$225 NLHE MTT: 3 super satellite bubble decisions

these 3 hands came in a row in a live super satellite. 18 players will get a seat into the $1,100 tourney and 19th place gets $400 and 20th place gets nothing.

We are hand for hand with 20 players. 3 tables of 6,6,7. My table is 7 handed.

I have 68,000. average stack is 39,000. blinds are 1,500/3,000 with a 500 ante.

For those who may not understand about super satellites the tournament is over when we reach 18 players, so there is not extra "value" in amassing chips, survival is everything.

Hand #1
A short stack ships UTG+1 for 17,200. He has been a wild card. doesn't understand satellite strategy. had 60k a few orbits ago when we were like 4 people from the money and he just couldn't slow down, he couldn't stop playing every single hand and now he only has 17,200. It folds to my BB and I have I go into the tank. it only costs me 14,000 more to call and there's already 8,000 in the pot before his ship. so add his 17,000 and the pot contains 25,000 and costs me 14,000. and he's a wild card, plays a ton of hands. should I call or fold?

Hand #2
the very next hand I'm in the SB and my stack is now 51.000. I still have plenty of chips to fold my way into the money (provided that hand for hand doesn't last forever). It folds to my SB and I have . The BB has 21,000 and has been tight and patient. I believe he will fold an overly tight range here since we are on the literal bubble, and I have been playing very reasonably tight. I believe he would fold AT, AJ for sure and most small pocket pairs up to maybe 77 or 88. I don't know if he would call with AQ or not but he would probably call with AK. What should I do? Fold, limp, raise, or jam?

Hand #3
The very next hand I'm on the button with 30,000. Average is now 40,000. We've knocked out 1 player so the next person out gets $400 and then the rest of us will get the seat. We are still hand for hand. Our table doesn't have any real short stacks. one table has 1 guy with about 15,000 and the other table has 2 guys with less than 12,000. It folds to my button and I have . What should I do? Jam, limp, raise, or fold?

Hand #1 just don't think is strong enough. You have a big stack and 14,000 is 1.75 more rounds you can survive and survival is the name of the game for you now. I know he's a wild card but what's his range? Even if he has something as crazy as T7o you're not a huge favorite. I say fold it.

Hand #2 - I make a min raise and fold to a jam. You might consider folding because of what happened the hand before. People might read you as being frustrated and try to take advantage by shoving/reraising light. Def not calling off with this hand.

Hand #3 - This kind of sucks cause now you have a real hand and likely you're getting called light but you don't really want to get called. I guess I'd just raise and hate it if I get jammed on. Do you think your table will let you limp? I would consider limping. I would really be wishing I'd thrown my Axd hands away so I had a big stack to play this hand with.

Hand 1 - fold
Hand 2 - shove
Hand 3 - fold

Well... I disagree trent32la only in one point. You dont need to shove on hand #2. If he is so tight and you shove, he only calls you with premium hands making you kicked out of the money. You can explore much more possibilities raising and check raise on flop (mainly without K or A on board).

danndourado said:

Well... I disagree trent32la only in one point. You dont need to shove on hand #2. If he is so tight and you shove, he only calls you with premium hands making you kicked out of the money. You can explore much more possibilities raising and check raise on flop (mainly without K or A on board).

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With 7bbs effective, we don't necessarily have any room to make a minraise in this spot, let alone play postflop out of position. We also cover the BB by 30k, so even if we get called and lose, we still have 10bbs remaining. If we are going to make a move in this spot, it must be a shove. If our effective stack was >10bb, I think we could justify minraise/folding in this spot.

Everybodylovesdeuces said:

Hand #1 just don't think is strong enough. You have a big stack and 14,000 is 1.75 more rounds you can survive and survival is the name of the game for you now. I know he's a wild card but what's his range? Even if he has something as crazy as T7o you're not a huge favorite. I say fold it.

Hand #2 - I make a min raise and fold to a jam. You might consider folding because of what happened the hand before. People might read you as being frustrated and try to take advantage by shoving/reraising light. Def not calling off with this hand.

Hand #3 - This kind of sucks cause now you have a real hand and likely you're getting called light but you don't really want to get called. I guess I'd just raise and hate it if I get jammed on. Do you think your table will let you limp? I would consider limping. I would really be wishing I'd thrown my Axd hands away so I had a big stack to play this hand with.

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I agree with almost everything here in this reply. If the table would let you get away with limping in hand 3 I agree with taking that line but would just fold otherwise. You have very short stacks on other tables you can outlast. It sucks to fold a decent hand but in a satty like this I'm in survive until I'm the shortest stack mode. You have 2X+ a few other stacks, slow down take a deep breath and monitor the short stacks. If and when you are getting close to being the short stack, start to make moves.

trent32la said:

With 7bbs effective, we don't necessarily have any room to make a minraise in this spot.

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Sure, sure.

Yeah. I really botched those 3 hands but was lucky enough to still win my seat.

I would have folded them all, given your original chip stack. At that point, you don't need to be the person who is taking the risk of knocking somebody out. Let the small stacks cannibalize themselves and take the free seat.

teepack said:

I would have folded them all, given your original chip stack. At that point, you don't need to be the person who is taking the risk of knocking somebody out. Let the small stacks cannibalize themselves and take the free seat.

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Couldn't have said it better myself.


Given the fact you had nearly double the average with 2 players to go until you get you ticket just relax and fold fold fold

I probably would have jammed hand number 2 to put pressure on the big blind on the bubble.

Hand #1, i only see 4d but i fold ATC here, yes even AA. Looks like you are prety much guaranteed a ticket having 70K with avg stack being 40k and 2 left to bust.
Hand #2 i only see the 9d but i'd still fold ATC here if i'm 99% sure to win the satelite with my stack, especialy if you had the stack you hand in #1, however it seems to be close to average stack now. I still think its a fold because the fact you say theres a bunch of people with 20K left. You say ''I still have plenty of chips to fold my way into the money''. Why would you get involved here if you are prety sure to ship the ticket? If you ship it in and he calls with a worse hand you're not happy at all. If you lose that pot you will be one of the short stacks that needs to make a move because you don't know if you can fold to a ticket.
#3 i fold ATC again, yep even aces. Huge chance one of those other stacks will bust before you blinds out.

So from #1 you shouldn't even have looked at your cards, just fold them all. Can easily fold in to the money and ship the ticket. I know it feels nitty, buts its the right thing.

PokerFunKid said:

Hand #1, i only see 4d but i fold ATC here, yes even AA. Looks like you are prety much guaranteed a ticket having 70K with avg stack being 40k and 2 left to bust.
Hand #2 i only see the 9d but i'd still fold ATC here if i'm 99% sure to win the satelite with my stack, especialy if you had the stack you hand in #1, however it seems to be close to average stack now. I still think its a fold because the fact you say theres a bunch of people with 20K left. You say ''I still have plenty of chips to fold my way into the money''. Why would you get involved here if you are prety sure to ship the ticket? If you ship it in and he calls with a worse hand you're not happy at all. If you lose that pot you will be one of the short stacks that needs to make a move because you don't know if you can fold to a ticket.
#3 i fold ATC again, yep even aces. Huge chance one of those other stacks will bust before you blinds out.

So from #1 you shouldn't even have looked at your cards, just fold them all. Can easily fold in to the money and ship the ticket. I know it feels nitty, buts its the right thing.

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you're totally right; don't know what I was thinking especially because about 7 hands earlier I folded QQ preflop to a shove and a re-shove from 2 tight players that covered me (and I was correct). Good thing I got so many chips early on and still made it despite screwing up 3 hands in a row on the actual bubble.

by the way, since you couldn't read the hands it was A4 suited, then A9 suited then 99.

missjacki said:

you're totally right; don't know what I was thinking especially because about 7 hands earlier I folded QQ preflop to a shove and a re-shove from 2 tight players that covered me (and I was correct). Good thing I got so many chips early on and still made it despite screwing up 3 hands in a row on the actual bubble.

by the way, since you couldn't read the hands it was A4 suited, then A9 suited then 99.

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Ah i see. Yeah it doesn't even matter at this point which cards you get. Even if someone shows his hand accidently and he shoves 27o im still folding them all, or when someone flips over a junk hand in the bb im folding aces in the sb. No point risking if you are guaranteed a ticket. If he finds a call a piece of your stack is at risk which would be unnecessary. Congrats on the ship and good luck in the main!

Just fold and let others slug it out,it was a super satellite and you were already comfortably ahead.But hand no.2 might be a good spot tho.

Calling in Hand 1 benefits everyone in the game... except for yourself.
What you gain in tourney equity there when we call & win is practically zero.
What we lose is significant.
And, it's basically just handing out tourney equity to everyone in that game.

I'd probably fold all 3, but in the heat of the moment would consider shipping it in on Hand 2

congrats on the ticket!

fold
shove
fold

actually i will sit out and wait till the end

1. you're getting decent odds, but you want to be reeeealy tight with your chips right now, so it's a pretty easy common sense fold.

2. if he's that tight jamming ATC is totally acceptable, you can't be knocked out and his range is pretty tight like you mention. just keep in mind in these spots when people actually have money locked in they tend to be looser than what you might think....

3.

depends on how much the two blinds have, if you have equal or simliar stacks you can just sigh fold and wiat for the money to burst. we need to do whats best for us in terms of money, not making a long term shove/fold play which might net us $ or chips over thousands of hands in spots like this, we usually won't get to see the long run here so best to just use our common sense and do whatever helps us secure that extra $600

1st hand easy fold , you dont have to be a hero here.

2nd hand i raise / fold if i dont play the first hand. with current stack its a fold.

3rd fold with current chip stack.