$215 NLHE MTT Deep Stacked: Deep Sunday Million Bust Hand

Hey everyone. With a clear mind after a nice rest i've analyzed the hand and i can't find a reason to not fold the turn. I somewhere hope it was correct (shove), but i am prety sure it wasn't. For me it was really clear he had JJ-AA. But i could just not find the fold button. The only hand i can beat is 99 or a huge bluff. I didn't have time bank left and in a hurry i think i made a big mistake. Or is this a cooler. Let me know what you guys think

http://www.boomplayer.com/poker-hands/Boom/12942723_20EEEDD88C

Hmm, you said villain have clear JJ-AA, it's hard to argue without stats...

I've never played SM and not know the field of players..What mean this small 3bet without oop..

But with the size of the stack 30bb is difficult fold in turn/river, when villain bet in flop and you call, pot already very big and you are linked with pot..

When villain again bet turn, he can have hands 99 AKs+FD, Ax with straight draw+flush draw like A9, A5.. and other combos with hands flush draw+ straight...It makes sense..

You can lose only vs TT+ and set....So i think it's normal shove in turn but with hud it would be easier to make the analysis... This discussion in a vacuum.

Thanks man, i put the player on the same skill level as me and was one of the weaker players on the table. The table was full of pro's expect me and 2 other players. There are indeed some monster draws out there but for my feeling this player would only play a hand which had me beat this way. I see it as a big mistake and shouldve folded there. But i want to hear more opinions about it. Also asked 2 pro's to analtlyze it and will give their opinion when i receive it.

Must add i was active that orbit and i gues he played like me. Vpip 13

pretty clear fold here lol. We're given nothing to suggest this guy is bluffing or capable of it, more often they play a linear range, so he might have 99 and AK here, but it's pretty unlikely. More often than not after he makes 3 very strong actions is that he has exactly the hand he is saying he has. Hell, depending on the opponant i might even fold this preflop

Horizon- i see why you think his range might be that, but the op didn't give you any real info, so theres no point in replying. He merely stated that he thinks his range is very tight on the turn, which makes it a clear fold. Just because we 'only' have 30 BB (which is a good stack btw) does not mean we should just blindly get it in here bc were "pot stuck" or "invested too much". We should think about our calls both preflop and flop if we are potstuck by the turn, which we are clearly not in this hand.

Yep, you are totally right WiZZiM. I've thinked about it and alarm bells should've went off when he 3b me again. MoD also stated that when he saw the 3b from the opponent that he tought he must have it. It would be really hard to lay down tens here preflop, but it wouldn't really be a bad idea. Also, the turn should've been snap folded. (After thinking twice and analyzed the hand ofcourse ) He was indeed really saying what he had. I still don't understand why i made the shove there on the turn as i knew i was beat. But because of the long run and no time bank i didn't had enough time to analyze the hand, think twice, and fold. I learned a lot this hand.

Theres plenty of analyze that can be found in the staking thread but ill try to move it to here.

Jaime Staples about the hand:


Ryan / Pr0tentialMN about the hand:

Yes, without stats hard to say you what to do..

But when villain cbet we can find fold because we have stack 30bb, still playable and also ITM zone..
We also need to know cbet% and 3bet%.. If villain have very tight stats and he regular, we need fold, most time we will be behind...

Example if you have stack 10-20bb this was easy call and shove turn....

horizon12 said:

Yes, without stats hard to say you what to do..

But when villain cbet we can find fold because we have stack 30bb, still playable..
We also need to know cbet% and 3bet%.. If villain have very tight stats and he regular, we need fold, most time we will be behind...

Example if you have stack 10-20bb this was easy call and shove turn....

Click to expand...

I think it would've went in pre there (10-15bb) unless i had a really good read with 20bb and either fold pre or turn. I mean, i can still have sick odds. But when i strongly have the feeling he has AA-JJ i should've fold there given that i don't have the right odds. This is the hand i realized i really need a HUD for indeed 3bet% cbet% etc. At the moment he bet 130K i was putting villian on 99-AA, which is really wierd because i made the call/shove. I just didn't know how to handle this situation against a fun player, and now i do.

I've played it twice and the field is very very tough. Congrats on making it that far. In this tournament players in most cases want to play big pots with very strong hand. When he makes the 3bet, he will hace AQo+, AJs+ and 99+. Against that range you are not very favourite. Folding to his 3bet is being too nit, but it wouldn't be so bad if you want to avoid problems, because he will make you fold on lots of flops. The only good fflops that are good for you are the ones that come with a T. If you can't keep the pot small on the flop and turn it is a fold. It's not good your push because you will throw all his bluffs with AQo+ and AJs+ and only call you with hands that beat you