$100 NLHE 6-max: VBet river seem okay here?

$100 NL HE 6-max: VBet river seem okay here?

Is he showing up with better here often? And more important, is he calling with worse? If you're value betting, how much are you doing it for? And yeah, I realize preflop is meh-ish. I'm pretty sure villain's stats were around 18/14 at this point, but just over 40 hands or so, so not really important.

pokerstars Game #27480141189: Hold'em No Limit ($0.50/$1.00) - 2009/04/25 18:52:38 WET [2009/04/25 13:52:38 ET]
Table 'Limburgiaou III' 6-max Seat #6 is the button
Seat 1: S_Vogel81 ($251.15 in chips)
Seat 2: Hermaion ($274.85 in chips)
Seat 3: moneyfrank ($62.50 in chips)
Seat 4: Mr_Manne ($86.30 in chips)
Seat 5: Ayelu ($101.10 in chips)
Seat 6: txiago ($100 in chips)
S_Vogel81: posts small blind $0.50
Hermaion: posts big blind $1
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to txiago [Th Ad]
moneyfrank: folds
Mr_Manne: folds
Ayelu: raises $2 to $3
txiago: calls $3
S_Vogel81: folds
Hermaion: folds
*** FLOP *** [Js Ah Kd]
Ayelu: bets $4
txiago: calls $4
*** TURN *** [Js Ah Kd] [3c]
Ayelu: bets $8
txiago: calls $8
*** RIVER *** [Js Ah Kd 3c] [2h]
Ayelu: checks
txiago: ???

I think you're ahead almost always. He's also rarely calling a river bet though. I'd throw out something like $10 (pot is $30 now) and let him convince himself he's getting good enough odds to call with his KQ.

Yeah I'd just bet ~1/2 pot or something hoping to get called by a weaker ace, maybe a king if you're lucky. If he somehow raises it's obviously an easy fold.

There are five Ax hands that beat us and six that we beat. We're ahead of KQ but behind KJ and really, how many other hands are likely to have raised preflop then bet two streets? Something like QJ surely tries for a free card on one street?

So call me a wuss but the way we've played it I think I just check behind here. We're just barely ahead of the villain's range plus I'd hate our hand if villain decided to get clever and check-raise.