$20 NLHE 6-max: Is AK ever good on this river?

mbrenneman0 · Jan 18, 2019

https://play.globalpoker.com/gp/10/hand/5c4112d4aa4b05303f4b6311

On Global

Hero has $26.67 UTG with

Hero raises to 0.60
Folds to villain who has hero covered
Villain calls from BTN
Blinds fold

Flop ($1.5):

Hero bets 0.7
Villain calls

Turn ($2.9):

Hero bets 1.3
Villain calls

River ($5.5):

Hero checks
Villain bets 2.75

Hero ???

Im thinking hero loses to any Q and plenty of 2 pair in villains range. I dont think theres any AJ in villains range, i think villain checks back AT unless he turns it into a bluff... its hard to see what bluffs villain has here.

Figaroo2 · Jan 18, 2019

Yeah I think with 4 to a straight out there you can fold here especially to a sizing which makes it look like he doesn't mind getting a call.
My only concern is that we are chopping but he may well have raised that hand preflop.
I would have called there on the button with a lot of broadway combos most of which are straights and 2 pair on that runout.
Small point, I'd have bet 3/4 pot on this particular flop for value v the calling range.

braveslice · Jan 18, 2019

Do we have any information about villain? If not are we playing mostly against regs or fish?

ps. For some reason I don't like CB =) I have to look that a bit.

Alucard · Jan 18, 2019

I find the turn bet small tbh.
Also bluff catching here would be very unprofitable imo.

braveslice · Jan 18, 2019

Right, gto+ say that no CB is wrong, 75% bet, but what was surprise turn was 99.9% check. Further analyzing the hand in gto environment is too difficult because of 0.1% betting range. However, the feeling I got for not CB might come from the idea that the flop is cold and BU range somewhat polarized we can’t go for 3 streets for value. CB is mostly right, because flop is asking an empty CB like IPlay use to say (i think IPlay, correct if wrong).

If we bet turn but can’t really bet river and we must fold to any bet otr might be the reason why gto likes check on the turn, but this is ‘hardcore-noob’ speculation.

So to recap the basic line suggested here by gto+ is bet-check-check, my idea was check-bet-bet and given the run out check-bet-check. Also I agree with Alu that if we are going to bet turn and fold river, we definitely should bet larger ott. I mean for damage reduction for turn&river maybe even close to pot size bet?!?

mbrenneman0 · Jan 18, 2019

Figaroo2 said:
Yeah I think with 4 to a straight out there you can fold here especially to a sizing which makes it look like he doesn't mind getting a call.
My only concern is that we are chopping but he may well have raised that hand preflop.
I would have called there on the button with a lot of broadway combos most of which are straights and 2 pair on that runout.
Small point, I'd have bet 3/4 pot on this particular flop for value v the calling range.

What do you suppose the effect on villains range if any is by sizing up the flop? Finding large sizings on dry flops is probably a leak of mine, but im not sure when the right time is. Im worried about splitting my range by betting weaker hands with a smaller sizing. Would you go for the same 3/4 size on the turn?

braveslice said:
Do we have any information about villain? If not are we playing mostly against regs or fish?

ps. For some reason I don't like CB =) I have to look that a bit.

Its a good mix of decent regs and fish. This guy strikes me as a decent capable reg, but no info to note. Not a reliable read in this case though.

Id rather check some of my weaker kings on the flop

Ill respond to your longer post on my next break at work

Alucard said:
I find the turn bet small tbh.
Also bluff catching here would be very unprofitable imo.

Why would you size up thd turn bet?

John A · Jan 18, 2019

braveslice said:
Right, gto+ say that no CB is wrong, 75% bet, but what was surprise turn was 99.9% check. Further analyzing the hand in gto environment is too difficult because of 0.1% betting range. However, the feeling I got for not CB might come from the idea that the flop is cold and BU range somewhat polarized we can’t go for 3 streets for value. CB is mostly right, because flop is asking an empty CB like IPlay use to say (i think IPlay, correct if wrong).

If we bet turn but can’t really bet river and we must fold to any bet otr might be the reason why gto likes check on the turn, but this is ‘hardcore-noob’ speculation.

So to recap the basic line suggested here by gto+ is bet-check-check, my idea was check-bet-bet and given the run out check-bet-check. Also I agree with Alu that if we are going to bet turn and fold river, we definitely should bet larger ott. I mean for damage reduction for turn&river maybe even close to pot size bet?!?

http://pokerzion.com/gto-poker-profitable-micro-small-stakes/

John A · Jan 18, 2019

Hate the small bet sizing that's being advocated by current bad strategy on poker training sites. There's spots for it, but you're losing too much value against a general population of players that call too much, and make bad folds.

Bet-Bet-check/fold
If you have some history with opponent - Check flop half the time - bet - check/fold.
Bet - Check isn't a bad line either sometimes.

Figaroo2 · Jan 18, 2019

Re the flop sizing. I think of it this way;
With TPTK I'm usually looking for 2 streets of value from worst hands and the best street to obtain some value from weaker hands is usually the flop.
Am I likely ahead of villains range= Yes, ergo I should be putting money into the pot for value, so I'm always c-betting this flop.
Checking the flop just increases the chances of another overcard coming to the villains range of paired hands and less chance of obtaining value from them.

Are all worse Kx 9x and other pairs like TT 88 going to call at least once = yes
All decent players are calling at least once in position with 2nd pair to make sure you aren't just a one and done merchant with Ax thats whiffed.
If they are calling half pot are they likely to also call 3/4 = yes so make the bet bigger.
The turn is a good card for the villains' range so I don't mind check/calling the turn, if he's a weak player though I'm still betting for value on the turn. weaker players can have hands like a suited K4 here and call down all the way.
There is no need to balance your play unless you have thousands of hands with good players, just go for max value and ignore the gto bshit.
Brave you are losing the plot man.

cs_rlewis · Jan 18, 2019

Yeah 4 card straight on the board you are rarely good here.
I would fold unless villain bet super small

braveslice · Jan 18, 2019

I'm a bit confused the criticism. Using gto tools I came to one of the answer John gave and this answer is better than my original line in any case. Not using tools to learn just because its too popular is somewhat weird attitude, also telling others who try to learn not to is even more concerning.

Alucard · Jan 18, 2019

braveslice said:
I'm a bit confused the criticism. Using gto tools I came to one of the answer John gave and this answer is better than my original line in any case. Not using tools to learn just because its too popular is somewhat weird attitude, also telling others who try to learn not to is even more concerning.

I think that we can disregard gto play heavily at small stakes & play exploitable. That's what both fig & john are trying to tell I think.
Since people don't play balanced, playing gto can be -ev. Even in upswing which is heavy gto, it's adviced to play exploitative in these spots

braveslice · Jan 18, 2019

yes and the idea missed here is that gto tool automates a lot of hard range work. Playing gto is totally different than analysing the play using gto tool - that is quite basic to anyone who has done any work with those tools. Also I bet you 2 dollars that Fig did not even read what I wrote.

Sidetracked · Jan 18, 2019

As played, the river is a fold. I like a bigger bet on the flop. About 3/4 pot will still get value from a lot of worse hands.

John A · Jan 18, 2019

braveslice said:
I'm a bit confused the criticism. Using gto tools I came to one of the answer John gave and this answer is better than my original line in any case. Not using tools to learn just because its too popular is somewhat weird attitude, also telling others who try to learn not to is even more concerning.

Who said not to learn GTO strategy?

mbrenneman0 · Jan 18, 2019

John A said:
Who said not to learn GTO strategy?

John, I think youre misunderstanding braveslice. I think brave might not be using the right words to explain his point. I think what he is saying is that solvers arent just for GTO. you can plug in an opponents strategy and find the most optimal (exploitative) strategy against that opponents strategy. Have you ever used GTO+ John? the software has come a long way in the past year and its becoming a truly powerful analysis tool not just for GTO solutions. Probably one of the best programs you can get for under $100 other than your standard tracking and equity calculator softwares. I think the name of the software is the software's biggest downfall because people see the name and assume its only for GTO analysis.

of course, braveslice saying that what he got must be right is very difficult because he may not be plugging in the same ranges for hero or villain or the same villain strategies, so without knowing braveslices assumptions used in his solution its impossible to know whether its right. you can come up with very theoretically sound solutions, but if your assumptions are wrong, then the solution may be wrong too. Making the right assumptions can be very hard for a hand reviewer to do without knowing the dynamic of the stakes and site and without knowing hero's own strategy already, which is why when I review someone's hand in depth, I try to make it a point to explain the assumptions I'm making about the villains ranges when explaining my analysis. One of the hardest things about using GTO+ in my opinion is making sense of the results. Is one thing to look at the results and say "okay this is what im supposed to do in this situation against this opponent" but without also analyzing WHY, it wont do you any good at the tables.

mbrenneman0 · Jan 18, 2019

Figaroo2 said:
Re the flop sizing. I think of it this way;
With TPTK I'm usually looking for 2 streets of value from worst hands and the best street to obtain some value from weaker hands is usually the flop.
Am I likely ahead of villains range= Yes, ergo I should be putting money into the pot for value, so I'm always c-betting this flop.
Checking the flop just increases the chances of another overcard coming to the villains range of paired hands and less chance of obtaining value from them.

Are all worse Kx 9x and other pairs like TT 88 going to call at least once = yes
All decent players are calling at least once in position with 2nd pair to make sure you aren't just a one and done merchant with Ax thats whiffed.
If they are calling half pot are they likely to also call 3/4 = yes so make the bet bigger.
The turn is a good card for the villains' range so I don't mind check/calling the turn, if he's a weak player though I'm still betting for value on the turn. weaker players can have hands like a suited K4 here and call down all the way.
There is no need to balance your play unless you have thousands of hands with good players, just go for max value and ignore the gto bshit.
Brave you are losing the plot man.

Interesting thoughts.

What would you do with a hand like KJs in this flop? would you bet bet check or would you go more for a check bet bet line? (based on the flop, not necessarily this turn and river)

one of the reasons I'm asking about this is because I'm finding myself in situations too often where I feel the need to fold. Trying to get to the bottom of it is difficult without a tracker. I posted this hand to help make sure I'm not over-folding. I can vaguely see an argument for calling if villain is turning all of his 1 pair hands into bluffs on the river and checking back the lower end of his two pair hands for showdown. but the fact that everyone is unanimous that this is a clear fold helps me feel a bit more reassured that im not just a nit in this spot.

I think the problem is that Im showing up with weak ranges in a lot of spots and I'm getting exploited for it, and I think it has a lot to do with my C-betting strategy. I think some percentage of the players I'm playing against are cognizant enough to recognize that if I bet all of my top pair in this spot then they can just punish me when i check here with no top pair in my range. I also think theyre cognizant enough to recognize bet sizing tells as well. considering its a site without any available HUD, people are going to be paying much closer attention to some of the things that HUDs dont account for, like bet sizing. Whenever I note a piece of information on another player, I note the bet sizing as well in case a pattern emerges, and Im sure Im not the only one doing this.

rgp007 · Jan 18, 2019

Bet more (70%-80%) on the flop and turn will depend on infos vs stats

John A · Jan 18, 2019

mbrenneman0 said:
John, I think youre misunderstanding braveslice. I think brave might not be using the right words to explain his point. I think what he is saying is that solvers arent just for GTO. you can plug in an opponents strategy and find the most optimal (exploitative) strategy against that opponents strategy. Have you ever used GTO+ John? the software has come a long way in the past year and its becoming a truly powerful analysis tool not just for GTO solutions. Probably one of the best programs you can get for under $100 other than your standard tracking and equity calculator softwares. I think the name of the software is the software's biggest downfall because people see the name and assume its only for GTO analysis.

of course, braveslice saying that what he got must be right is very difficult because he may not be plugging in the same ranges for hero or villain or the same villain strategies, so without knowing braveslices assumptions used in his solution its impossible to know whether its right. you can come up with very theoretically sound solutions, but if your assumptions are wrong, then the solution may be wrong too. Making the right assumptions can be very hard for a hand reviewer to do without knowing the dynamic of the stakes and site and without knowing hero's own strategy already, which is why when I review someone's hand in depth, I try to make it a point to explain the assumptions I'm making about the villains ranges when explaining my analysis. One of the hardest things about using GTO+ in my opinion is making sense of the results. Is one thing to look at the results and say "okay this is what im supposed to do in this situation against this opponent" but without also analyzing WHY, it wont do you any good at the tables.

I understood. I wrote an whole article on just that recently, and have said the below many times over the last few years. And yes, I know GTO+ and the owner of the software very well. Just spoke to him a couple of days ago.It used to be CRev. And yes, there's lots of bad assumptions that are made based on the strategy you're assuming for your opponent. But that's another post.

Excerpt from article:
First of all, if you’re unsure what playing a GTO based style of poker means, it essentially just means that you’re balancing the actions you take with an entire range of hands you’d play in any given poker spot, and making it so that no matter what decision your opponent makes, he can’t win. That sounds great, but the other part of that is that you don’t win either. If two people are playing GTO poker, the EV (expected value) of any given hand long term would be 0 (yes, that’s zero). So why in the world would you try and implement a strategy with a zero EV?

By understanding what the most optimal lines are with a range of hands in a poker situation, then you can recognize when your opponent ISN’T taking those optimal lines. Once you recognize that, you can then EXPLOIT that flaw in their game. At that point, you’d switch from playing a GTO strategy, to an exploitative strategy. In an exploitative strategy, you are maximizing the most you can make in a given situation, without concern for how balanced your range of hands plays in a given spot because your opponent doesn’t understand what the proper balance is.

Whole article. I'd suggest reading the hand example because this is the core problem with misapplying GTO strategy:
http://pokerzion.com/gto-poker-profitable-micro-small-stakes/

My whole entire point is nothing more than, why are you betting so small? If you don't FULLY understand that reasoning, then you're leaving EV on the table everywhere. It's just burning money.

To take this full circle, I was one of the first people in the poker community talking about balanced ranges. You can watch videos of me from over 12+ years ago talking about best flop textures to check top pair. And at that time, 2+2 and other poker communities thought I was nuts.

.

Figaroo2 · Jan 19, 2019

KJ is still a hand strong enough to bet the flop but we are starting to get towards the bottom of our category 1 bet for value range against thinking players. Our value betting range varies according to the villain type of course. If we have a drooler calling you down with 4th pair then we can value bet a 9!

Not being disrepectful but It sort of feels like Brave (from his first post in the thread... "i dont like the cbet" doesnt fully understand postflop hand categories and the fundamental reasons for when we should bet or check.

Gto often seems to fly in the face of those fundamentals just for the sake of balance.
We should still be making the obvious play the majority of the time even against good players.

mbrenneman0 · Jan 19, 2019

John, maybe Im misunderstanding you, but your response doesnt lead me to believe that youre fully understanding the applications of the software. Im not asking if you know the developer of the software, im asking if youve used it. Do you know the features of it? If I say "lock + edit" do you know what that means in context of this software?

mbrenneman0 · Jan 19, 2019

Figaroo2 said:
KJ is still a hand strong enough to bet the flop but we are starting to get towards the bottom of our category 1 bet for value range against thinking players. Our value betting range varies according to the villain type of course. If we have a drooler calling you down with 4th pair then we can value bet a 9!

against a decent reg out of position, whats the strongest hand in your checking range on this flop?

Not being disrepectful but It sort of feels like Brave (from his first post in the thread... "i dont like the cbet" doesnt fully understand postflop hand categories and the fundamental reasons for when we should bet or check.

I dont disagree

Gto often seems to fly in the face of those fundamentals just for the sake of balance.
We should still be making the obvious play the majority of the time even against good players.

I dont think braveslice is talking about the GTO solution when he talks about using the GTO+ software. that being said though, we see he found that cbetting is the best choice after using the software, so theres something to be said for it, but I dont know what assumptions he is making for the villain, especially when it comes to flop and turn play.

EL1t1 · Jan 19, 2019

I think with line we took, we should be calling this river some % of the time, but very low, we barely ever have straights ourselves as we most likely never trap in a spot like this where his range is very pair, 2pair, set heavy, while he might have some random floats that paired up on river and just dont think they beat enough to check back( he would have to be a decent player to realize this i guess ) so depends on the stats aswell, if hes a fish im probably folding this almost always, against good players im gonna call some low perc of the time, we dont have too many better hands in this spot as played, ok we do have sets & some 2 pairs but yeah AK is pretty high in our range still and if opponent is capable of turning like A J float into a bluff on the river we gotta have some calls.

EL1t1 · Jan 19, 2019

Also really dont like his river sizing, this is a board that he should go close to pot size bet or overbet to put us in tough spot with sets & 2pairs that almost always call this river size, yeah i know he might have bet this size coz he wants us to call with those,we might call a bigger bet aswell and he can just allow himself to bluff more in this spot if he chooses bigger sizing

braveslice · Jan 19, 2019

braveslice said:
ps. For some reason I don't like CB =) I have to look that a bit.

If we use 5 seconds to analyze the content of this sentence, we should see that:

a) Writer thinks CB is standard
b) Writer is confused why his instincts goes against the basics line and understands this sentence is controversial. He even goes to the length of using =) to pre-appease angry mop
c) Then the writer suggest that he must study this some more. Later he comes with the one solution why his instinct was against CB and types it out, but also finds out that his instincts were wrong. Also, the analysis was written way before criticism.

mbrenneman0 said:
, but I dont know what assumptions he is making for the villain, especially when it comes to flop and turn play.

I think this part (at least for me) is never going to be perfect if not even good. Then again even sub optimal solutions should have some value, similarly like for example putting villain to an imperfect range in equity calculator has.

$20 NLHE 6-max: Is AK ever good on this river?

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