re: Poker & $25 NLHE 6-max: JJ vs. WTF backraise by limper
Originally Posted by dj11
Assuming OP stack sizes, and I'm the big stack in this pot......(which really doesn't mean anything).
I could shove here, but probably wouldn't (check/float), and I'd end up losing my stack when I called the big bet KK makes. But that doesn't change the dynamics at work in the original problem.
In one case, I/you rely on luck to salvage anything out of this hand (op lucky). It disturbs me so many are of the 'Damn the torpedoes, full speed ahead' mentality.
In another case I use what control I have to move to a new decision point in the hand without too much damage having already being inflicted. Again, I'll choose to exert what control I can.
Most all of us will start a JJ hand intending to see the flop. Of course we re-evaluate when the betting gets to us. So if by the time the betting gets to me it has already been raise and reraised, I could easily drop JJ in the muck.
WV, JJ ain't AA ! Your argument suggests you want to convince me it is.....
Not at all. My argument is simply that if you ever find yourself OOP with JJ and an SPR under 2, you've likely done something VERY wrong assuming the stacks are 100bb effective.
I've said since the beginning of this thread that I think it's a shove based on what my experience tells
me a back raiser's range is likely to be. Others have said that their experience is totally different and that they would fold. I'm fine with either line of thinking and I think either is defensible.
If you think calling the backraise to $5.50 is defensible please explain how you plan to play it postflop with slightly more than a PSB left behind on the 7 of 8 times you don't hit your set.
Let's do some math.
our equity against a backraiser's range in my estimation:
77+, AKs, AKo: 45.172%
So if we shove and he calls with that entire range our Ev= +$5.42
If we give him a much tighter range as those in the folding camp have said:
So if we shove and he calls with that range our Ev= -$4.56 (so we should fold against this range)
Now let's look at 2 scenarios if we flat the backraise
Calling Scenario 1: UTG calls and we see a flop 3 ways. I'll give them both my backraiser's range (77+, AKs, AKo). We'll fold on any flop that contains an overcard (unless we hit our set) and stack on all others. Both players will always call postflop.
So given the above we're folding 51.82% of the time (at least 1 overcard flops and we don't hit a set).
Since we stack and get called in both spots on all other remaining flops we get 48.18% of flops(35% equity * $74 pot) - $19.50 (our remaining stack) = -$7.02
Our Ev for calling against 2 players is -$7.02 (almost $2.50 worse than shoving vs the tight range)
Calling Scenario 2: If we call and the UTG player folds. Assuming same range as above and the the CO never folds when we shove and always shoves when we check.
We're still folding about 52% of the time when an overcard flops.
The rest is 48.18% (54.828%* $50 pot) - $19.50= -$6.29 or -$1.73 worse than shoving vs the tight range.
When I rerun these scenarios vs the tight range (QQ+/AK) for 1 caller and the loose range for the other the Ev is much worse:
-$10.02 for both callers (one tight and one loose range)
-$10.78 for a single caller with tight range
Cliffs: Calling is BAD.