$5 NLHE 6-max: Folding here... is this not exploitable?

V is most solid reg on this site at this level.

Just can't put him on too many bluffs... especially not any that continue on the turn. But there are so few value hands that do this. Unless he ocassionally flats with AA KK... ??? 55 is the only hand that makes sense.

The donk bet must be more for value, BB in this hand is a huge fish. Maybe I could find a fold on the flop. (?)

Winning Poker Network (Yatahay) - $0.05 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (CO): 109.6 BB
BTN: 100 BB (VPIP: 23.30, PFR: 19.89, 3Bet Preflop: 7.41, Hands: 179)
SB: 163.8 BB (VPIP: 21.91, PFR: 18.61, 3Bet Preflop: 9.03, Hands: 1,517)
BB: 104.8 BB (VPIP: 71.43, PFR: 14.29, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 7)
UTG: 61.6 BB (VPIP: 11.11, PFR: 2.78, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 36)

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has A♥ Q♠

fold, Hero raises to 2.8 BB, fold, SB calls 2.4 BB, BB calls 1.8 BB

Flop: (8.4 BB, 3 players) 5♥ Q♣ 4♦
SB bets 6.2 BB, fold, Hero calls 6.2 BB

Turn: (20.8 BB, 2 players) 5♣
SB bets 15.6 BB, fold

SB wins 19.8 BB

i think you can just raise on the flop and fold to 3bet. Reg could have led the flop with weak hands like A5s,A4s,76s, or 86s. As played I think your hand is strong enough to call turn bet and re evaluate river.

teh_colonel_saigon said:

V is most solid reg on this site at this level.

Just can't put him on too many bluffs... especially not any that continue on the turn. But there are so few value hands that do this. Unless he ocassionally flats with AA KK... ??? 55 is the only hand that makes sense.

The donk bet must be more for value, BB in this hand is a huge fish. Maybe I could find a fold on the flop. (?)

Winning Poker Network (Yatahay) - $0.05 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (CO): 109.6 BB
BTN: 100 BB (VPIP: 23.30, PFR: 19.89, 3Bet Preflop: 7.41, Hands: 179)
SB: 163.8 BB (VPIP: 21.91, PFR: 18.61, 3Bet Preflop: 9.03, Hands: 1,517)
BB: 104.8 BB (VPIP: 71.43, PFR: 14.29, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 7)
UTG: 61.6 BB (VPIP: 11.11, PFR: 2.78, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 36)

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has A♥ Q♠

fold, Hero raises to 2.8 BB, fold, SB calls 2.4 BB, BB calls 1.8 BB

Flop: (8.4 BB, 3 players) 5♥ Q♣ 4♦
SB bets 6.2 BB, fold, Hero calls 6.2 BB

Turn: (20.8 BB, 2 players) 5♣
SB bets 15.6 BB, fold

SB wins 19.8 BB

Click to expand...

He can have Qx, 76o, 32o, A3o, A2o, AA, KK, 55, 44, QQ, Q5s, Q4s, 54s. It's hard to gather info, but you only have 1 pair and he bet so much on the flop and then turn on the 5. He can have air on the flop since he feels that flop doesn't hit many ranges. You might be bluffed, but you put so little in the pot. The bet sizing makes me cautious though so I don't fault you for folding. Calling flop isn't bad, but you feel if he's capable of betting big with KQ or QJ then call.

You have a decent sample of hands to take seriously the statistics of this villain. Above 1000 hands, the samples gain a little more relevance, to take a closer look at the available parameters.
In this case, we face a villain who participates in approximately one of every five hands played at the table. This means that we can remove it with certainty, from a Nit player tag. An average of 20% preflop gameplay can include premium combinations, low pp and suitable connectors. So its range may be wider than you think.
Now this villain is in a blind position, so we must expect a minimum defense of his rank 20% of the time, from that position. So the first thing we should deny said player is the implied odds. That is, the chances that his rank will make connections with the board on the flop. To do this, we should make a larger opening from co. In addition our hand is not good enough, to induce increases from preflop. The idea of ​​a small opening with more than 2 active positions behind (for example 2.3bb; 2.5bb; 2.8bb) is to induce increases and take advantage of strong ranges, to create large boats from proflop. But this hand is not the best combination you can receive, so it is necessary to make at least one standard line (3bb opening), in these cases.
I agree to make an increase in the flop to the sb bet. This villain is probably playing exploitative and takes advantage of his statistics perfectly. So we must bother your entire structure now.
According to what has been played, the turn is a rather undesirable situation, but I think we should defend our line. Obviously we are entering an area of ​​greater risk (which is why I consider an increase in the flop more appropriate) but at that point we can do what we did not do in the flop, or we can make a call. If we make an increase in this place, we are clearly eliminating all our bluffs and now we represent a direct blockade with the strongest part of our range. (If our opening had been larger in preflop, this movement would achieve a higher fold equity, in this type of villains).
According to the investment involved with the call on the turn, maybe we can continue towards the river. Although our rank is clearly dominated, from the lines of attack proposed by the villain.
Greetings.

Semi grunch. This seems very exploitable to me. Especially if this is the best player at this level. If he's that solid he should haven't too much 5x. His value range is super narrow with slow played QQ+ (maybe to keep fish in?), 44, and 55. We block QQ and some AA. We are close to the top of our range. I don't think we can fold yet vs these stats. This guy seems quite wide, aggressive, and competent. He knows that you likely don't have much 5x in your raising range and if he has any evidence of you over folding it's a great run out to apply pressure. I think this guy can have QJ+, 67s (especially clubs), at the least along with some stronger hands and likely a few more bluffs and semi bluffs. Not sure how you can be so confident in folding here with two pair and a Ace kicker.

5 is good for you, definitely should call it one more time. Especially if villain is reg, villain probably doesn't have 65, 54 type of hands on SB. Villain can have only 3 combos of 44 that beat you, that's not enough to make you fold top pair top kicker.