$2 NLHE 6-max: folding a set to donk jam 2X pot

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pokeherface

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pokerstars - $0.02 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

SB: 121 BB
BB: 100 BB
UTG: 158.5 BB
CO: 157 BB
Hero (BTN): 100 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 3s 3d
fold, CO raises to 3 BB, Hero calls 3 BB, fold, BB calls 2 BB

Flop : (9.5 BB, 3 players) Qd 6h 5c
BB checks, CO checks, Hero checks

Turn : (9.5 BB, 3 players) 3h
BB bets 4.5 BB, fold, Hero raises to 15 BB, BB calls 10.5 BB

River : (39.5 BB, 2 players) 8d
BB bets 82 BB and is all-in, fold

the only thing I can 90% be certain about here is hes not doing this with anything less than 2pair maybe the occasional KQ that he doesn't 3bet preflop and still it probably wouldn't make sense to jam R. with it ,well.. at least not to me that goes to say with worst top pairs too like QJ QT even then I dont think hes always donk jamming 2x r. with missed FD's

im putting him on a very narrow range but there's just not too many hands that he bet/c turn and donk/j r 2x pot here the only problem is if we put him on the nuts (79s) how many more hands can we put in as speculative hands that at a tiny percentage bet river too even 98 78 22 44 77's all have SDV on T/R total Air is A2s A4s
 
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pokeherface

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also hes not as insane maniac after 19 hands 21/11/0 3b
 
Aballinamion

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PokerStars - $0.02 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

SB: 121 BB
BB: 100 BB
UTG: 158.5 BB
CO: 157 BB
Hero (BTN): 100 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 3s 3d
fold, CO raises to 3 BB, Hero calls 3 BB, fold, BB calls 2 BB

Flop : (9.5 BB, 3 players) Qd 6h 5c
BB checks, CO checks, Hero checks

Turn : (9.5 BB, 3 players) 3h
BB bets 4.5 BB, fold, Hero raises to 15 BB, BB calls 10.5 BB

River : (39.5 BB, 2 players) 8d
BB bets 82 BB and is all-in, fold

the only thing I can 90% be certain about here is hes not doing this with anything less than 2pair maybe the occasional KQ that he doesn't 3bet preflop and still it probably wouldn't make sense to jam R. with it ,well.. at least not to me that goes to say with worst top pairs too like QJ QT even then I dont think hes always donk jamming 2x r. with missed FD's

im putting him on a very narrow range but there's just not too many hands that he bet/c turn and donk/j r 2x pot here the only problem is if we put him on the nuts (79s) how many more hands can we put in as speculative hands that at a tiny percentage bet river too even 98 78 22 44 77's all have SDV on T/R total Air is A2s A4s

After CO raises and BTN calls, the players sitting in the Big Blind are going to feel they have much better odds than usual and they are going to start calling very light in scenarios like this:

Big Blind Defense Range when CO opens and BTN or/and SB calls:

88-22, A9s-A2s, K2s+, Q2s+, J2s+, T6s+, 96s+, 86s+, 75s+, 64s+, 53s+, 42s+, 32s, ATo-A2o, K9o+, Q8o+, J7o+, T9o, 98o, 87o, 76o, 65o (43%)

Now, of course this Big Blind Calling range is going to change a lot depending on who we are playing with. Some players are going to call here with 99 and TT, others are going to Squeeze.
The same logic applies to ATo+ and ATs+, some are going to flat, some are going to Squeeze preflop.

We observe, in general, that BB can be calling with a bunch of aces, suited and off-suited, all the Kings, Queens and Jacks suited, and a lot of connectors and suited connectors.

Having said that, let's take a look at it:

The Preflop

It is okay to be calling down with all of our pocket pairs here because players at the micros are not going to 3-bet so often. We can be 3-betting all of our pocket pairs versus CO when either the player in the CO is weak and folds too much to 3-bet or the player in the Big Blind calls too much and we don't want to play a 3-way pot.

As said before, when BB calls down it can have a thousand of hands.

The postflop

The Flop

We assume that BB isn't holding hands like QQ or AQ, and sometimes not even KQ, we assume BB would be 3-betting preflop more often than calling.
We assume BB can have hands like 65, Q5s and Q6s, but just a couple of combos.
Other hands like 87, 74, 73, (almost never), 42, are also on BB's range and all of that stuff can be checking the flop, so it doesn't help very much.

The Turn

It completes a bottom set for us and BB comes for 1/2 pot, now BB can have Q3, Q5s, Q6s, 65, 63, 53, 42, 74, (73), 87, etc, plus the FDs and SDs, plus the sets with 66 and 55.
I like our raise OTT because our hands here need protection, I also like the size utilized (Pot), and BB can have a lot of missed draws and weaker hands.

The River

When BB comes donk-shoving the river we must ask how many bluffs there are into BB's ranges and we don't see many: we don't think the player in the BB is going to bluff rivers like this so often and it can has now a couple of hands that beat us:
We must count the value combos and the bluff combos, and of course we are going to find a thousands bluffs on BB's calling range, compared to the value hands, but we know that recreational players are not the bluff masters.
Hands that have us beat are only 88, 66, 55 and the straights.
We don't beat any particular hand OTR, because it is hard to imagine a passive player shoving this river with Qx, or a Two Pair, after we had raised it OTT.

BB should be either jamming its draws OTT or folding. When it calls it demonstrate a lot of power and there is nothing else we can do OTR but to fold.

Regards;

Carlos 'Aballinamion' Barbosa
 
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pokeherface

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I have no regrets of folding here but there's one thing I dont agree with


the bb as an unknown is not going to be calling that wide (unless hes fishy )all of the time and if he is we have a clear call on the river because he can have Qx he might think is good this is purely based on him being an unknown and this player pool is never donk jamming river 2x pot as a bluff
 
John A

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Here's my long and complicated answer.... ez fold at these stakes.

He's going to show up with the nuts WAYYY more times then you'll see a bluff here. If you folded every single time in these spots w/o thinking, you'd be a profitable player.
 
Aballinamion

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I have no regrets of folding here but there's one thing I dont agree with


the bb as an unknown is not going to be calling that wide (unless hes fishy )all of the time and if he is we have a clear call on the river because he can have Qx he might think is good this is purely based on him being an unknown and this player pool is never donk jamming river 2x pot as a bluff

For 2 NLHE you are right, our BB calling range is a little bit tighter, but even so it is something like 30% range in situations where our odds are too great.
We don't expect many professionals at 2 NLHE, most are fish anyway.
We cannot say the pool is doing this or that because there are thousands of players for 2 NLHE. Besides, 'never' is a very strong word, we should try to avoid it. :D

Regards;

Carlos 'Aballinamion' Barbosa
 
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pokeherface

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thanks guys i was expecting a lot of

"bro just call"
but really thinking and reviewing this hand its actually a spot I will start thinking about folding or at least taking as long as I did in the hand its not like im a nitty player I play 26/20 over a large sample but I think it takes someone who is really thinking about these spots who become Winners IMO
 
freddydr87

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I dont fold in there,in NL2 peaple tend to overvalue his hands so a Set is a monster even iff it is the lower set, iff he had the nuts or a beter set is ok is a cooler,u have to louse to win in poker,wath u cant do iff fold so strong hand. Iff u think in hs entire rangue u are in front by 70/30 in that river so u have give up off a lot off bb that will make ur bb/100 sofer a lot,there are some hands that u just louse.
 
jaworek1405

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Hello, I agree, I also don't fold set on this board and on nl2, because on nl2 is a lot of weak players. The board seems even safe for me. Not many hands beat us, properly only one hand beat us 47 s or 47o, another hands 97o and 97s are less possible, because hero played raise on the turn and only some fishes can call the turn with 97 to complete the straight for 4 outs. It is very risky move to complete the straight for 4 outs. Set vs set it is also very less possible situation. If opponent also has a set it is very hard, but it happens very rarely. Hero wins with many hands like two pairs, many hand is possible in opponent's range on defending big blind like 86, 63, 56 etc. Gl :)
 
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pokeherface

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Hello, I agree, I also don't fold set on this board and on nl2, because on nl2 is a lot of weak players. The board seems even safe for me. Not many hands beat us, properly only one hand beat us 47 s or 47o, another hands 97o and 97s are less possible, because hero played raise on the turn and only some fishes can call the turn with 97 to complete the straight for 4 outs. It is very risky move to complete the straight for 4 outs. Set vs set it is also very less possible situation. If opponent also has a set it is very hard, but it happens very rarely. Hero wins with many hands like two pairs, many hand is possible in opponent's range on defending big blind like 86, 63, 56 etc. Gl :)


if hes defending hands like 63o 56o 86o even 79o and I know that its an easy call but given all the information and how the hand played I just think were up only against 55/66 (6) 65s (2) 79s (4) and literally thats it best case scenario were up against KQs( 3)that he doesn't 3b and some A2H (1) A4 (1) if were up against this range we have 40% but if we take out even A2s of hearts and A4s hearts we have 33% we need 40%
 
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