$25 NLHE Full Ring: Terrible bluff?

This is $30 NLHE

Villain is the same villain i just posted about where I had 99. His stats were slightly different now so 13/9, 3bets 9% and his fold to 3bet was 80% (only 4/5). AFq was 43. Stats over 423 hands

888 Poker - $0.30 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

MP: $31.61
MP+1: $40.87
CO: $27.89
BTN: $31.24
SB: $30.12
Hero (BB): $30.00
UTG: $79.29
UTG+1: $30.00
UTG+2: $62.86

SB posts SB $0.15, Hero posts BB $0.30

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.45) Hero has 3c 3d

fold, fold, fold, fold, MP+1 raises to $1.05, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to $3.30, MP+1 calls $2.25

Flop: ($6.75, 2 players) 8d Ac 5c
Hero bets $3.90, MP+1 raises to $9.00, Hero raises to $26.70

This was my thought process: I think this guy would 4bet AK so I disregarded that. I think if he had AQ or maybe AJ he would not raise, he would just call ,y cbet as AK is clearly a big part of my range and by raising he folds out all better (except 33 which bluffs off all his chips lol), so yea don't know why you would raise AQ/AJ here. So the only other thing he could have that are generally raising for value are 88/55, both of which I doubt he would call the 3bet with, maybe 88 but I think unlikely. So should I have just given up after he raised or is my reasoning sound? Or just fold preflop?

Call preflop, i really dont get why you are 3 betting.

As played against this player AK is certainly a massive part of his range, lots of nl$25 regs will show up with AK in spots like this, AQ/AJ will probably fold. Bet folding the flop is fine, but once he decided to go to war you are toast.

tenbob said:

Call preflop, i really dont get why you are 3 betting.

As played against this player AK is certainly a massive part of his range, lots of nl$25 regs will show up with AK in spots like this, AQ/AJ will probably fold. Bet folding the flop is fine, but once he decided to go to war you are toast.

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Is it profitable to set mine oop here though? I would have been more icnlined to fold than call. The reason I 3bet was his fold to 3bet was 80% so the majority of the time he will fold and if not can take it down with a cbet often. Yea guess I should have given up after it didn't work

since ranges are so strong, im probably just calling in the BB to set mine.

if opener was LP, id like the 3b.

i actually like what you say about your thought process- shows youre thinking and is good logic. however, here are the flaws with it...

1. you assume your opponent 4bs AK. i dont have a 4b stat to go by, but id say if hes opening 9% and folding to 3bs 80%, what hands is he just calling 3bs with if not setmining with pocket pairs or AK?

2. you assume your opponent wont set mine because its bad play. true, but this doesnt mean our opponent isnt bad and is doing it anyway.

3. i cant see a guy with stats like that EVER bluffing. like best case scenario here is he has KcQc somehow and is semibluffing the flop, which sucks for you because he still calls (and im pretty sure hes favourite). so even if he is raising with AQ/AJ here, i kinda cant see him ever folding them to a jam...

so ye in summary, youre making too many assumptions about your opponents imo. good that youre thinking but ye be careful. would very much like to know what villain had here (like i said, doubt hes ever bluffing so im curious as to what he called with). based on his stats i cant see it being a set or a bluff so id have to think it is in fact AK?

yea your spot on jchoop he had AK. And yea I think your right, I made too many assumptions about villain, I assumed he would 4bet AK even though I had nothing really to go by on this. Just kind of thought a high 3bet % would lend itself to a pretty high 4bet % and therefore he would 4bet AK.

So you thinks its profitable to set mine in the blinds vs a TAG like this when they are opening from anywhere other than CO or BTN?

js520 said:

yea your spot on jchoop he had AK. And yea I think your right, I made too many assumptions about villain, I assumed he would 4bet AK even though I had nothing really to go by on this. Just kind of thought a high 3bet % would lend itself to a pretty high 4bet % and therefore he would 4bet AK.

So you thinks its profitable to set mine in the blinds vs a TAG like this when they are opening from anywhere other than CO or BTN?

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Awwwww yeah jchoop ftw

Dnoo about FR games, but i think it's a pretty safe assumption that lots of reg nits/tags especially the multitablers 4bet AA and KK only, and flat 3bets with JJ QQ and AK. I guess big pots are scary without the nuts? Lol I dunno but yeah lots of the tight multitable regs just completely bitch out when it comes to 4 betting lol.

Again, no full ring pro, but it's going to be profitable to set mine 33 in blinds vs prett much any open I'd think- just Moreso when they open from EP because their range is way skewed towards big aces and big pocket pairs that you can stack when you flop your set. However ye when they're openin from LP, they prob open up to at least 25%, in which case ye you can 3b your small pairs as a semi bluff because getting a fold is nice too (especially when they'll flat QQ/JJ/AK like this bc they're scared of AA/KK pre, but will then happily stack flops like this all the times when you do flop a set

Also, and this will help you soooo much vs him in the future- player note.

"flat AK from EP to BB 3b"

(we should write from EP until we see otherwise, because it's he could likely 4b AK in BTN v blinds spots etc)

We also now know that if he 4bs, we should shove AA every time because he's always got at least QQ+ but probably even only KK+ and will therefore always call our shove and get coolered, as well as, if he 4bs us in the future we can do the impossible and fold KK pre and not get coolered for stacks when he rolls another KK or AA every single time (although vs this guy, my value 3b range would literally be AA only, and would just have a ****ton of small pp, sc and Ax bluffs)

Preflop is fine imo, I don't like setmining OOP here unless he is a really bad reg. I think a 13/9 who raises the flop here in a 3bet pot is probably never folding when you ship. I think you are probably overthinking his likely range a bit. I agree with your reasoning that it doesn't make much sense for him to show up with a big ace that often. However, just because we both agree on that does not mean that he thinks and plays that way just because he has the standard nit/tag multitabler stats.

What were your stats?

I am surprised that so many would even call pre-flop. With small pocket pair, you are basically playing a 2 outer from the start. You'll hit the set about 1:8 (12%). I would also factor in the possibility of a totally dry flop into which you could bet and get a fold or a call with you being very ahead because 2 cards to come and you already have a pair while your opponent is holding only over cards. Not sure the odds of a flop with no card >T, but we could figure it out.

This flop is why I tend to fold small pockets when faced with any raise pre-flop (maybe I am wrong so have at it). With the 3-bet pre, I would figure he is on a big pocket pair (and it does not have to be very big to beat yours) or AJ-AK. Pretty much all of those things have you beat, and I doubt he is going to fold to a raise post-flop after 3-betting pre, so the c-bet feels like a donation.