$25 NLHE 6-max: JJ vs. WTF backraise by limper

[Pascal-lf]

I would never ever call with JJ in this spot, or really any hand...but esp. TT-QQ type hands, it's just never going to work out OOP.


But how do you figure it's WA/WB preflop?

Because he shows up with a lot of weak PPs and a few big ones, but rarely AK/AQ?

 

[WVHillbilly]

With JJ, yes! It's a WAWB situation, and I'd prefer to exert some control, if possible. It's possible UTG reraises, and I'd probably still follow, but if I can exert any control, again, I will try.

Seems to me that in a 6 max game, most folks sort of make up their minds fast on how far they will take each situation. In this situation I'd feel good shoving postflop without overcards flopping, or, like in this case I flop big.

But like Chuck says, he feels monsters lurk in the muddy waters, and I too fear them. So I vote for control, if possible.


But then I'm not very good at ring.........

And yes, I do muck JJ to over active boards every now and then. Even after I have raised to open the pot. That's what my stats on players tell me to do. Damn, they been right a whole bunch.

So
CO raises to $5.55, DJ11 calls $5.55, UTG calls $5.55

Flop ($16.90)
Tc 3h 2d, DJ11 ????
or

Qh 7h 5d, DJ11 ???

or

Any flop that doesn't make a set, DJ11 ???

I mean we can't set mine with a SPR of 1. So you have to fold to the 3bet or shove. Calling is burning money.

 

[dj11]

So
CO raises to $5.55, DJ11 calls $5.55, UTG calls $5.55

Flop ($16.90)
Tc 3h 2d, DJ11 ????
or

Qh 7h 5d, DJ11 ???

or

Any flop that doesn't make a set, DJ11 ???

I mean we can't set mine with a SPR of 1. So you have to fold to the 3bet or shove. Calling is burning money.

Assuming OP stack sizes, and I'm the big stack in this pot......(which really doesn't mean anything).

I could shove here, but probably wouldn't (check/float), and I'd end up losing my stack when I called the big bet KK makes. But that doesn't change the dynamics at work in the original problem.

In one case, I/you rely on luck to salvage anything out of this hand (op lucky). It disturbs me so many are of the 'Damn the torpedoes, full speed ahead' mentality.
In another case I use what control I have to move to a new decision point in the hand without too much damage having already being inflicted. Again, I'll choose to exert what control I can.

Most all of us will start a JJ hand intending to see the flop. Of course we re-evaluate when the betting gets to us. So if by the time the betting gets to me it has already been raised and reraised, I could easily drop JJ in the muck.

WV, JJ ain't AA ! Your argument suggests you want to convince me it is.....

 

[baudib1]

no, you need to assess your equity against villain's range and act appropriately. we can debate the merits of shoving or folding and argue over what villain's range in these spots is (frankly pot odds + equity pretty much demands a call here) but there is absolutely no way that flatting this backraise can ever be good. Flatting 3-bets OOP is never a good idea with any hand unless you are like 200 BBS deep.

 

[dj11]

no, you need to assess your equity against villain's range and act appropriately. we can debate the merits of shoving or folding and argue over what villain's range in these spots is (frankly pot odds + equity pretty much demands a call here) but there is absolutely no way that flatting this backraise can ever be good. Flatting 3-bets OOP is never a good idea with any hand unless you are like 200 BBS deep.

I am still new to ring, and almost break even, so excuse me for trying to think these things thru. I've spent most of my online poker career in tourney play.

2 terms ITT are new to me

SPR

backraise

someone please define them for me?

 

[Pascal-lf]

no, you need to assess your equity against villain's range and act appropriately. we can debate the merits of shoving or folding and argue over what villain's range in these spots is (frankly pot odds + equity pretty much demands a call here) but there is absolutely no way that flatting this backraise can ever be good. Flatting 3-bets OOP is never a good idea with any hand unless you are like 200 BBS deep.

Agree.

 

[baudib1]

SPR = stack to pot ratio. If you flat this raise in this hand then SPRs are essentially 1-1, as WV said. That means you are basically married to this pot. The time to commit or get out is preflop.

backraise = is when a player has an opportunity to raise but does not do so and simply limps or cold calls a raise...when he is faced with another race he 3-bet/4-bets.

 

[cjatud2012]

I'd be less inclined to believe he's got a monster after limping behind another limper. If he were the initial limper I think that shows a lot more strength. I think it's unfortunately that your hit the top of his range here.

However I definitely have no experience with 25NL cash games, so I could be completely wrong.

 

[dj11]

Villain seems like a standard microtag, maybe a tad nitty through 40 hands I have on him. Nothing else remarkable about him. Relevant game flow: If anyone had been out of line this session it was me, and the hand immediate to this I 3-bet his button open with KK and he folded.

If he had simply limped UTG and done this I would fold pretty damn quickly.

Your definition of microtag?

So, villain here has to have noticed you being a 'little out of line' , yes/no? And if he did, wouldn't he be just silly ecstatic about the impending trap? You leaped into it! You can not use the excuse that you hit as a defense.

What did you think his range was the moment before you shoved?

 

[WVHillbilly]

Assuming OP stack sizes, and I'm the big stack in this pot......(which really doesn't mean anything).

I could shove here, but probably wouldn't (check/float), and I'd end up losing my stack when I called the big bet KK makes. But that doesn't change the dynamics at work in the original problem.

In one case, I/you rely on luck to salvage anything out of this hand (op lucky). It disturbs me so many are of the 'Damn the torpedoes, full speed ahead' mentality.
In another case I use what control I have to move to a new decision point in the hand without too much damage having already being inflicted. Again, I'll choose to exert what control I can.

Most all of us will start a JJ hand intending to see the flop. Of course we re-evaluate when the betting gets to us. So if by the time the betting gets to me it has already been raise and reraised, I could easily drop JJ in the muck.

WV, JJ ain't AA ! Your argument suggests you want to convince me it is.....

Not at all. My argument is simply that if you ever find yourself OOP with JJ and an SPR under 2, you've likely done something VERY wrong assuming the stacks are 100bb effective.

I've said since the beginning of this thread that I think it's a shove based on what my experience tells me a back raiser's range is likely to be. Others have said that their experience is totally different and that they would fold. I'm fine with either line of thinking and I think either is defensible.

If you think calling the backraise to $5.50 is defensible please explain how you plan to play it postflop with slightly more than a PSB left behind on the 7 of 8 times you don't hit your set.

Let's do some math.

our equity against a backraiser's range in my estimation:
JJ: 54.828%
77+, AKs, AKo: 45.172%
So if we shove and he calls with that entire range our Ev= +$5.42


If we give him a much tighter range as those in the folding camp have said:
JJ: 36.6%
QQ+/AKs,AKo: 63.4%
So if we shove and he calls with that range our Ev= -$4.56 (so we should fold against this range)



Now let's look at 2 scenarios if we flat the backraise

Calling Scenario 1: UTG calls and we see a flop 3 ways. I'll give them both my backraiser's range (77+, AKs, AKo). We'll fold on any flop that contains an overcard (unless we hit our set) and stack on all others. Both players will always call postflop.

So given the above we're folding 51.82% of the time (at least 1 overcard flops and we don't hit a set).

Since we stack and get called in both spots on all other remaining flops we get 48.18% of flops(35% equity * $74 pot) - $19.50 (our remaining stack) = -$7.02

Our Ev for calling against 2 players is -$7.02 (almost $2.50 worse than shoving vs the tight range)



Calling Scenario 2: If we call and the UTG player folds. Assuming same range as above and the the CO never folds when we shove and always shoves when we check.

We're still folding about 52% of the time when an overcard flops.

The rest is 48.18% (54.828%* $50 pot) - $19.50= -$6.29 or -$1.73 worse than shoving vs the tight range.


When I rerun these scenarios vs the tight range (QQ+/AK) for 1 caller and the loose range for the other the Ev is much worse:

-$10.02 for both callers (one tight and one loose range)
-$10.78 for a single caller with tight range

Cliffs: Calling is BAD.

 

[dj11]

So in essence, you're saying with the SPR under 2, I am committed?

 

[baudib1]

Your definition of microtag?

So, villain here has to have noticed you being a 'little out of line' , yes/no? And if he did, wouldn't he be just silly ecstatic about the impending trap? You leaped into it! You can not use the excuse that you hit as a defense.

What did you think his range was the moment before you shoved?

A microtag is someone who plays ABC poker like he's been told to without really knowing why for the most part.

The problem is he can't expect me to be getting out of line from the SB. I'm folding probably 80-90%+ of the time depending on the table dynamics and only raising like 5-10% of the time here.

My thought process was that my actual hand strength is very high as opposed to what he *thinks* my range is (he thinks I am very aggro/loose, which may have been the case but as I said, I wouldn't be pulling a move in the SB). So I put him on a range that didn't feel compelled to raise behind a limper IP but that he feels is good against my perceived range.

So something along the lines of 88-JJ, AQ-AK, with a heavy emphasis on AK as I see a lot of players pulling moves like this with AK in my live game experience.

 

[Pascal-lf]

VS a 56/31/3.2 with 19% 3bet over a very large sample size:

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $0.10(BB) Replayer
SB ($10.24)
Hero ($17.57)
UTG ($16.72)
CO ($11.93)
BTN ($15.76)

Dealt to Hero Q:club: Q:spade:

fold, CO calls $0.10, BTN raises to $0.40, fold, Hero raises to $1.35, CO raises to $11.93 (AI), fold, Hero calls $10.58

FLOP ($24.31) 6:club: 9:club: 4:heart:

TURN ($24.31) 6:club: 9:club: 4:heart: 4:spade:

RIVER ($24.31) 6:club: 9:club: 4:heart: 4:spade: 3:diamond:

CO shows J:spade: J:heart:
(Pre 18%, Flop 7.6%, Turn 4.5%)

Hero shows Q:club: Q:spade:
(Pre 82%, Flop 92.4%, Turn 95.5%)

Hero wins $22.69


He was tarping for value, epic backfire

 

[forsakenone]

but he had KK

you are not suppose to say what he had, i was going for AA up until i saw this post, and i would suggest you to fold.

 

[vanquish]

i became retarded after reading this thread

 

[dj11]

i became retarded after reading this thread

I hope the hop wasn't painful.