$600 NLHE Full Ring: Live 2/5 facing heat from LAG, bluff catch or fold?

Table is interesting mix of gamblers, LAGish players, a TAG / nit, a rec, and a wild card. Probably 80% of pots are raised but there's still a lot of limp / calling for 2/5. I know at least one of these guys regularly plays 5/10.

Hero ($600 effective) should be viewed as a nit as well, we recognize 3 Vs who may know I'm not as tight as my stats tonight which I'd estimate as about 12/8/3. I'm not interested in limping along with the crowd and I've been mostly card dead.

V is middle aged LAGish guy (50/20/5 ish) who likes to see flops and has bluffs. When Hero sat he had about $1000, until this hand with the wild card player. V opens $30 from the SB, wild card limp / 3 bets to $125. Only V calls. Flop 9T4r, V x, WC $125, call. Turn 3x, V x, WC $125, V call. River Jx no flush. V all in, WC insta-call. V shows QJhh, WC shows KQo. V hit the ATM and re-bought $1000.

OTTH: V limps UTG, WC limps MP, TAG limps CO, Hero raises to $30 from BU with T9ss. V calls, WC calls. Not interested in overlimping here because the BB is the 5/10 player who will likely squeeze very wide so it's raise or fold. Since I look nitty I figure it's a good spot to raise the BU. Obviously folding to any 3 bet.

Flop ($95): Kh9h4s
V x, WC x, Hero $65. Only V calls. Not loving this spot but at least we have position. Plan is to x turn eval river if we don't improve. Obviously double barreling a 9, not sure what to do with a T. V shouldn't have the gutter ball and we block KT so I guess we are betting that too.

Turn ($225): Td
V donk leads $125. Not a great spot. This sizing is especially scary as it seems "valuey". We can still improve to the boat if V called and hit a gutter but we are toast vs KT, K4, and 44. Pretty thin value range and we are probably near the middle of our range with two pair so we decide to defend.

River ($475): 3h
V jams all in and covers us. We should be toast against this line in general but we have played with this V before and know he has bluffs and gross overplays with 1 pair hands. His line is repping very thin to QJ with one heart that somehow floats a K high flop, 44, KTo that didn't raise pre, some weird flush draw with the Th that hit. I'm struggling to find his bluffs though. We have about $380 left and the pot is about $855 after rake. Against an unknown I think we have to let this go but can we bluff catch here against this LAGish guy with some spaz? Hero tanks for at least 2 minutes. V doesn't know what to do with himself. He seems uncomfortable, is breathing heavy, changing positions a lot, looking up then down then away. My gut is saying he has enough bluffs to look him up given these pot odds. We only need to be right less than 1 out of 3 times to break even but this run out is pretty gross. Let it go or look him up?

I am thinking that UTG may have entered a tilt state, but perhaps I am wrong. I have seen people who buy more chips after they lose all in one hand. And then they behave in a funny way, and make quick movements (they play fast in the hand).

The v1 LAG range could have a structure close to -7-8; + J-8; Q-8; Q-J; A-4; TO 5; + from its initial section, and then coming up with pockets from 2-2; 3-3; 4-4 (your monster) ... +
On the other hand we have V2 that could also have a similar structure: -6-7; 7-8; ... + Q-J; Q-K; A-K; - 5-5; 6-6; +.
In the flop your Kicker (T) protects you 62% of the time against lower values, so this is a good time to place a bet on value. With this you can neutralize the entire low range of these villains (3-3; 5-5; 6-6; 7-7; 8-8) in this section you are only below 4-4 with 3 combos and a combo of 9-9.
In the high range, we have a monster K-K (3c) and AA; Q-Q and J-J. Although honestly, with the characteristics you mention any of these villains would make a 3bet looking for maximum exploitation, especially if it has a color blocker.
They remain in the AK flop (3c); KQ (3c); KJ (3c); 9-9 (1c); 4-4 (1c) that are ahead of us.
Your hand blocks the A-T bluffs (2c); K-T (2c); Q-T (2c); J-T (2c) = 8c
But now we don't block the A-K A-Q combinations; A-J; K-Q; K-J; Q-J A-8; A-7; A-6; TO 5; A-4; A-3; Kx+ flush draw combinations.
The second best pair is also reduced: A-9 (2c); K-9 (2c); Q-9 (2c); J-9 (2c).
On the turn the Td appears and now there are 16 Q-J combinations that we do not block, this means that the villain can try to represent QJ in his range.
If we classify one of the villains as LAG, this individual can take the time to get you out of hand. So I think you made the right decision on the turn, since you have achieved double pairs and do not block the many bluffs that UTG has in its range.
In the river the color line is completed and you are committed to the well. The situation is hard, but you still do not block bluffs and now the amount of them have increased.
In your same line you lose with K-3; K-4, but K-4 we must reduce it since it has probably increased it in the flop.
If on the turn villain bet late with better doubles that is a situation that we are at risk in the river.
But I think that in your place, calling is a profitable option, against such rivals.
The defense on the turn was very important, and the decision you made on the river probably had a lot of influence considering how the villains played in the previous hands.
Apparently UTG was in a hurry or maybe he was angry at someone at the table.
One question: these movements in the hand the villain UTG made them quickly or did it take time to play during this hand? Maybe if UTG he played fast he probably is entered a state of tilt.
Greetings.

Thanks for the response. Interesting take. I honestly expected most responses to be "fold turn", "fold river", "what are his bluffs? everything got there".

Also to the timing point. I didn't consciously consider this in real time but thinking back, this may have been part of my gut feel. I believe the subconscious mind processes a lot more information than we actively think about. There was some correlation here over the session with timing tells. When he shoved the river with 1 pair and lost to the straight he acted very quickly. This hand when he called flop it was normal speed. When he bet turn and shoved river it was again more quickly. He may have been trying to look stronger by acting quickly when he really wanted folds. He also made quads once and he bet them but he was more deliberate that hand and did not go all in. The V paid him off since he had been betting so light earlier but the pattern of strength / sizing / timing tells continued. I'm going to further analyse this if I see him again next week.

Its always a bit weird, when people lead on a card, that basically changed nothing. Sure a gutshot got there, but if you had a strong hand like AA or AK, its not like, this turn card would scare you and slow you down. So if he did in fact improve, then why not check to you again and let you hang yourself?

For that reason this becomes very player and read dependent. What do we think about this guy? Is he bad enough to just lead out, because he improved, without even considering previous action, or what is the best way to get paid? He did limp, so this is certainly possible. However if we think, he is on some kind of tilt, or just a wild player capable of pulling random triggers, then this could also just be an airball bluff.

From a GTO standpoint, you do have some better hands to call down with, so maybe its ok to let this one go on the river. You can have a flush here, a straight, a set or even a better two pair. This cant be a mandatory call, but perhaps a good exploitative one with the right reads.

fundiver199 said:

Its always a bit weird, when people lead on a card, that basically changed nothing. Sure a gutshot got there, but if you had a strong hand like AA or AK, its not like, this turn card would scare you and slow you down. So if he did in fact improve, then why not check to you again and let you hang yourself?

For that reason this becomes very player and read dependent. What do we think about this guy? Is he bad enough to just lead out, because he improved, without even considering previous action, or what is the best way to get paid? He did limp, so this is certainly possible. However if we think, he is on some kind of tilt, or just a wild player capable of pulling random triggers, then this could also just be an airball bluff.

From a GTO standpoint, you do have some better hands to call down with, so maybe its ok to let this one go on the river. You can have a flush here, a straight, a set or even a better two pair. This cant be a mandatory call, but perhaps a good exploitative one with the right reads.

Click to expand...

Appreciate your opinion, thanks. It's hard to measure tilt, V was clearly upset losing his stack before the re-buy. His line was also strange, to all of the sudden lead that turn and jam river. I was thinking along those lines. I think I have to let go of all my one pair hands unless maybe I have the Ace of hearts and block some flushes. I think KT+ should fall into the defense frequency but in the moment I really felt like T9 was a fold, hence I would be bluff catching instead of value defending. I'm still fuzzy on how to calculate defense frequencies on flop vs turn vs river. I think it's 45% MDF pre flop, and I know it decreases on each street but before I start counting combos I'm not sure where to draw the line.

I learned later in the session that V was indeed tilting as just before I sat down he lost a big pot to the player to my right. Then the all in jam into the straight for the rest of his stack. So he probably went from about $2500+ to zero in about 40 mins. Wish I would have known that at the time.