Originally Posted by Aces2w1n
how do we work out how much equity we need?
You have put in $0.77 and need to put in $4.52 more (assuming we shove here instead of call--which is probably best as we still have a fraction of fold equity and we remove all chances of getting bluffed off the hand post-flop). Assuming they call, the pot will be $10.60 (minus rake of $0.43 -- calling it $10.17 would give you better accuracy).
You are risking $4.52 to win $10.60. That means you need 4.52/10.60, which is 42.6% (44.4% if you account for rake).
Against a complete 10% range, you might have that. But, that's probably not his 5-bet-shove calling range. That's probably tighter, and it would be hard to really be much ahead of it. At best, you might just have break-even equity, but I suspect you'll constantly be wondering why you run into the top of someone's range in this spot (and that's because they aren't calling with the whole 10%). You're risking a LOT to just break even.
I would be very hesitant to draw strong conclusions with 22 hands. It isn't that hard to be dealt 2-3 premium hands in a 20 hand sample. This guy is probably loose, but we can't be positive he's a pre-flop maniac. I'd just fold here. I don't expect to ever be happy when the money all goes in here.