Really terrible spot. 500bb deep tbh I think I like flatting pre. When the BTN squeezes vs our UTG open, we really shouldn't have that much of a bluffing
range anyway. So when we do 4-bet, our hand is pretty much face-up. Only reason I see to 4-bet is if we have a lot of bluffs in our range, we have history, and he will peel light with position.
A lot of things can go pretty badly if we 4-bet unless we flop the nuts. The top of our range is pretty much one pair on non K or A high boards. Pretty easy to get bluffed since I don't think we'd be comfortable stacking KK/AA for 500bb readless. I think we should also note that he's not only flatting most PP in this spot but also AA almost everytime if he's decent.
I like flatting because it keeps his range wider and lets him value bet worse post. If he has AA, then we're still going to lose money. But we get value from QQ/JJ/whatever random shit he might have tried to make a move with pre. And if CO flats, I don't really mind since he is 90bb deep. BTN should not be bluffing without strong equity vs our 3-bet calling range and CO's overcall.
I think 4-betting just lets him play perfectly against us. He can flat AA in position, setmine us, bluff us off the best hand, and fold his really junky hands that he spazzed out with pre. We'll always be capped to overpairs, while he can have anything really. I'm pretty sure having no 4-betting range in this spot might not be the most optimal play, but I think I prefer it.
Turn is never a check/shove. It's either x/fold, or you x/call to call off river on a blank or x/fold. He's either turning JJ-QQ or some PP into a bluff/spazzing out with air or has a set/AA. If he's bluffing, we want to let him keep bluffing. Shoving only folds out his bluffs and lets him continue with sets/AA. If you decide to x/jam turn, you should really x/c turn and almost all rivers instead. We lose the same amount from his sets/AA and make some money off his spaz bluffs.
I prefer 35% c-bet on flop. QQ will still peel a street, and we still have AA in our range so I don't think his bluff-raising frequency will be too high. As played, I probably just fold turn. If he's bluffing, good for him. We're going to be beat a good amount of times here, and I wouldn't want to stack off 500bb deep readless hoping he's running a bluff.
Interesting hand. I'd like to know what he had. I was actually in a similar spot where I had AA in a 4-bet pot ~300bb deep, and this guy kept firing off after I checked on Kxx. I folded, thinking he wouldn't bluff since I have AA/AK/KK in my range. Turned up with 1010 for a spaz bluff. I wonder if that was just a bad line by me or just a retarded bluff by him lol. Probably both. This was like 50NL zone almost a year ago.