light 4bet range?
Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 30/17/2
iPoker - €0.02 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4
UTG: 207 BB
MP: 103.5 BB
CO: 100 BB
BTN: 130 BB
SB: 101 BB
Hero (BB): 136.5 BB
SB posts SB 0.5 BB,
Hero posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has K
♥ A
♠
UTG raises to 3 BB,
fold,
fold,
fold,
fold,
Hero raises to 9 BB,
UTG raises to 19 BB,
Hero calls 10 BB
Flop: (38.5 BB, 2 players) K
♠ 3
♦ 9
♥
Hero checks,
UTG bets 26.5 BB,
Hero calls 26.5 BB
Turn: (91.5 BB, 2 players) Q
♥
Hero checks,
UTG bets 91.5 BB,
Hero ?????
I called this but really think I should have folded. What would you do?
I know villain has to show up with AA or KK here quite often. QQ just made a set on that turn also. All of those have me beat. If KQ got here that has me beat too. JT is a very unlikely 4 Bet... but it is 2NL so expect the unexpected, and that has me beat too.
What do I actually beat that made it here? AQ. And then I'm chopping with any AK. The aggressive play post flop does not suggest anything weaker eg AJs, JJ.
Only about 25 hands on villain, so the stats don't show a whole lot, but perhaps enough to indicate they are not a maniac and probably I should have respected their 4 Bet range when combined with the aggressive post flop play, and therefore folded that turn.
Hi there GreenDaddy1 good morning, how you doing? Thank you very much for sharing your hand with the CardsChat community! Very good one. (and tough)
Well, you said yourself "
I called this but really think I should have folded. What would you do?"
Sometimes we are bored because we aren't fighting for a pot for so long that we decide to enter in a dangerous situation, like this.
Before making a 3bet in position (CO or BTN) versus UTG you gotta ask yourself a couple of questions:
A) How much UTG will fold to a preflop 3bet?
B) How much UTG will 4bet?
Unfortunately, these are data that we hardly gonna have. To have a secure statistic of how much players 3bet and Fold to 3bet preflop we must have at least one thousand hands played with villain (1000 hands).
To calculate how much players 4bet preflop, I would say that we need at least five thousand hands for a proper statistic (5000 hands).
What do we know for experience is that players almost never 4bet for bluff at the micros.
This is why I believe to be a default 4betting range at the micros:
KK+, AKs, A5s-A2s, AKo (3%) Consider that many players at the micros would never 4bet A5s-A2s for bluff, because they simply don't have a 4bet
bluffing range.
Versus this range of 3% our AKo it is breakeven preflop.
In the flop you have the advantage because you have position and I believe that versus this 3% range you are doing quite well. (Virtually, only losing for AA and KK)
I didn't put the combos of QQ and KQ in UTG's 4bet range because I believe it would have flatted with these combos. However, many players at the micros believe that QQ is a good hand to 4bet for value. I don't think so.
The reality is: there are only two real hands that could be beating us right now in the flop, and those are almost blocked due to the card removal (we are blocking some combos of AA and KK).
But the reality of the game is real hard, isn't it? When a passive player like this (VPIP 30 Aggression Factor 2) bets 26.5 blinds for a pot of 38.5 blinds we know that UTG means serious business. It is really bad because we know that Villain has all the AA and KK in its range right now and we have none. (If we had AA and KK would we really be flatting in the BTN?)
So, UTG's has a slightly range advantage upon us, and the C-bet flop is nonsense for the practical point of view. This is a real dry flop, rainbow where the only possible connection is with K and 9, and we know that both BTN and UTG are not in this range.
Logically thinking, if UTG had the nuts (Sets of K's) would it be polarizing its range that much and betting in a dry flop where the nuts doesn't need protection at all?
If UTG had AA it could not be betting that much in the flop because BTN can and will have a couple of KK in its range. So?
We gotta observe very patiently the size bets players make at the micros, they are almost screaming what they have! For example, some players are dealt AA in the EP and raise 5x, 6x. Some players are dealt AA and KK preflop from the BTN and make a 3bet of 3.5x, 4x preflop versus players out of position! This is something to observe!
In the particular case, UTG made a decent 4bet size to your 3bet (UTG 4bets 2.1x versus your 9x 3bet).
IMO, UTG polarized a lot its range, which forces us to call this turn bet from time to time given that we don't know this Villain at all (25 hands sample is not enough for proper decision making).
I would say that we gotta be calling here 50% of times and folding 50%, because by the same token that UTG is screaming strength, it is screaming weakness. It sucks, because Villain is gonna show a lot of AA and KK in a spot like that and we are doomed. It sucks because for the times Villain shows another AK we are breakeven and we lost a huge ammount of blinds to the poker house (Rake).
Sometimes a player will show with QQ that it decided to 4bet preflop and bluff flop with a K on it. (many players at the micros never look to the board, only to their hands)
No matter what happened, what really matters here is that you should have put a note in the player of how it acted the way it acted and move on!
Remember, consider that passive players like this UTG Villain don't know how or where to bluff! When they put a lot of chips in the middle, in a nonsense spot like this, most of times it is the cold stone nuts! Look that its VPIP is 30 and its Aggression Factor is only 2, which means it is betting and raising more values than bluffs, the great majority of times.
I hope it helps you! Any question, please do not hesitate to ask
Regards;
Carlos 'Aballinamion' Barbosa
