Preflop aggressor; flopped set; bad turn card

This is one of the weirdest hands I've played. The turn card is totally gross.

I usually don't minraise but I don't want to get repopped preflop and be forced to lay this down. Let someone think I'm minraising with AA.

I overbet on the flop because the board is so wet and I'm hoping for someone with a pair of 9s or better to come over the top.

Do I have any choice other than to c/c turn and river here? Blocking bet? I wanted to shove the turn but I have too much showdown value to turn this into a bluff and he could bet into me with worse. No reads on villain.

Villain showed up with one of the most bizarre holdings I could imagine.

Stacks:
* Bluffnbeaver with $127.10
* BTN with $100.00
* SB with $56.20
* BB with $81.15
* UTG with $100.00
* UTG+1 with $89.50
* MP1 with $107.30
* MP2 with $233.25




Blinds: $0.00/$0.00
Site: full tilt poker
* * Dealt to UTG+1:7♠ 7♣
* * Sklansky group 5
Preflop:
* * 1 players fold.
* * UTG+1 raises to $2
* * 1 players fold.
* * MP2 calls [$2]
* * 2 players fold.
* * SB calls [$1.50]
* * BB calls [$1]
* * Total folds this street: 4
* * Potsize: $8
Flop: 6♣ 7♦ 9♦
* * SB checks
* * BB checks
* * UTG+1 bets [$10]
* * MP2 calls [$10]
* * 2 players folded.
* * Total folds this street: 2
* * Potsize: $28
Turn: 10♠
* * UTG+1 checks
* * MP2 bets [$12]
* * 2 players fold.
* * UTG+1 calls [$12]
* * Potsize: $52
River: A♥
* * UTG+1 checks
* * MP2 bets [$12]
* * UTG+1 calls [$12]

this is 100nl, right? hand converter looks awful. use http://www.stoxpoker.com/hand_history_converter/, imo.

i don't really like the min-raise preflop. too many people end up seeing flop and it's bad for your implied odds.

as played, i don't think you can ever get away from this hand given villain's bet sizing. too many outs to a boat on turn, too good a price on river. And raising is never called by anything else than a 8, so i like the check-calls here.

Some reads on mp2 would be nice. You can definitely make a laydown on the river against certain opponents - getting a good price sounds good, but if you still expect to be bad more often than the odds he's laying you, it makes it a bad call.

Otherwise the hand looks fine. Minraise preflop is meh, but doesn't make much of a difference vs a standard raise imo.

ChuckTs said:

Some reads on mp2 would be nice. You can definitely make a laydown on the river against certain opponents - getting a good price sounds good, but if you still expect to be bad more often than the odds he's laying you, it makes it a bad call.

Click to expand...

Isn't it A9 or T9 often enough to make the call ok regardless of reads on villain?

Yeah, it probably could be. I don't fault a river call at all.

Would you believe villain flipped QQ?

BelgoSuisse said:

this is 100nl, right? hand converter looks awful. use http://www.stoxpoker.com/hand_history_converter/, imo.

i don't really like the min-raise preflop. too many people end up seeing flop and it's bad for your implied odds.

Click to expand...

Don't I want more people to come along, so that if I hit my set, there's a greater chance I get paid?

Well remember they're calling a minraise. Their ranges will be a lot weaker.

You could argue both ways - lots of people for great odds, but weak ranges, or fewer people with stronger ranges.

baudib1 said:

Don't I want more people to come along, so that if I hit my set, there's a greater chance I get paid?

Click to expand...

There's also a greater chance there are more draws out there, so more chance of you paying THEM off. Also if you keep doing that then you'll just get exploited to the MAX once villains pick up on your tendencies. They'll figure your 3-4xbb raise means you DONT have a PP so they'll just repop...Ok well the clever ones will.

baudib1 said:

Would you believe villain flipped QQ?

Click to expand...

Then in my mind, he's the one who should be taken out behind the poker woodshed and given the beating of his life. Calling a minraise and not repopping with Queens...

Anyway, I don't like the minraise either, but I understand why you did it. I guess my biggest problem with it is that once you get called, it's hard to put your opponent on any hand after the flop because they could have come into the pot with almost anything.

baudib1 said:

Don't I want more people to come along, so that if I hit my set, there's a greater chance I get paid?

Click to expand...

People usually don't stack with TPTK in multi-way pots. They do heads-up. so less villains but willing to stack a larger range of hands usually means better implied odds, imo.

I hear minraises bashed so much in general but fwiw there are many great players who minraise exclusively preflop who play 200nl up to at least 1knl if not higher. Now granted maybe you could argue that at 100nl you will get more people stacking weaker and should just do your best to build a pot with a pair, but I'm kind of surprised at some of the negative responses to an unconventional play rather than asking for explanation. If you balance your play a minraise can be a good play preflop.

That said, op what kind of hands do you minraise? Just PPs? Just in EP? Because those are exploitable.

Anyway back to the hand as played, I definitely like the check-call on the turn. River I would consider a blocking bet as well. I'd bet like $20 or so. This is obviously read-dependent but there are many bad players who simply see 2 pair and can't fold. We get value from those without having to call a bigger bet. As played he bets like 1/4 on river you have to call. Too many lower sets/2-pairs value betting thin thinking that because you checked you don't have the straight.

BelgoSuisse said:

People usually don't stack with TPTK in multi-way pots. They do heads-up. so less villains but willing to stack a larger range of hands usually means better implied odds, imo.

Click to expand...

This and also easier to win a pot without flopping a set.

I'm only playing 77 for set value about 98 percent of the time. My thinking is if I raise to 4xBB I'm either winning the blinds, I get repopped and have to let it go, or I'm playing HU oop and likely to be an underdog. If I get repopped for 6BB I'm OK with it. Maybe 2.5BB would be better?

I don't generally base my raises based on the strength of my hand but usually on position and reads of the table. I would sometimes limp AK here, sometimes minraise or sometimes raise much bigger to get it heads up. But I don't mind getting popped with AK because I'm usually cool with stacking off with it.

baudib1 said:

I'm only playing 77 for set value about 98 percent of the time. My thinking is if I raise to 4xBB I'm either winning the blinds, I get repopped and have to let it go, or I'm playing HU oop and likely to be an underdog. If I get repopped for 6BB I'm OK with it. Maybe 2.5BB would be better?

I don't generally base my raises based on the strength of my hand but usually on position and reads of the table. I would sometimes limp AK here, sometimes minraise or sometimes raise much bigger to get it heads up. But I don't mind getting popped with AK because I'm usually cool with stacking off with it.

Click to expand...

The problem with this is that if you just do sorta what you feel like you're likely not going to mix it up very well. People have databases on you and will begin to see tendencies. Even if once in a while you do the opposite, if they can get a general tendency it begins to get a lot easier to play against you.

Point taken, thanks.

You are missing out on a lot of value if you are playing middle pairs 98% for sets, you can haul in a lot of small pots with these and it helps balance your play post flop. You always min raise these hands or do you usually limp if you do not? I cant imagine you raise with the intention of throwing it in if you miss your set?

Also, 3 bet % is crucial here if you are worried about the re-pop. I realize you are EP here so unless the table has a general high/low it works but if someone with a low 3bet pops you here, you typically will still be getting odds to set mine(and in this case thats all id do) since they will likely stack. People with higher 3bet % obviously you dont want to be raising hands like these as much unless you can 4 bet light since its more likely they will repop and less likely you get paid off.

Well, no, if I get to the flop HU I am looking to take it down. The problem I find in EP is getting the right bet size. If I make the raise too big I am only getting action from a range that is crushing 77. If I raise 4x and get multiple callers, I am forced (I think) to peel a lot of iffy flops.

I.E. Raise to 4xBB, CO calls and BTN calls. BB gets odds to call a fairly wide range. The flop comes 9 6 4 two flush and the BB leads out for 1/3 pot size bet.