$2.20 NLHE MTT Deep Stacked: Is Shoving Here The Most +EV Move?

Hey CCers ,

Here we are playing a $2.20 buy in 6 max on party poker , villain as you can see is a loose aggressive player who open raises everything and keeps barreling everything post flop[bet flop 100% , CBET flop 100% , bet turn 67% CBET turn 67%].
I don't have many hands for him but seems like I kinda know what I have to encounter.

Running on the PT4 replayer the hand gives me 49% equity against his range here on the turn.
I posted this hand because I really don't know if I reviewed it well. I can give you the final result if you want but I don't think that the result is the main question here.

Is shoving on the turn without spade blockers and with an open ended straight a good move?


partypoker - 1500/3000 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (BB): 40.87 BB
UTG: 60.21 BB (VPIP: 13.33, PFR: 13.33, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 30)
MP: 33.34 BB (VPIP: 34.48, PFR: 17.24, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 30)
CO: 80.89 BB (VPIP: 46.15, PFR: 38.46, 3Bet Preflop: 25.00, Hands: 13)
BTN: 44.32 BB (VPIP: 17.24, PFR: 14.29, 3Bet Preflop: 7.69, Hands: 30)
SB: 40.36 BB (VPIP: 23.33, PFR: 16.67, 3Bet Preflop: 8.33, Hands: 30)

6 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.25 BB) Hero has J♥ Q♣

fold, fold, CO raises to 2.5 BB, BTN calls 2.5 BB, fold, Hero calls 1.5 BB

Flop: (8.75 BB, 3 players) K♠ 2♣ T♠
Hero checks, CO bets 5.83 BB, fold, Hero calls 5.83 BB

Turn: (20.42 BB, 2 players) 6♥
Hero checks, CO bets 14.21 BB, Hero?

I am trying to get better at analyzing these types of spots as well. So I have been working out the math with pot odds and mdf. That being said I would XR the flop. Not having a spade certainly helps.

If you jam the turn he only needs to be good 22% of the time. And using MDF he has to defend 67% of the time.

your stack 40.87-2.5-5.83 = 32.54 BB
pot is 20.42+14.21 = 34.63 BB
pot+ your bet + CO call = 34.63 + 32.54 + 18.33 = 85.5
amount CO has to call 32.54 - 14.21 = 18.33
18.33 / 85.5 = .214

Using MDF from the CO perspective on your shove
pot size 67.17
your bet 32.54
MDF = 67.17 / (67.17 + 32.54) = 67.36%

No shoving there is not the most +EV, it's -EV. You are too short to draw like that and the pot is way too big already for your hand. I don't know how your opponent responds to 3bet pre you didn't said that but he might fold to 3bets.
So i think the best way to win that hand is to 3bet pre depanding on their stats on that, after that if you want to have any fold equity just check shove the flop. If you call there just fold the turn, you are also out of position and that helps him.
He won't call ever with something you are favorite if you shove on turn (ok maybe 9J of spade but that's it)

I believe you are reading too much into too little info. 13 hands is nothing.

Pre:Looks good

Flop:Looks good, could raise, i prefer calling though.

Turn: I like why you want to bluff jam here, your logic is sound. Just lacks the info it needs to reliably do so. I fold.