$2 NLHE 6-max: Trips top kicker facing river shove 3bet pot

Q

quant1986

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888Poker Snap, Hold'em No Limit - $0.01/$0.02 - 6 players
Hand delivered by Upswing Poker

UTG: $1.30 (65 bb)
MP: $1.00 (50 bb)
CO: $1.92 (96 bb)
BU: $2.18 (109 bb)
SB: $1.76 (88 bb)
BB (Hero): $2.01 (101 bb)

Pre-Flop: ($0.03) Hero is BB with A♦ K♣
4 players fold, SB raises to $0.06, Hero 3-bets to $0.18, SB calls $0.12

Flop: ($0.36) Q♥ A♥ 7♦ (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $0.27, SB calls $0.27


Turn: ($0.90) J♦ (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks

River: ($0.90) A♠ (2 players)
SB bets $1.31 (all-in), Hero ??


Villain VPIP/PFR/3bet/AF = 29/11/6.3/1.3 over 65 hands
 
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Gabe16

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$2 NLHE 6-max: Trips top kicker facing river shove 3bet pot

From a theory point of view we have to defend 40% of our range. Pot odds are 37%.

I think there’s a chance villain has Ax here, and after your turn check and hitting trips might be too excited. Also although really unlikely but this could be a good spot to turn a missed fd into a bluff.

So we need to win 37% of the time. It’s a big number, I think it’s close tbh. Depending on if you bet jj on this flop we get here with stronger holdings. Houses in AQ, AJ, QQ and JJ. But given the levels crazy nature, our under repped holdings and the missed draws I think a calls correct. It won’t mean much in the long run. We block enough of the terrible stuff.

Bet the turn.
 
Last edited:
Hujiko

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Would fold here. He called your 3 bet preflop so would give him credit for having a reasonable hand (his VIP PFR also says hes not loose preflop). Be aware that there are not many flush draws that missed this board completely and arrived at the river.

Now what reasonable hands will call your flop raise?
Sets: 4 combos
3x77 ? on the low side but SB vs BB could be, 1xAA (not likely would 4 bet preflop and there is only one), 3xQQ (also not likely due to 4 bet preflop) lets count 1x QQ
Two pair: 3 combos
AQ only the others should fold preflop 3 combos
Straights/Flush draws: 3 combos
KJ, KT, JT of hearts
One pair hands: 12 combos
3xAKo 1xAJs, 1xATs, 2xKQs, 2xQJs, 3xQTs

On the turn it goes check check. Making your range look weak.

On the river he shoves. If he shoves with missed flush draws and all other complete garbage and checks his one pairs for show down value and shoves his full houses and his straight then he has either:
One pair hand 5 combos that you beat
2xKQs + 3xQTs
Two pair hands 2 combos that you beat
2 QJs
Straights 1 combo that beat you
1xKTs (hearts)
Full houses 8 combos that beat you
3x77 ?, 1x QQ, 3xAQs, 1x AJs
Missed flush draws 0
Trips 5 combos
3x AKo, 2xATs

There are no flush draws left that missed this board completely. So which hands will bluff at this river that are either nutty or have reasonable showdown value against the hands it would wants to fold out.
 
Matt Vaughan

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I am partially in agreement with Gabe that as played, especially at these stakes, villain can have Ax and we have to call with this holding.

I also don't think we particularly need to be the turn. Yes it's the micros, but it's still a MUCH better card for villain's range than ours imo, and it's nice to have a hand as strong as AK in our turn check back range sometimes.

With that being said though, river is a must call if AK is one of if not the strongest hand we reach river with in the given action. But we're definitely still losing this pot a very non-zero amount facing this action. I'm assuming we got shown AQ or AJ.
 
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Gabe16

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Hujiko said:
Would fold here. He called your 3 bet preflop so would give him credit for having a reasonable hand (his VIP PFR also says hes not loose preflop). Be aware that there are not many flush draws that missed this board completely and arrived at the river.

Now what reasonable hands will call your flop raise?
Sets: 4 combos
3x77 ? on the low side but SB vs BB could be, 1xAA (not likely would 4 bet preflop and there is only one), 3xQQ (also not likely due to 4 bet preflop) lets count 1x QQ
Two pair: 3 combos
AQ only the others should fold preflop 3 combos
Straights/Flush draws: 3 combos
KJ, KT, JT of hearts
One pair hands: 12 combos
3xAKo 1xAJs, 1xATs, 2xKQs, 2xQJs, 3xQTs

On the turn it goes check check. Making your range look weak.

On the river he shoves. If he shoves with missed flush draws and all other complete garbage and checks his one pairs for show down value and shoves his full houses and his straight then he has either:
One pair hand 5 combos that you beat
2xKQs + 3xQTs
Two pair hands 2 combos that you beat
2 QJs
Straights 1 combo that beat you
1xKTs (hearts)
Full houses 8 combos that beat you
3x77 ?, 1x QQ, 3xAQs, 1x AJs
Missed flush draws 0
Trips 5 combos
3x AKo, 2xATs

There are no flush draws left that missed this board completely. So which hands will bluff at this river that are either nutty or have reasonable showdown value against the hands it would wants to fold out.
Click to expand...



I think we need an sb rfi and 3B fold stat to make him that tight. Like I can see a lot more fd’s sb vs bb. Unless villain over folds to 3B’s.

Like the analysis here though!
 
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Gabe16

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Scourrge said:
I am partially in agreement with Gabe that as played, especially at these stakes, villain can have Ax and we have to call with this holding.

I also don't think we particularly need to be the turn. Yes it's the micros, but it's still a MUCH better card for villain's range than ours imo, and it's nice to have a hand as strong as AK in our turn check back range sometimes.

With that being said though, river is a must call if AK is one of if not the strongest hand we reach river with in the given action. But we're definitely still losing this pot a very non-zero amount facing this action. I'm assuming we got shown AQ or AJ.
Click to expand...



It feels a fairly neutral card to me. We probably have all the KT. Does villain? And JJ?
 
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Hujiko said:
Would fold here. He called your 3 bet preflop so would give him credit for having a reasonable hand (his VIP PFR also says hes not loose preflop). Be aware that there are not many flush draws that missed this board completely and arrived at the river.

Now what reasonable hands will call your flop raise?
Sets: 4 combos
3x77 ? on the low side but SB vs BB could be, 1xAA (not likely would 4 bet preflop and there is only one), 3xQQ (also not likely due to 4 bet preflop) lets count 1x QQ
Two pair: 3 combos
AQ only the others should fold preflop 3 combos
Straights/Flush draws: 3 combos
KJ, KT, JT of hearts
One pair hands: 12 combos
3xAKo 1xAJs, 1xATs, 2xKQs, 2xQJs, 3xQTs

On the turn it goes check check. Making your range look weak.

On the river he shoves. If he shoves with missed flush draws and all other complete garbage and checks his one pairs for show down value and shoves his full houses and his straight then he has either:
One pair hand 5 combos that you beat
2xKQs + 3xQTs
Two pair hands 2 combos that you beat
2 QJs
Straights 1 combo that beat you
1xKTs (hearts)
Full houses 8 combos that beat you
3x77 ?, 1x QQ, 3xAQs, 1x AJs
Missed flush draws 0
Trips 5 combos
3x AKo, 2xATs

There are no flush draws left that missed this board completely. So which hands will bluff at this river that are either nutty or have reasonable showdown value against the hands it would wants to fold out.
Click to expand...

I don't think utilizing the VPIP/PFR stats is a wise move in these SB v BB situations at this level. People do lots of crazy and spewy things in these spots all the time. I think the ranges are much wider than this and its an easy call for hero here.
 
Matt Vaughan

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Gabe16 said:
It feels a fairly neutral card to me. We probably have all the KT. Does villain? And JJ?
Click to expand...


I would assume the preflop raiser/caller here has much more KT than the preflop 3bettor, but that's obviously dependent on the specific players, and frankly I play very few BvB pots in cash games so I could be a bit off here range wise.
 
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Gabe16

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Scourrge said:
I would assume the preflop raiser/caller here has much more KT than the preflop 3bettor, but that's obviously dependent on the specific players, and frankly I play very few BvB pots in cash games so I could be a bit off here range wise.
Click to expand...



You might be right. I’ve not looked af my ranges here for a while. I doubt I get past the removal that KT has vs what should be a wide range when 3Betting really puts sb in a tight spot. I might be over doing it.
 
Matt Vaughan

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Gabe16 said:
You might be right. I’ve not looked af my ranges here for a while. I doubt I get past the removal that KT has vs what should be a wide range when 3Betting really puts sb in a tight spot. I might be over doing it.
Click to expand...


It's just my gut for these stakes that SB will retain almost all KTo, whereas I'm very unsure whether it's a "standard" BB 3bet here, and whether the OP will as well, is what I'm driving at.

I think what's so tough about spots like these is that what our own range is at each step matters quite a bit, but a lot of times we are doing fairly different stuff, especially in such a dynamic situation like BvB.
 
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Sidetracked

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As played I think that's a clear call. But why check the turn? With the blind vs blind dynamic he can call 3 streets with a way worse hand than yours.
 
Hujiko

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Wiliest said:
I don't think utilizing the VPIP/PFR stats is a wise move in these SB v BB situations at this level. People do lots of crazy and spewy things in these spots all the time. I think the ranges are much wider than this and its an easy call for hero here.
Click to expand...

The major point is not the VIP/PFR thing is that not a lot of hands could continue that way to the river and bluff at the river or are you suggesting that he is making a thin value bet and that AK will beat his value hand?

And what range are you putting him on that would play that way with an A on the flop and call the 3 betters cbet?
 
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