.

x*(1800) + (1-x)*(4250*.3 - 3050*.7) = 0
1800x + (1-x)*(1275 - 2135) = 0
1800x + (1-x)*(-860) = 0
1800x - 860 + 860x = 0
2660x = 860
x = 0.32

So in order for this semi-bluff to be a breakeven play, villain needs to fold 32% of the time.

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Yeah my bad, I can see where I went wrong and yes it's def 32%